近代文化嬗变中“新音乐”的发展历程

中国近代史上的新音乐运动 ,起步于依声 (外国曲调 )填词的学堂乐歌 ,发展于五四以后“新国民乐派”的声乐、器乐和歌舞形式 ,而成熟于抗战时期的全民歌咏运动。在此历程中 ,新音乐逐渐找到“乐”的时代脉搏和民族本根 ,并且在中国社会动员中发挥了独特的作用     

An evolutionary explanation for risk aversion

Recent models of the evolution of preferences have provided profound new insights into the origins of risk attitudes. In most of these models the evolutionary “objective function” is the maximization of the expected number of offspring, or alternatively, the maximization of the geometric-mean growth rate. We suggest that careful consideration should also be given to the objective of maximizing the probability of Having Descendants Forever, p(HDF). We show that the p(HDF) criterion implies risk aversion. Moreover, it leads to preferences that are very closely approximated by the constant relative risk aversion preferences. Thus, constant relative risk aversion can be viewed as an evolutionary-developed heuristic aimed to maximize the probability of having descendants forever.     

华东回族的抗日救亡斗争

回族抗日历史,是中国抗日战争史的一部分,是回族史的重要组成部分。全面研究回族抗日史,不仅发扬了回族人民的优良传统,还有现实的政治意义。华东回族为保卫祖国,抗击日本法西斯,前仆后继,英勇战斗,为中国的抗日战争及世界反法西斯战争的胜利作出了突出贡献。     

“蚁族”群体的形成和消亡机制研究

"蚁族"现象的产生受诸多因素的制约,由于"蚁族"群体的特殊性及其存在和发展可能引发的社会问题的严重性,"蚁族"现象也越发成为近年来社会关注的焦点。按照社会发展的规律来看,"蚁族"在群体自身的努力与社会支持等多方面因素的共同作用下,在一定时期后自然消亡,但由于这种调节功能发挥作用的周期较长,且具有一定的不可预测性,将使这一段时期内出现许多影响社会发展的消极负面因素。通过引导群体形成良好认知促进自行消亡。深化教育体制改革阻断群体新生来源,完善公共事业管理体系促进自然消亡途径加速"蚁族"群体消亡的进程刻不容缓。     

现代社会中自耕农持久生命力原因探析

以亚当·斯密、马克思为代表的＂小农消亡论＂者指出随着农业现代化的推进,自耕农必然被资本主义雇佣农场代替,但当今世界自耕农经营方式仍然占据主导地位,表明斯密和马克思的判断没有成为现实。以恰亚诺夫、舒尔茨为代表的＂理性小农论＂者指出自耕农比雇佣农场更有效率,能够适应农业现代化的要求,他们的论断与社会现实相符合,但＂理性小农＂的解释并不能令人信服。农业生产制度的创新、自耕农生产较低的监督成本、农业生产独特的时空特点等因素,是自耕农兴盛的主要原因。     

广东吴川吉兆海话的四种语音成分

吉兆海话源自莆田闽语。600年来,它走过了一条自我封闭、刻意求异的内部发展道路。它受到粤语的强烈冲击,主动吸收大量的壮语成分,将母方言进行改造,自造新音新词,因而包含了极为复杂的四种语音成分,而又一直没有读书音的规范制约。它的奇异和复杂,使得交际功能大为减弱,濒于消亡。     

Some New Bounds on the Probability of Extinction of a Galton–Watson Process with Numerical Comparisons

Some new upper and lower bounds for the extinction probability of a Galton–Watson process are presented. They are very easy to compute and can be used even if the offspring distribution has infinite variance. These new bounds are numerically compared to previously discussed bounds. Some definite guidelines are given concerning when these new bounds are preferable. Some open problems are also discussed.     

Parameter identification for a stochastic logistic growth model with extinction

We consider a stochastic logistic growth model given by a stochastic differential equation, for which extinction can occur. We first propose appropriate adaptation of some standard inference methods when the process is observed at discrete time. Second, we show that the individual birth and death can be identified separately to some extent.     

A management policy for sika deer based on sex-specific hunting

We consider here a management policy for a sika deer (Cervus nippon) population in the eastern part of Hokkaido. Deer populations are characterized by a large intrinsic rate of population increase, no significant density effects on population growth before population crash, and a relatively simple life history. Our goals of management for the deer population are (1) to avoid irruption with severe damage to agriculture and forestry, (2) to avoid the risk of extinction of the deer population, and (3) to maintain a sustainable yield of deer. To make a robust program on the basis of uncertain information about the deer population, we consider three levels of relative population size and four levels of hunting pressures. We also take into consideration a critical level for extinction, an optimal level, and an irruption level. The hunting pressure for females is set to increase with the population size. We also recommend catching males if the population size is between the critical and optimal levels and catching females and males if the population size is larger than the optimal level. We must avoid cases of irruption or threatened population under various sets of uncertain parameter values. The simulation results suggest that management based on sex-specific hunting is effective to diminish the annual variation in hunting yield. Received: April 8, 1998 / Accepted: December 25, 1998     

Increased variability in tacting under a lag 3 schedule of reinforcement

Research has shown that variability may be an operant dimension of behavior. One method of reinforcing response variability is to use a lag schedule of reinforcement (Page & Neuringer, 1985). Several studies have shown that a Lag 1 schedule is effective in increasing variable responding with human participants (e.g., Esch, Esch, & Love, 2009; Lee, McComas, & Jawor, 2002). In these arrangements, however, the return to baseline responding during reversal phases suggests that the resulting behavior change may not be maintained following intervention. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effects of a Lag 3 schedule on increasing and maintaining variability of tacts in 2 children diagnosed with developmental disabilities. Results demonstrated increased variability in tacting for both participants and maintenance in variable responding after a 3-week follow-up.