Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

论普里什文哲理散文中的生态文学思想与猎人情结

普里什文哲理散文中所具有的预言式生态思想与环保理念备受当代“生态文学”理论家的青睐。但他热衷描写狩猎场景的猎人情结却又遭到新世纪中“生态伦理”理论的诟病。其实从文本的本体性观念来理解，普里什文的诗性自然情怀、生态观念与他的猎人情结并非只有冲突的一面，他所表达出的是人对大自然万物之本能与道义之间的尺度衡量，而这种衡量也可反观当代人与自然万物之间的关系的现状，实际上表达出一种更为深刻的天人关系的批判性。     

People with disability and new disaster communications: access and the social media mash-up

This article explores how a lack of access to increasingly complex and overlapping digital communications platforms in times of disaster for people with disabilities has the potential to make already life-threatening situations considerably more dangerous. As we are increasingly coming to rely on a social media mash-up of digital platforms to assist in communications during disaster situations, the issue of accessibility for people with disabilities is as dire as if it was high ground during a tsunami or transport during a typhoon. The contemporary social media environment is characterised by a complex and overlapping network of complementary platforms, populated by user-generated content, where people communicate and exchange ideas. In this environment, YouTube videos are posted to Facebook and embedded in blogs, and Twitter is used to link to these other sites and is itself embedded in other platforms. These networks are increasingly supplementing and supplanting more traditional communication platforms, such as the television and radio, particularly in times of disaster. The concern of this paper is that the elements from which this mash-up of communications channels is made are not always accessible to people with disabilities. This evolving network of social media-based communication exposes the limits of existing Internet-based universal design.     

构建立足“3R”的矿难治理预防管理体系

对劳动力载体的保护是劳动和社会保障的指向之一。面对矿难对劳动者生存权的侵蚀,加强矿难治理的准备工作,就成了生命对社会的合理诉求。这其中对劳动者生存权的尊重,也是构建和谐社会的应有之义。     

日本都道府县防灾无线网的建设及借鉴

日本是世界上灾害管理通信系统建设领先的国家,相关经验对我国灾害管理通信系统的建设有着重要的借鉴意义。都道府县防灾无线网是日本灾害管理通信系统的重要组成部分,已具备了较为成熟的建设模式和应用经验。本文介绍了日本灾害管理通信系统的框架、都道府县防灾无线网的体系架构及其通信系统组成,选择了神奈川县、长野县和三重县作为典型案例,对这三个县的防灾无线网的建设和应用情况作了分析,并借鉴日本的经验,结合我国的实际,提出了五个方面的建设建议。     

自然科学与基督教的关系探讨——以自然科学的起源和前沿为视角

文章首先通过分析自然科学与基督教方法论发展上的相似,来说明近代自然科学在本源上与基督教的紧密联系,论证了近代自然科学在基督教欧洲发生的必然性.其次通过阐述当代自然科学一些前沿问题的研究进展来证明自然科学和基督教世界观的内在一致性.最后试图以基督教和近代自然科学的关系为先导,提出一些具有现实价值的、值得各领域一起合作探索的问题.同时也希望本文能够纠正一些长久以来存在于人们脑海中由于特定宗教、文化和意识形态下以偏概全的观念.     

关于大都市灾害管理之研究——以日本大都市灾害管理为中心

本文以日本政府及东京等大城市灾害管理政策、行政体制及实例为对象,分析研究了大城市在自然灾害管理中所应注意的问题和经验教训,为大城市的灾害管理提供借鉴.     

模糊语言的独特功能

本文对模糊语言的独特功能从日常生活、文学作品、科学医学三方面进行了探讨 ,从而阐明在自然语言中 ,模糊语言是绝对的、普遍的。语言的模糊性缘于客观事物本身的模糊性及人们对客观世界认识的不确定性。     

由社会主体到自然主体——论宋代文人投身自然的几种表现形式

宋代文人投身自然 ,实质上是一种由社会主体向自然主体的角色转换 ,这种角色转换表现为 4个层面 :在行为上诗酒山林、随遇皆乐 ;在心理上“安于冲旷、不与众驱”;在思想上“无愧于中、无责于外”;在感情上“不以物喜、不以己悲”。这四个层面归结到一点 ,则是抒写山水 ,营造“心灵屋宇”。文人们在这些“心灵屋宇”中流泄的是真挚的情感 ,人生的顿悟和孤芳自赏的高洁品格     

长白山自然保护区科考旅游开发研究

本文根据长白山自然保护区的自然特点和开发优势,提出了开展科考旅游的设想,详细阐述了本区发展科考旅游的科学内涵,线路选择,标牌设计,导游培训与指南编制和环境管理.