互联网统计与广义统计学

论文论述了互联网统计与广义统计学的基本学说和时代要求,提出了以互联网智能化为目标的统计设计及模型开发的全面量化新统计时代的丰富内容,研究了统计工作实践向互联网统计转变、互联网统计和广义统计学对统计工作和统计学科发展的关键作用、互联网统计和广义统计学的理论方法发展,以及政府统计改革的科学性问题和统计挑战人工智能的重要作用等,这些研究对于深刻认识统计实践发展和统计学科建设具有重要的意义。     

The challenge of quantifying national well-being: lessons from the Measures of Australia's Progress initiative

ABSTRACT

In recent decades, the use of gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy for national well-being has been criticised on the grounds it excludes important social and ecological considerations. Several alternatives have been proposed that promise to generate more comprehensive and balanced quantitative measures of well-being, but all of these alternative indicators remain contested and controversial. This paper critically reviews Australia's contribution to this effort: the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS's) Measures of Australia's Progress initiative. Unlike many other alternatives to GDP, the Australian initiative does not settle on one measure but uses expert-mediated public consultation to establish a ‘dashboard’ of indicators. In so doing, this model makes explicit the serious challenges confronting efforts to coherently define and measure progress in late modernity. In its attempt to integrate diverse views on national progress, the ABS has created an ambiguous tool that is not being taken up in public and political discourse.     

论我国刑法中犯罪定量的合理性及其模式

犯罪定量是中外刑法研究的共性模式。在我国刑法中质量互变规律是犯罪定量因素存在的认识论前提;刑法的谦抑性是犯罪定量的价值基础;＂二元的制裁模式＂是犯罪定量的现实政治基础;重刑主义传统影响下的法不责众的法文化心理是犯罪定量的现实文化基础。一些学者提出我国的犯罪定量模式是＂立法定性＋立法定量＂的看法,并没有较好地反映我国犯罪定量的真实场景。＂立法定性与定量＋司法定量＂才是我国犯罪定量的真实模式,这种立法定量与司法定量的混合模式更具有中国语境中制度上的契合性和实践上的适应性。     

数量化Ⅱ类弓形效应修正方法及应用

对应分析在对定性数据进行数量化处理过程中出现了“弓形效应”，关于对应分析的“弓形效应”的修正方法已经有了丰富的研究成果，避免了可能错误的分析结果，对理论界和应用领域都有重要意义。数量化Ⅱ类是关于定性数据的一种判别分析方法，在国内外已被广泛应用。本文通过大量模拟数据研究发现，数量化Ⅱ类在对定性数据进行数量化过程中出现了“弓形效应”，降低了正判别率，同时不能正确再现原始数据信息，得出与原始数据信息不符的错误分析结果，为修正“弓形效应”，提出了二阶段判别分析法，并从正判别率和对原始数据再现程度两个方面对数量化Ⅱ类与二阶段判别分析法进行了比较，同时将二阶段判别分析法运用到个人信用评级中，发现二阶段判别分析法的判别性能优于数量化Ⅱ类。     

数字化、广义统计与数族协同

互联网技术革命已经收敛到数据资源、数据生产要素、数据资产,正在通过新科学、新技术、新产业推动人类社会的巨大进步。本文针对互联网技术革命作用的基本架构做出系统研究,提出数字化、全面量化、广义统计、数族协同一系列关键领域的分析研究,追求解析互联网技术革命的重大发展趋势、重要途径和主要科学手段,以及走向智能化的设施支撑和社会生态系统平台的优化及演化作用,特别阐述统计学科在互联网技术革命中基础地位和巨大发展空间,为统计实践工作和战略定位提供理论依据。     

Analysing the effect of public health campaigns on reducing excess weight: a modelling approach for the Spanish Autonomous Region of the Community of Valencia

Excess weight is fast becoming a serious health concern in the developed and developing world. The concern of the public health sector has lead to the development of public health campaigns, focusing on two-fold goals: to inform the public as to the health risks inherent in being overweight, and the benefits of a change in nutritional behaviour. Recent studies indicate that the effects of the average public health campaign on the target community is around 5%. In this study we aim to quantify the effect of different public health campaigns on lifestyle behaviour in the target populations in order to bring about weightloss in a significant number of people over the next few years.This study is based on recent works that consider excess weight as a consequence of the transmission of unhealthy lifestyles from one individual to another. Following this point of view, first a mathematical model is presented. Then, policies based on public health campaigns addressed to stop people gaining weight (prevention; this type of policy acts on individuals in order to maintain their weight and to stop an increase in weight) and, policies addressed to overweight individuals to reduce their weight (treatment; these campaigns act on overweight and/or obese individuals in order to reduce their weight) are simulated in order to evaluate their effectiveness. The study concludes that combination of preventive plus treatment campaigns are more effective than considering them separately.     

Les représentations professionnelles en question. Le cas des intermédiaires dans les fusions-acquisitions

One sector of finance, relatively unfamiliar to the public, has nevertheless been growing fast for the last 30 years. This sector, known as M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions), specialises in the sale or purchase of companies. The middlemen who carry out the transactions are not the owners of the companies they buy or sell. They perform a set of socially divided and organised tasks and possess specific expertise. This article seeks to analyse these financial middlemen as workers, and in particular to understand their professional representation of the companies that they help to buy or sell. We show that the people working in this sector share a commodified, quantitative and abstract representation of the companies bought and sold. Through an analysis of activity, professional rhetoric, socialisation processes and career dynamics, the article shows how the homogeneity of this representation is constructed and maintained.     

维生素E软胶囊含量测定的新方法

建立毛细管气相色谱法测定维生素E软胶囊中维生素E含量的新方法。采用DB-1大口径毛细管柱,以十六酸十六醇酯为内标进行定量和以醋酸乙酯为溶剂。维生素E的线性范围为0.5￣2.5mg·mL-1(r=0.9995),精密度为0.82%(n=6),回收率为99.6%。本法简单,准确,重现性好。