Credit access,macroprudential rules and policy interventions: Lessons for potential first time buyers

Given the increased popularity of macroprudential measures in the aftermath of the great financial crisis (GFC), a key policy question to arise in certain mortgage markets is whether a significant access to credit issue exists amongst prospective homeowners because of these new policies. In this paper we assess whether such a problem arises in the context of the Irish mortgage market – a market particularly adversely impacted by the GFC. We use a microsimulation model to estimate the level of latent credit demand that could be serviced by the market given prudent credit risk assessment and the current macroprudential regulations. We then compare this demand to current market provision to explore whether a credit gap exists. Finally, we simulate how a public mortgage credit scheme or equity “help-to-buy” type instrument may help credit access. We find both instruments to be effective but would lead to somewhat higher house prices.     

Predictors of Holding Consumer and Mortgage Debt among Older Americans

Using data from the 2000 Health and Retirement Study (HRS), this study examined the probability of older Americans holding consumer and mortgage debt. The specific objectives of this study were to identify to what extent individuals aged 65 and over hold consumer or mortgage debt and to investigate factors that influence the probability of holding consumer or mortgage debt in old age. The results of logistic regression analysis indicated that older individuals who had larger households, had higher levels of education, were aged 65–74, were married, were Black, and were employed, were more likely to hold consumer or mortgage debt. This study concluded that holding one kind of debt is associated with probability of holding another kind of debt.