Size and duration of empires growth-decline curves, 3000 to 600 b.c.

Area changes of about 30 best known empires and states are compiled and tabulated. Superimposed and juxtaposed graphs (size versus time) help to visualize the relative size and location in time of these empires. Size-time integral, maximum stable size, adulthood date, and duration are defined operationally and are listed for 20 empires. A criterion is given for distinctness of successive empires. The size-time integral is a direct measure of an empire's impact on history insofar as that impact depends on sheer size and duration. The integral is largest for the Chinese Hsia-Shang, Egyptian New, Old, and Middle, Assyrian New, and Hittite empires. A world-wide territorial concentration index is tabulated. It increases during the period considered from 0.08 to 1.4% of the world dry land area.     

Chance in Guttman scaling

In their recent paper (1977, Social Science Research, 6, 188–196), Kenny and Rubin offer an interpretation of “chance” in Guttman scaling. Their approach is based on the matrix of probabilities p_ij, giving the chance that the ith respondent passes the jth item. It is shown that their interpretation of chance in fact corresponds to a stochastic model of a perfect unidimensional scale. An alternative condition for chance based on the matrix of p_ij's is proposed. This is then proved to be equivalent to the usual interpretation.     

How trade/GNP ratio decreases with country size

The ratio of a country's foreign trade (i.e., exports plus imports) to its GNP has a known tendency to decrease with country size. Previous studies have used a single year's data; but trade fluctuates greatly from year to year. This paper makes available a compilation of 1953–1972 export/GNP and import/GNP figures for 110 countries. The average import/GNP figure is found to correlate strongly with population size; the simple expression, Imports/GNP = 40 $\text{P}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>?1</mtext><mtext>3</mtext>}}$, applies, within a factor of 2, in 94% of cases. No correlation with development level can be seen. The United States data throughout its history (1799–1972) follow the same inverse cube root pattern, but with a constant of 20 instead of 40. Correlation is much poorer in the case of export/GNP ration. Export and import figures are only marginally correlated to each other.     

Size and duration of empires: Systematics of size

Areas of the world's three largest empires or states at any given time are listed at 100- or 50-year intervals, from 3000 b.c. on. Area measurement definitions and techniques are described. Major empire size has tended to increase, approaching the world's dry earth area in an approximately logistic way. This pattern suggests that a world state is still many centuries away. Sudden increases in empire size have occurred around 2800 b.c. due to emergence of cities, around 600 b.c. due to a power delegation breakthrough, and around 1600 a.d. due to a communication speed revolution. A graph of the world's largest empire areas throughout times offers somewhat novel perspectives on world history, making one realize the Western bias of many “world history” texts. Areas of 20 largest states that ever existed are listed. Subsequent papers will deal with historical periods in more detail.     

Professionalization of evaluative research: Conflict as a sign of health

Morell and Flaherty (1978) present arguments about the current status of evaluative research as a profession. This paper contains a critique, using a process model of professional development, of the perspectives employed by Morell and Flaherty. Issues discussed are the nature and substance of conflicts in evaluative research, including conflicts over methodological perspectives, the role of the evaluator in program planning, and the appropriate uses and users of evaluative information. The paper concludes with a discussion of the needs within the profession of evaluative research if it is to remain viable and responsive to change.     

The effect of restricted and unrestricted verdict options on juror choice

Data on the effect of limiting the number of verdict options open to jurors on the probability of acquittal are reanalyzed. Strong support is found for a model which postulates that jurors' preferences are single peaked with respect to an underlying verdict severity continuum. Limited support is found for an anchoring effect in which the addition of new verdict options affects the perceived relative fairness of other verdict options. The implication of the single-peakedness model is that some jurors will refuse to vote for conviction if the verdict (punishment) is seen as too harsh even though the defendant is perceived to be guilty of committing a crime.     

Balanced designs for triads tests: Two examples from English

In this paper we study two semantic domains in English, kinship and vegetables, using a new procedure for triads testing, the balanced incomplete block design. This procedure allows the use of triads tests on larger sets of words than had previously been possible. Included is a table of balanced incomplete block designs for the use of interested researchers.     

Changing stakeholder needs and changing evaluator roles: the Central Valley Partnership of the James Irvine foundation

This case describes the changing roles of an evaluator as the program he was evaluating changed and developed, and as the needs of his client and primary intended users changed over time. The focus in this case is on the relationship between the external evaluator and the staff of a philanthropic foundation as a major initiative unfolded. The focus of the evaluation was learning and improvement, and as the evaluator developed recommendations for organizational capacity-building, he was commissioned by the foundation to implement his own recommendations, a form of developmental evaluation. The case explores the dynamics and challenges of such an arrangement and relationship. Those involved have agreed to have their real names used because this is a highly visible initiative and attempting to disguise the foundation and key players might undermine, in this instance, the authenticity of the case. The initiative that is the focus of the case is the Central Valley Partnership of The James Irvine Foundation headquartered in San Francisco.     

Marabou Stork Nightmares: Irvine Welsh's anthropological vision

It has been suggested that the internal divisions in the notion of ‘Scottishness’ have led Scotland's Enlightenment writers to approach the nation with an ‘anthropological’ and ‘anthologising’ vision. In this article, I argue that we can see such a tendency in the work of the contemporary novelist Irvine Welsh, whose second novel, Marabou Stork Nightmares, dissects the masculinist tribalism of Scottish underclass culture. In performing the anthropological activity of observing and recording, Welsh anthologises Scotland's linguistic multiplicity and yet, through first person narrative, draws attention to the act of narration, the event of speaking which renders futile the possibility of detachment. Narrative complicity becomes paralleled with Scotland's guilty political history.