Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape

Summary.  A general class of statistical models for a univariate response variable is presented which we call the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS). The model assumes independent observations of the response variable y given the parameters, the explanatory variables and the values of the random effects. The distribution for the response variable in the GAMLSS can be selected from a very general family of distributions including highly skew or kurtotic continuous and discrete distributions. The systematic part of the model is expanded to allow modelling not only of the mean (or location) but also of the other parameters of the distribution of y , as parametric and/or additive nonparametric (smooth) functions of explanatory variables and/or random-effects terms. Maximum (penalized) likelihood estimation is used to fit the (non)parametric models. A Newton–Raphson or Fisher scoring algorithm is used to maximize the (penalized) likelihood. The additive terms in the model are fitted by using a backfitting algorithm. Censored data are easily incorporated into the framework. Five data sets from different fields of application are analysed to emphasize the generality of the GAMLSS class of models.     

加窗技术的改进证书吊销机制

分析了现有证书吊销机制在灵活性、可升级性和及时性中的缺陷,针对现有新型证书吊销机制,提出了一种结合加窗证书吊销和增量CRL机制的证书吊销机制。该机制结合传统CRL机制和在线证书状态机制的优点,既能满足不同的安全需求,又能有效减少资源开销,满足验证者的实时性证书验证请求。     

浅谈实行建设工程无标底招标利弊及建议

本文分析了无标底招标的特点和利弊,在肯定无标底招标的同时,建议不可盲目实行,提出加强法律、法规建设,规范建筑市场和参与各方的行为是解决问题的关键。     

Where do we stand? Recent AEA member views on professionalization

The professionalization of evaluation continues to be debated at numerous conferences in the U.S. and abroad. At this time, AEA member views on the potential benefits and negative side effects of professionalization are essential as the discussion evolves. This study provides recent views on major topics in professionalization, including potential benefits, negative side effects, processes, competencies, and procedures. Results from in-depth interviews and an online survey demonstrate that AEA members view potential benefits of professionalization to be stakeholder trust, evaluator reputation and identity, while concerns about a potential negative side effect known as the “narrowing effect” (i.e., some evaluators will be alienated based on their background, competencies, etc.) were expressed by participants. These recent findings can inform the ongoing discussion of professionalization, and suggest new directions for future research on evaluation.     

非物质文化遗产代表性传承人名录制度反思

“非遗”传承人名录制度是我国“非遗”保护的重要手段之一,它在“非遗”保护中发挥了巨大作用，但也存在着不同程度的问题。国家级传承人数量偏少且分布不平衡，传承人的年龄与性别结构也不合理。传承人认定制度的不完善使一些民间艺人无法进入各级名录，传承人名录的分级制度导致传承人被人为阶层化,引发了民间艺人与传承人以及不同级别传承人之间的矛盾，造成一些集体项目无法正常开展活动，传承人的保护工作难以得到群众的有力支持。     

A model with long-term survivors: negative binomial Birnbaum-Saunders

Abstract

We propose a cure rate survival model by assuming that the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution and the time to the event of interest has the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Further, the new model includes as special cases some well-known cure rate models published recently. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation of the negative binomial Birnbaum-Saunders model with cure rate. Then, we derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. We illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model in the analysis of a real data set from the medical area.     

基本药物遴选方法的宏观经济效果比较

基本药物遴选的结果与百姓医保报销利益密切相关。我国医改新政关于基本药物遴选的方法学习西方国家，又有所发展。应用比较经济学原理，使用中国统计年鉴数据，测量了世界卫生组织的专家委员会法、中国现行的专家库两轮评审法、循证评价法、药物经济法等四种方法遴选所得基本药物方案的宏观卫生经济数据，得出在医疗卫生体制改革的社会医学领域可以借鉴自然科学统筹优化的组合方法，以获得综合更优的社会期望。     

试析哈萨克族学生汉语否定结构的习得顺序?

在分析汉语否定结构的有关特点及回顾第二语言学习者学习汉语否定结构的研究成果后,以哈萨克族学生学习汉语否定结构时可能遇到的困难为基础,选取不同类型的常用词类和结构设计了调查问卷。通过统计不同水平的学生掌握汉语否定结构的准确度,解释了他们对这一结构的习得顺序。文章认为,哈萨克族学生对汉语否定结构的习得顺序,不但与否定结构的复杂程度有关,而且也与哈萨克语和汉语否定结构上的差异有关。     

负面清单制度的国际经验及其对上海自贸区的启示

负面清单作为上海自贸区改革一大亮点,体现了我国开始着手建立高标准的投资规则。国外的负面清单制度已发展得较为成熟,无论是多边协定NAFTA,或是各双边协定,其负面清单模式都可为上海自贸区的建设提供经验和启示。在上海自贸区负面清单模式推行中,应对重点行业实施重点保护,将负面清单制度化,使经济开放与经济安全相平衡,使宏观经济管理与微观经济自由相平衡,使立法与司法制度相结合。     

论法院网络负面舆论较多的原因与应对

在全国性舆论事件越来越多的新媒体时代,社会对司法公正的关注度越来越高。特别是近两年,大量的网络负面舆论影响到了法院的独立审判。为引导与应对网络负面舆论,应从司法公正关注度、网民围观评论、民间舆论领袖、媒体报道商业化及外媒关注、法院信息公开不到位与舆论引导能力欠缺5个方面,结合实务案例分析找出相应的引导与应对措施。