Controlling the illusion of control: a grounded theory of sports betting advertising in the UK

Sports betting advertising has arguably permeated contemporary sport consumption in many countries. Advertisements build narratives that represent situations and characters that normalize betting behaviour and raise public concerns regarding their detrimental effect on vulnerable groups. Adopting a grounded theory approach, the present study examined a British sample of sports betting advertisements (N = 102) from 2014 to 2016. The analysis revealed that individual themes aligned in a single core narrative, constructing a dual persuasive strategy of sports betting advertising: (i) to reduce the perceived risk involved in betting (with themes such as betting with friends, free money offers, humour, or the use of celebrities) while (ii) enhancing the perceived control of bettors (including themes of masculinity and sport knowledge). In addition, new technological features of sports betting platforms (e.g. live in-play betting) were used by advertisers to build narratives in which the ability to predict a sports outcome was overlapped by the ability of bettors to use such platforms, equalizing the ease of betting with the ease of winning. Based on the data analysed, it was concluded that the construction of a magnified idea of control in sports betting advertising is a cause for concern that requires close regulatory scrutiny.     

Can Demographic Variables Predict Lottery and Pari-mutuel Losses? An Empirical Investigation

Using data from the 2004 and 2005 Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CES) comprising of 15,000 respondents, this study examines two research questions. The first of these considers the demographic differences between households whose members lose money playing the lottery and/or engaging in pari-mutuel betting and those whose members do not lose money participating in such activities. The second assesses demographic differences among households whose members lose money playing the lottery and/or engaging in pari-mutuel betting. It was found that respondents living in money-losing households are slightly older, better off financially, more likely to be married or divorced, more likely to live in a state with at least one legal casino and more likely to live in the Northeast than respondents living in non-money-losing households. Among those living in money-losing households, the least wealthy and African American respondents are more likely to lose a higher proportion of their respective incomes purchasing lottery tickets and engaging in pari-mutuel betting than wealthier respondents and whites.     

A note on the decidability of de Finetti's coherence

To check the de Finetti coherence of a putative probability assigned to a classA of events, we must know the possible combinations of truth values (constituents) of any finite class of events inA. Even for a very simple, finite,A this can be impossible. In this case the notion of DF coherence cannot be applied to some or all the putative probabilities on this class of events.     

Consumption benefits and gambling: Evidence from the NCAA basketball betting market

The utility of gambling model posits that consumption benefits lead rational agents to gamble when faced with negative expected financial returns. We analyze the determinants of bet volume and dollars bet on NCAA basketball games from three on-line sports books to test the predictions of this model. Betting action depends on television coverage, team quality, and the expected closeness of the contest. Our results support the notion that consumption benefits, not financial gain, motivate gambling. Preferences of bettors appear similar to those of sports fans, suggesting that models of gamblers as wealth-maximizing investors may not explain observed betting behavior.     

How Do Gamblers End Gambling: Longitudinal Analysis of Internet Gambling Behaviors Prior to Account Closure Due to Gambling Related Problems

Objective: To examine behavioral patterns of actual Internet gamblers who experienced gambling-related problems and voluntarily closed their accounts. Design: A nested case–control design was used to compare gamblers who closed their accounts because of gambling problems to those who maintained open accounts. Setting: Actual play patterns of in vivo Internet gamblers who subscribed to an Internet gambling site. Participants: 226 gamblers who closed accounts due to gambling problems were selected from a cohort of 47,603 Internet gamblers who subscribed to an Internet gambling site during February 2005; 226 matched-case controls were selected from the group of gamblers who did not close their accounts. Daily aggregates of behavioral data were collected during an 18-month study period. Main outcome measures: Main outcomes of interest were daily aggregates of stake, odds, and net loss, which were standardized by the daily aggregate number of bets. We also examined the number of bets to measure trajectory of gambling frequency. Results: Account closers due to gambling problems experienced increasing monetary loss as the time to closure approached; they also increased their stake per bet. Yet they did not chase longer odds; their choices of wagers were more probabilistically conservative (i.e., short odds) compared with the controls. The changes of monetary involvement and risk preference occurred concurrently during the last few days prior to voluntary closing. Conclusions: Our finding of an involvement-seeking yet risk-averse tendency among self-identified problem gamblers challenges the notion that problem gamblers seek “long odds” during “chasing.”     

How are major gambling brands using Twitter?

ABSTRACT

This paper is the first to compare how major gambling brands are using the popular social media platform Twitter, looking at how gambling brands vary in the frequency of their messages, the content of their tweets and engagement with their Twitter activity. 63,913 tweets were collected from seven well-known British gambling brands (Bet365, Betfair, Betfred, Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, William Hill) and their associated Twitter accounts (Total Number of Accounts = 22) via the Twitter Application Program Interface (API) on the 1 August 2018. Companies varied in their approach to Twitter, some posting from a single account whereas others segmented their tweets by topic or purpose. Frequency analysis of tweets showed that on average major gambling brands tweeted anywhere between 89 and 202 tweets a day. Sentiment analysis of tweets showed a positivity bias with the language in tweets being associated with positive emotions like anticipation, trust and joy. Paddy Power, Bet365 and Coral produced the content that received the highest number of likes or shares from other twitter users. This study highlights the extent to which companies are using Twitter; followers could potentially be receiving hundreds of messages per day.     

National television coverage and the behavioural bias of bettors: the American college football totals market

The market for totals, over/under bets, is examined for American college football. The sample is separated into nationally televised games on major networks, those games televised regionally or on smaller networks, and games not televised. A slight non-significant bias toward the over is observed for the sample as a whole. The bias is only statistically significant for nationally televised games on major networks. This bias to bet the over is likely due to a preference for scoring in games that bettors can watch on television. Explanations for this bias and the rejection of the efficient markets hypothesis found in this market are discussed from the point of view of the traditional sportsbook model and from the sportsbook model proposed by Levitt [Levitt, S.D. (2004). The Economic Journal, 114, 223–246]. These results demonstrate how bettor preferences can influence markets, and offer a possible avenue of research to those seeking to understand the satisfaction sought by gamblers.     

Algorithms for optimal allocation of bets on many simultaneous events

Summary.  The problem of optimizing a number of simultaneous bets is considered, using primarily log-utility. Stochastic gradient-based algorithms for solving this problem are developed and compared with the simplex method. The solutions may be regarded as a generalization of 'Kelly staking' to the case of many simultaneous bets. Properties of the solutions are examined in two example cases using real odds from sports bookmakers. The algorithms that are developed also have wide applicability beyond sports betting and may be extended to general portfolio optimization problems, with any reasonable utility function.     

The Favorite-Longshot Bias in Sequential Parimutuel Betting with Non-Expected Utility Players

This paper analyzes a model of sequential parimutuel betting described as a two-horse race with a finite number of noise bettors and a finite number of strategic and symmetrically informed bettors. For generic objective probabilities that the favorite wins the race, a unique subgame perfect equilibrium is characterized. Additionally, two explanations for the favorite–longshot bias—according to which favorites win more often than the market's estimate of their winning chances imply—are offered. It is shown that this robust anomalous empirical regularity might be due to the presence of transaction costs and/or to strategic bettors' subjective attitude to probabilities.