阿盟发展缺失及其对上合组织的启示

阿拉伯国家联盟是当今世界成立最早的几个地区性国际组织之一。在其六十多年的发展历程中,从维护阿拉伯国家整体利益来看,其成绩并不理想。本文对阿盟的发展缺失的表现及其原因进行了分析,并探索了其对上海合作组织完善和发展过程中的启示。     

An Assessment of Change in Risk Perception and Optimistic Bias for Hurricanes Among Gulf Coast Residents

This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two‐year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow‐up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t‐tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross‐lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross‐lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables’ effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness.     

两晋军府与尚书机构关系考论

两晋时期军府制度逐渐发展定型，并对以尚书制度为核心的国家政治体制产生重大影响，其表现为：在中央层面，加兵公常领录尚书事，或兼领尚书令；地方镇将常兼领尚书省长官。这样，在国家政治生活中就出现了军府制断尚书事，甚至在非常时期成为替代尚书省的“国务总汇”机构，以及军府掾属权过尚书干涉政务等等不正常的现象。这些现象的产生，在一定程度上表明了两晋时期国家政治体制的孱弱。     

“甬台经济合作区”建设构想与实现路径分析

文章从当前两岸关系不断推进和宁波市与台湾地区（简称＂甬台＂）经贸合作快速发展的实际出发,通过分析当前＂甬台经济合作区＂构建的必要性和可行性,提出了＂甬台经济合作区＂的建设框架、实现路径和相应策略措施。建议将宁波市现有的＂保税区＂、＂经济开发区＂等5个国家级开发区,逐步建设成为具有＂自由贸易区＂性质的、呈现＂三核三带＂特征的＂甬台经济合作区＂,为ECFA背景下两岸范围更广、层次更高的交流合作提供参考,促进两岸关系发展和区域经济一体化。     

从利益输送引导的合作到长期合作治理的组织——K村互助基金会的个案研究

文章根据真实的素材,复原了K村互助基金会18年的历程,探究了利益输送怎样引导村民合作以及如何以利益输送为契机组建村民长期合作治理组织的问题,分析了这个内生于村庄社会的治理组织稳健成长的要件和实践的学理意义。研究提示,村民事前能得到组织者的利益输送是村民服从组织并选择合作的一个重要前提;领导者、组织和制度设计是保证村民合作治理的关键;培育合作组织并赋予组织资源是村民合作治理的重要保障;深入村庄的田野调查和体验村庄生活的方法有助于揭示对合作治理有重大影响但被流行的量化实证研究所轻易遮蔽和排除掉的随机因素。     

“两伊问题”困扰中的美国海湾战略选择

伊战后,美国的海湾战略屡屡受挫,在中东面临危机多元化和扩散化的严重挑战。在伊拉克陷阱和伊朗核问题的双重困扰下,小布什政府及其后任可能的战略选择包括坚持原有“主导和预防行动”、采取“崩溃预防型”、恢复“稳定、威慑和遏制”、考虑“合作型秩序”等。但除非美国放弃独家主导海湾的霸权战略并调整其战略目标,否则难以在“支配”海湾地区和摆脱困境之间找到两全出路。     

The politics of gender in the UN Security Council resolutions on women,peace and security

Women’s groups have worked diligently to place gender and women’s vulnerability on the transnational security agenda. This article departs from the idea that negotiating and codifying gender and women’s vulnerability in terms of security represent a challenge to mainstream security contexts. By contrasting the UN Security Council resolutions on women, peace and security with feminist theory, this article aims to analyze what is considered to be threatened when women’s vulnerability is negotiated. The article identifies two approaches to the gender/security nexus: gendering security, which involves introducing ideas regarding gender-sensitive policies and equal representation, and securitizing gender, which proceeds by locating rape and sexual violence in the context of war regulations. We demonstrate that, although these measures are encouraged with reference to women’s vulnerability, they serve to legitimize war and the male soldier and both approaches depoliticize gender relations.     

习近平外交思想指向下中日关系发展的新定位

近年来中日关系逐步转寒回暖,无论政治交流氛围,还是经济合作环境都得到了较大改善,这离不开中国政府根据国际形势及中日关系的变化及时调整对日政策,也充分体现了习近平新时代中国特色社会主义外交思想对中日关系缓和发展的引领作用。在安倍首相访华及习近平主席出席大阪G20峰会之后,两国政府在努力建设契合新时代要求的中日关系上达成多点共识。中日双方将依托“一带一路”倡议和第三方市场合作的平台,进一步致力于深化经济合作,维护多边主义和自由贸易体制,共同培育新动能和新的增长点,加速东北亚区域命运共同体的构建。     

Social dilemmas: When self-control benefits cooperation

Individuals in a social dilemma may experience a self-control conflict between urges to act selfishly and their better judgment to cooperate. Pairing a public goods game with a subtle framing technique, we test whether perception of self-control conflict strengthens the association between self-control and cooperation. Consistent with our hypothesis, cooperative behavior is positively associated with self-control in the treatment that raised the relative likelihood of perceiving conflict, but not associated with self-control in the treatment that lowered the likelihood. These results indicate that it is important to understand the role of self-control in cooperation.     

基于因子分析的产学研合作教育影响因素研究

本文通过构建产学研合作教育影响因素的指标体系,运用因子分析法导出其中的主要影响因素,通过多元回归分析,进一步厘清各因子的影响程度,提出促进产学研合作教育人才培养机制的对策建议。