Developing a Broadly Applicable Measure of Risk Perception

Decades of research identify risk perception as a largely intuitive and affective construct, in contrast to the more deliberative assessments of probability and consequences that form the foundation of risk assessment. However, a review of the literature reveals that many of the risk perception measures employed in survey research with human subjects are either generic in nature, not capturing any particular affective, probabilistic, or consequential dimension of risk; or focused solely on judgments of probability. The goal of this research was to assess a multidimensional measure of risk perception across multiple hazards to identify a measure that will be broadly useful for assessing perceived risk moving forward. Our results support the idea of risk perception being multidimensional, but largely a function of individual affective reactions to the hazard. We also find that our measure of risk perception holds across multiple types of hazards, ranging from those that are behavioral in nature (e.g., health and safety behaviors), to those that are technological (e.g., pollution), or natural (e.g., extreme weather). We suggest that a general, unidimensional measure of risk may accurately capture one's perception of the severity of the consequences, and the discrete emotions that are felt in response to those potential consequences. However, such a measure is not likely to capture the perceived probability of experiencing the outcomes, nor will it be as useful at understanding one's motivation to take mitigation action.     

1955年埃苏武器交易内幕

第二次世界大战后美英一方面为了对抗苏联,把中东拉进全球冷战范围,另一方面又企图通过1950年美英法三国宣言控制对中东的武器供应,进而达到调整、保持该地区政治和军事均势之目的。埃及总统纳赛尔为了抵抗以色列的袭击,在请求美英给埃及提供武器不成的情况下,毅然转向苏联,通过捷克同苏联签订了购买武器的条约。苏埃武器交易使苏联势力进入中东,从而给中东局势带来了深远的影响。     

Environmental and Behavioral Circumstances and Consequences of Falls in a Senior Living Development

This article investigated the role of environmental and behavioral factors surrounding fall incidents in a senior living community. Using a mixed-methods approach, this research included both a retrospective analysis of fall reports and resident interviews. The quantitative analysis showed falls in the bedroom and bathroom were more likely to happen between 12 am and 8 am. Falls in the bathroom were more likely to result in severe injuries compared to falls in other rooms. The qualitative analysis identified three types of fall-related activity (transfer, ambulation, standing) and five behavioral factors surrounding fall incidents (transferring, slipping, misjudged behavior, tripping, health issue).     

Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States

Pandemic influenza represents a serious threat not only to the population of the United States, but also to its economy. In this study, we analyze the total economic consequences of potential influenza outbreaks in the United States for four cases based on the distinctions between disease severity and the presence/absence of vaccinations. The analysis is based on data and parameters on influenza obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and the general literature. A state‐of‐the‐art economic impact modeling approach, computable general equilibrium, is applied to analyze a wide range of potential impacts stemming from the outbreaks. This study examines the economic impacts from changes in medical expenditures and workforce participation, and also takes into consideration different types of avoidance behavior and resilience actions not previously fully studied. Our results indicate that, in the absence of avoidance and resilience effects, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in a loss in U.S. GDP of $25.4 billion, but that vaccination could reduce the losses to $19.9 billion. When behavioral and resilience factors are taken into account, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in GDP losses of $45.3 billion without vaccination and $34.4 billion with vaccination. These results indicate the importance of including a broader set of causal factors to achieve more accurate estimates of the total economic impacts of not just pandemic influenza but biothreats in general. The results also highlight a number of actionable items that government policymakers and public health officials can use to help reduce potential economic losses from the outbreaks.     

Romantic relationships,college student alcohol use,and negative consequences of drinking

This study examined whether being in a romantic relationship is associated with undergraduates’ alcohol use and negative consequences of drinking. Alcohol use was operationalized to include amount and frequency of drinking, binge drinking, and drunkenness. Negative consequences included: having a hangover, missing a class, getting behind in school work, doing something that was later regretted, forgetting where the student was or what they did, having unplanned sex, and getting hurt or injured. Data came from an online survey distributed to Midwestern undergraduate students (N = 572), with analyses conducted separately for men and women. Results indicated that being in a committed relationship generally served as a protective factor against drunkenness, but did not reduce frequency of drinking or binge drinking. Whereas romantically committed men were only less likely to report doing something that was later regretted, women in romantic relationships were less likely to experience all negative consequences of drinking considered here.     

