Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

The value of being precise

This study investigates how individuals assess imprecise information. We focus on two essential dimensions of decision under uncertainty, outcomes and probabilities, and their respective precision. We believe the precision of information is highly relevant in the investment setting, as reflected in the well-known “home (familiarity) bias”, and the outcome and probability dimensions, separately or jointly, may affect investors’ knowledge of uncertainty and perceived risk of the investment options, and subsequently affect investors’ choices. To test this conjecture, we conducted three experiments. Our results show that 1) participants demonstrate a pattern of preference for precision and aversion of extreme vagueness and associate vagueness with higher perceived risk and lower investment (experiments one and two); 2) participants prefer vague outcome information to vague probability information (experiment two); 3) familiarity indeed positively affects the precision of estimated values, but this association is stronger for the outcome dimension than for probabilities (experiment three). Our results confirm that precision in information, especially in the outcome dimension has an impact on investors’ resource allocation choices.     

林庚白对宋诗派理论的反思与改造及其古典诗歌创作观

林庚白是南社的重要作家之一,研究近代文学的学人往往简单地视林庚白为宋诗派成员,但事实上宋诗不能涵盖林氏一生诗歌的情感内容和艺术风貌。从早年对同光体的追慕到后来对宋诗派的反叛和超越,林庚白对同光体宋诗派理论的内省与改造体现在藉诗写史的自觉性,情绪与情感的现代性以及以社会主义者之身世与怀抱而为诗三个方面,为传统诗词创作注入了新的精神　　气质和思想内涵。其五四以后的诗作也显示了旧体形式的诗歌在主动顺应历史潮流,渗入时代精神的条件下的内在生命力和创作实绩,不应为近现代文学研究所忽视。     

浅析电子商务中的信息安全风险评估

本文结合电子商务自身特点,从对信息资产风险对象的确定、风险评估方法选择、评估的具体指标评价和结果的分析后,确定信息资产的风险控制策略。同时从投入与收益的比较选择中,简单分析控制措施选择与成本预算方面的关系。     

中国船级社在大连建设东北亚国际航运中心中的作用及自身发展

在大连建设东北亚国际航运中心的过程中 ,中国船级社应在大连的航运业、修造船业、港口基础设施建设、现代物流中心建设、软环境建设、腹地经济发展等方面发挥积极作用 ,同时应通过扩大新建船舶检验市场份额、大力发展海洋工程及与其相关的检验业务、积极开拓陆上产业等措施加快自身的发展。     

论和谐社会的道德价值导向

道德价值取向的多元化是当代社会的重要特征,构建和谐社会必须坚持正确的道德价值导向,在多元道德价值取向之间实现合理整合,追求道德价值的和谐一致。社会主义荣辱观是构建和谐社会的基本道德规范,也是构建和谐社会的价值取向,必须不断地建设和谐的道德价值观,促进社会的和谐发展。     

Chemical risk communication through the Internet in Spain

In this work, some corporate websites of the chemical industry of Tarragona (Spain) are studied, analysing how the chemical trade associations and companies present information and/or encourage dialogue with the community on issues relating to the chemical risk and their environmental, health and safety (EHS) performance. The results suggest that the chemical industry in Tarragona uses the corporate websites mainly to disseminate information about its EHS commitments and performance, but they do not encourage dialogue with the community through the Internet.     

皇家亚洲文会北中国支会述论

皇家亚洲文会北中国支会是近代外侨在上海建立的一个重要文化机构 ,95年里 ,它对中国的自然和社会进行了广泛调查与深入研究 ,以其独有的模式在中西文化交流过程中做出了突出贡献。     

A modified random-effect procedure for combining risk difference in sets of 2×2 tables from clinical trials

Summary Meta-analyses of sets of clinical trials often combine risk differences from several 2×2 tables according to a random-effects model. The DerSimonian-Laird random-effects procedure, widely used for estimating the populaton mean risk difference, weights the risk difference from each primary study inversely proportional to an estimate of its variance (the sum of the between-study variance and the conditional within-study variance). Because those weights are not independent of the risk differences, however, the procedure sometimes exhibits bias and unnatural behavior. The present paper proposes a modified weighting scheme that uses the unconditional within-study variance to avoid this source of bias. The modified procedure has variance closer to that available from weighting by ideal weights when such weights are known. We studied the modified procedure in extensive simulation experiments using situations whose parameters resemble those of actual studies in medical research. For comparison we also included two unbiased procedures, the unweighted mean and a sample-size-weighted mean; their relative variability depends on the extent of heterogeneity among the primary studies. An example illustrates the application of the procedures to actual data and the differences among the results. This research was supported by Grant HS 05936 from the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research to Harvard University.     

和谐社会伦理:对革命道德教化理念的解构与超越——革命道德教化的现代性道德价值理念审理

中国现代性道德教化是一项未竟的事业。革命道德教化理念是宝贵的精神财富,但是,以现代性道德价值理念来分析,革命道德是一种“信念伦理”,革命道德教化作为“非常时期”的道德教化活动,不能实现对启蒙道德教化的超越,与之形成了现代性道德教化的某种断裂。透析革命道德教化的现代性断裂现象,对当代道德教化有着重要启示。“和谐社会”伦理是和谐社会的价值基础,是当代道德教化的核心理念,是对革命道德教化理念的超越。