An individual measure of relative survival

Summary.  Relative survival techniques are used to compare survival experience in a study cohort with that expected if background population rates apply. The techniques are especially useful when cause-specific death information is not accurate or not available as they provide a measure of excess mortality in a group of patients with a certain disease. Whereas these methods are based on group comparisons, we present here a transformation approach which instead gives for each individual an outcome measure relative to the appropriate background population. The new outcome measure is easily interpreted and can be analysed by using standard survival analysis techniques. It provides additional information on relative survival and gives new options in regression analysis. For example, one can estimate the proportion of patients who survived longer than a given percentile of the respective general population or compare survival experience of individuals while accounting for the population differences. The regression models for the new outcome measure are different from existing models, thus providing new possibilities in analysing relative survival data. One distinctive feature of our approach is that we adjust for expected survival before modelling. The paper is motivated by a study into the survival of patients after acute myocardial infarction.     

中国经济增长模式转型：供给结构视角分析

本文从供给结构角度分析了自1978年以来中国经济增长模式转型的特征，并针对存在的问题提出了相应的解决对策，旨在寻求经济增长模式转型的有效路径。     

阿拉伯国家转型及其走势

埃及军方推翻穆兄会政权,局势仍难以稳定;叙利亚化武危机化解,但政治解决步履艰难;巴、以重启和谈,取得突破仍困难重重;美、伊关系松动,伊核谈判取得阶段性成果;美国在中东地区的主导能力下降;阿拉伯国家转型之路漫长而艰难;伊斯兰势力崛起受挫。     

2012年宏观调控要处理好四大关系

随着经济增长的不确定性和风险进一步增加,2012年,中国继续保持经济持续平稳增长的关键,是在宏观调控上要处理好国际经济与国内经济的关系,“松银根”与“抑通胀”的关系,“抑通胀”、“惠民生”与“控成本”的关系,“稳增长”与“调结构”的关系。要处理好上述四大关系问题,关键是要坚持科学发展观,更加深入地推进转变经济发展方式。其中非常关键的举措,就是要在“稳增长”的前提下,适度调低经济增长率指标,加大结构调整的力度。     

城郊失地农民的社会角色转换

随着城市化进程的推进,失地农民数量激增。如何使这一群体实现社会角色的转变,变成真正意义上的城市居民,是当前城市化进程中一个亟待解决的重大问题。目前城郊农民角色转换中面临内在动力不足等现实困境,需要城郊失地农民通过自身的努力,增强生存和发展能力;更需要政府积极作为,加快制度创新,完善公共政策,为城郊失地农民实现角色转换提供制度保障。     

20世纪英国离婚法变迁及其发展趋势探析

20世纪后半期以来人类社会的婚姻制度和家庭模式遭遇了前所未有的危机,全球掀起离婚浪潮,在欧洲以英国最为典型。20世纪英国离婚法实现了从有限离婚主义到离婚自由主义的转变。然而日益增长的离婚率,离婚后时代单亲家庭队伍的不断壮大,已经成为严重困扰英国社会健康发展的社会问题。面对离婚自由主义带来的汹涌的离婚风潮,英国立法机关也在不断调整和完善离婚法为重建婚姻和家庭做出新的努力。站在婚姻家庭法的视角,对一个世纪以来的英国离婚法变革进行梳理,从中深层剖析离婚法改革对婚姻制度带来的冲击及其发展趋势,以期为我国婚姻和离婚现状的研究提供有益借鉴。     

“转形问题”：一个百年难题的解读

“价值转形”问题的讨论多沿用鲍尔特凯维兹思维路径,构建“价值转形方程组”,并检验其是否有解。但一直没有得到令人信服的结论,且仅仅是在说明“转形”的可能性,并不能为劳动价值论提供有力的证据。本文认为解决“价值转形”问题应考虑社会需求约束下的要素转移统计规律,并推断构建各部门生产价格和价值间的离差之和并证明其收敛于零,这是证明命题成立必然性的可行路径。     

Informal Food Production in the Enlarged European Union

How widespread is the production of food in old and new member states of the European Union and what is the social meaning or logic of such activities? We show that growing food is (a) more widespread in former communist countries than in traditional market economies and (b) is predominantly a hobby or recreational activity in affluent countries, but a coping strategy in reaction to experienced difficulties in making ends meet in poorer nations, and especially so in the former communist countries.     

从招赘婚姻看城郊农民市民化:以萧山 R村为例

近几年来,浙江城郊农村撤村建居过程中招赘婚姻比例上升。本文阐释这类现象背后的行动逻辑,即招赘婚姻的正功能,以及可能给农民市民化带来的负面效应,由此呈现农民市民化的复杂性。     

Conflicts in urban fringe in the transformation era: An examination of performance of the metropolitan growth management in Beijing

The performances of urban growth management are often criticized because their original objectives are frequently inconsistent with local development facts. Underlying the many reasons for this are the political and institutional contexts that influence policy-making and development activities. The urban fringe, a zone is managed to against urban sprawl in many countries, represents the conflicts between urban management system and local development resulting from political transformation. This study examines the case of decentralised-concentration strategy, one of the most important metropolitan growth management in Beijing since the 1990s, and sheds some lights on the performance of the growth management in the transformation context. The results suggest that the aims of municipal growth management to concentrate developments in urban fringe have partly been achieved through actual local developments; however, some unexpected and illegal local developments outside the planned areas are counterproductive from the perspective of municipal growth management. The performance of the present growth management is being challenged by new trends towards political decentralisation and locally fiscal responsibilities. In the interest of future policymaking, the dominant central planning system in Beijing should take these decentralisation trends into growth management account, compared with the great progress in decentralisation in economy system. The urban policy needs to shift from the dictatorial manner and put more efforts into creating a harmonious relationship between municipal growth management and actual local demands on development.