六方会谈：决策树模型视角下的“猎鹿困境”

朝核问题是国际核不扩散体系中最令人关切的核心问题之一。朝核问题的症结在于怎样解读和执行朝鲜半岛无核化,在于美国的军事存在及敌视政策与朝鲜安全诉求的负相关性,在于现存国际法致使捍卫国家安全的正当性和维护国际安全的法理性二者相悖,而消弭这一悖论的纳什均衡点难以寻求。作者以决策树模型和猎鹿博弈理论,论证了解决朝核问题的机制——六方会谈的实质是购买朝鲜弃核。本文认为,该机制本身孕育了致使其难以成功的困境,并进而得出朝鲜难以在现存国际体系下和平弃核,以朝鲜半岛中立化机制内化掉朝核问题未尝不是最佳出路。     

Social capital and equilibrium selection in Stag Hunt games

Surveys of trusting attitudes are found to correlate with growth and development outcomes. The question of why trust attitudes correlate with economic growth remains open however. I argue that trust surveys capture facets of social capital not previously investigated, namely, coordination. Hence a complete investigation of the relationship between trust attitudes in growth must encompass their predictive power in a coordination game. This study shows that affirmative responses to surveys of trust attitudes correlate with and predict efficiency-supporting behavior in a Stag Hunt game.     

《亚细亚狂人》的跨国族同理心

无名氏在1946年着手撰写《无名书》,小说提出的"星球哲学"与"地球农场"表现出鲜明的世界主义精神。世界主义精神在无名氏的《亚细亚狂人》里其实已经萌芽,它以跨国族同理心的形式展现在《露西亚之恋》和《狩》的章节之中。《亚细亚狂人》见证了无名氏作品中世界主义精神渐趋成熟的过程,是研究解读《无名书》的重要参考。     

Optimal Experimental Design Strategies for Detecting Hormesis

Hormesis is a widely observed phenomenon in many branches of life sciences, ranging from toxicology studies to agronomy, with obvious public health and risk assessment implications. We address optimal experimental design strategies for determining the presence of hormesis in a controlled environment using the recently proposed Hunt‐Bowman model. We propose alternative models that have an implicit hormetic threshold, discuss their advantages over current models, and construct and study properties of optimal designs for (i) estimating model parameters, (ii) estimating the threshold dose, and (iii) testing for the presence of hormesis. We also determine maximin optimal designs that maximize the minimum of the design efficiencies when we have multiple design criteria or there is model uncertainty where we have a few plausible models of interest. We apply these optimal design strategies to a teratology study and show that the proposed designs outperform the implemented design by a wide margin for many situations.