消费：节制与激励及其社会后果

随着经济的发展,人们的消费理念也在不断重塑。为推动可持续发展,需要正确引导人类的消费欲望。通过对我国消费由节制到激励、再到适度节制的转变历程与社会环境的阐述,分析了节制消费与刺激消费的社会影响,指出节制消费有助于保持经济稳定、增加储蓄、平衡财政收支,但对生产力、经济发展、消费品质与劳动力素质提升具有消极影响;而刺激消费有助于促进经济增长与生产力提升,但易引发消费主义,导致过度消费与浪费。基于此,提出构建适度消费、绿色消费与健康消费的消费理念。     

Workplace aggression against health care workers,law enforcement officials,and bus drivers: Differences in prevalence,perceptions, and psychological consequences

Investigations into workplace aggression (WPA) remain largely occupation specific, with few studies using a comparative approach. The aim of the present study was to compare the health care, law enforcement, and public transportation sectors with regards to the prevalence of different types of WPA, the perceptions of workers toward WPA, and the psychological consequences of such acts. A cross-sectional survey was completed by 1,774 workers in Canada. Multinomial regressions were utilized to address the objectives. Findings revealed that verbal abuse victimization was particularly common in bus drivers, witnessing death threats was most frequent among law enforcement officials, and witnessing all types of WPA was most common among health care workers. Although bus drivers did not normalize WPA, they feared complaining about violence to their employer and thought it useless to talk it about unless wounds were visible. Fear of complaining about violence to colleagues was prevalent in health care and law enforcement, both sectors in which WPA was normalized. Finally, flashbacks and irritability following WPA were most likely to affect bus drivers whereas health care workers experienced hypervigilance to a greater extent. Strategies to tailor primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention according to these distinctions are suggested to offer a better-informed response to WPA.     

Negotiated identities: Male migration and left-behind wives in India

This paper examines the impact of husbands’ migration on the lives of women left behind. Using data from the India Human Development Survey 2005, we focus on two dimensions of women’s lives: women’s autonomy and control over their lives; and women’s labour force participation. Results suggest that household structure forms the key mediating factor through which husbands’ absence affects women. Women not residing in extended families are faced with both higher levels of responsibilities and greater autonomy, while women who live in extended households do not experience these demands or benefits.     

人口老龄化的经济社会后果——基于多层面与多维度视角的分析

人口老龄化的加剧对中国社会形成了巨大冲击。文章利用宏微观数据,系统梳理了人口老龄化对中国经济社会与文化、社区治理和家庭福祉的影响。研究发现:随着持续近40年的人口红利逐渐消失,中国宏观经济增长、社会保障体系、文化形态和公共政策都发生了诸多改变;社区服务供给和社区治理的复杂性也日渐提高;家庭养老资源日益萎缩,护理员面临总量短缺和结构失衡,照护活动给照料者的身心健康带来负向溢出效应。尽管人口老龄化给社会带来了诸多改变,但应乐观、科学辨证地审视这一现象。积极应对人口老龄化,应从推动产业转型升级、完善为老服务体制机制、提升养老服务质量等方面入手,真正让老年人共享社会经济发展的成果。     

The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets

U.S. airports and airliners are prime terrorist targets. Not only do the facilities and equipment represent high‐value assets, but the fear and dread that is spread by such attacks can have tremendous effects on the U.S. economy. This article presents the methodology, data, and estimates of the macroeconomic impacts stemming from behavioral responses to a simulated terrorist attack on a U.S. airport and on a domestic airliner. The analysis is based on risk‐perception surveys of these two scenarios. The responses relate to reduced demand for airline travel, shifts to other modes, spending on nontravel items, and savings of potential travel expenditures by U.S. resident passengers considering flying domestic routes. We translate these responses to individual spending categories and feed these direct impact results into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy to ascertain the indirect and total impacts on both the airline industry and the economy as a whole. Overall, the estimated impacts on GDP of both types of attacks exceed $10B. We find that the behavioral economic impacts are almost an order of magnitude higher than the ordinary business interruption impacts for the airliner attack and nearly two orders of magnitude higher for the airport attack. The results are robust to sensitivity tests on the travel behavior of U.S. residents in response to terrorism.