Treatment Choice With Trial Data: Statistical Decision Theory Should Supplant Hypothesis Testing

Abstract

A central objective of empirical research on treatment response is to inform treatment choice. Unfortunately, researchers commonly use concepts of statistical inference whose foundations are distant from the problem of treatment choice. It has been particularly common to use hypothesis tests to compare treatments. Wald’s development of statistical decision theory provides a coherent frequentist framework for use of sample data on treatment response to make treatment decisions. A body of recent research applies statistical decision theory to characterize uniformly satisfactory treatment choices, in the sense of maximum loss relative to optimal decisions (also known as maximum regret). This article describes the basic ideas and findings, which provide an appealing practical alternative to use of hypothesis tests. For simplicity, the article focuses on medical treatment with evidence from classical randomized clinical trials. The ideas apply generally, encompassing use of observational data and treatment choice in nonmedical contexts.     

限量促销诱发的前瞻性情绪及其作用机制

摘要:为探讨限量促销诱发的前瞻性情绪及其对购买意愿的作用机制,根据促销决策及目标导向型决策理论,在将前瞻性情绪分为“希望、焦虑、预期欣喜和预期后悔”的基础上,结合限量方式、产品类型及限制数量3个因素,借助5个心理学实验进行检验.研究发现:1)生产型限量与销售型限量方式对前瞻性情绪及购买意愿的影响有显著差异,且生产型限量的影响更大;2)限量方式对前瞻性情绪及购买意愿的影响会受到产品类型的调节.炫耀品更适合使用生产型限量促销,非炫耀品更适合使用销售型限量促销;3)在炫耀品情境下,限量方式对前瞻性情绪及购买意愿的影响会受到限制数量的调节;4)在炫耀品情境下,一元线性回归结果显示,希望、焦虑、预期欣喜、预期后悔对购买意愿的影响都显著,但多元线性回归显示,希望的影响最大,预期后悔与预期欣喜紧随其后,而焦虑则不显著.以上研究结论不仅对企业提升限量促销效果有益,而且有助于深入理解前瞻性情绪的作用.     

损失厌恶、后悔厌恶与沉没成本效应的关联性分析

以往研究认为沉没成本效应的产生与损失厌恶和后悔厌恶相关,但对其相互关系的探讨较少考虑货币性沉没成本和非货币性沉没成本的不同影响.文章选取证券监管者和证券市场投资者作为被试对象,通过有情境因素的调查问卷对损失厌恶、后悔厌恶与沉没成本效应之间的关联性进行验证.实证结果发现,与证券市场投资者相比,证券监管者的损失厌恶倾向要显著更低,而二者的后悔厌恶和沉没成本效应则无显著差异;证券监管者的数据结果表明,后悔厌恶与沉没成本效应之间存在显著的相关性,而损失厌恶与沉没成本效应之间不存在显著的相关性;相比之下,证券市场投资者的数据结果则表明,损失厌恶与沉没成本之间存在显著的相关性,而后悔厌恶与沉没成本之间则不存在显著的相关性.     

女大学生在情绪后悔下择偶决策的信息加工方式

以42名20-26岁之间的某高校未婚女大学生为被试,采用诱发情绪后使用信息板进行择偶决策的方式探讨了她们在后悔情绪下择偶决策的信息加工方式。结果表明：（1）用影片和自由想象的方式能够诱发被试的后悔情绪;（2）无论情绪类型,时间限制和候选人数量均影响被试择偶决策的信息加工方式;（3）情绪类型即后悔情绪与中性情绪,对女大学生择偶决策的信息加工方式无显著影响。     

基于ART及多风险规避的交通网络均衡模型

随着对交通系统不确定性认识的深入,以绝对理性为基础的“期望效用理论”在风险环境下的路径选择分析中显示出局限性,而“预期后悔理论”则为之提供了新的分析思路.将预期后悔理论应用到风险环境下的路径选择分析中,将出行者一致风险规避的假设扩展到多风险规避,建立了基于后悔理论及多风险规避出行特征的交通网络随机用户均衡变分不等式模型,并给出了求解算法.通过算例分析发现,后悔心理对出行者的路径选择并不总是显著的.在非风险环境及极端风险环境中,后悔心理对出行者的路径选择影响是微弱的,但是当环境处于极端风险与非风险之间时,后悔心理对出行者路径选择有着较为显著的影响.     

不安抗辩与预期违约的体系构建

不安抗辩和预期违约分别是大陆法系和英美法系的法律制度,在保护守约方使其提前获得救济,防范合同成立后至履行期到来前出现的履约风险方面起到了重要作用。我国合同法中不但赋予当事人不安抗辩权,还建立了预期违约制度,对此学者们存在诸多争议。我国合同法以大陆法为基础,并吸收了国际立法在预期违约上的先进之处,设计出符合我国实际的不安抗辩和预期违约制度,二者之间的过渡衔接合理,构成了具有中国特色的体系。     

预期后悔、归因风格对购买决策中信息加工的影响

在以往研究的基础上,引入预期后悔情绪（高、低）和归因风格（积极归因风格、消极归因风格）变量,以购买汽车为决策任务,采用决策研究的信息板技术呈现实验任务,探讨了预期后悔情绪与归因风格对购买决策信息加工的影响。结果显示：（1）在信息加工时间和信息搜索深度上,预期后悔情绪与归因风格主效应以及交互作用显著,积极归因风格比消极归因风格的被试更容易受到预期后悔情绪的影响,表现为更长时间的信息加工和更深的信息搜索;（2）在信息搜索模式上,预期后悔情绪与归因风格的交互作用不显著,高预期后悔情绪的被试多倾向于基于属性的信息搜索模式。     

略谈崔莺莺的“哀而不恨”

人 ,自降生以来 ,就陷入“自我”的重重矛盾之中 ,不仅面临“本我”的约束 ,还要应对“超我”的压力。如何做到既能满足“本我”的生理本能的需求 ,又能符合“超我”的道德化意愿 ,使自我得以完善 ,这是人们毕生所寻求的。研究唐代著名小说《莺莺传》中崔莺莺的艺术形象 ,破译其“哀而不恨”的密码 ,对于我们揭示这一人生主题具有积极的意义。     

Inference Under Right Censoring in a Discrete Setup

In this article, we consider the right random censoring scheme in a discrete setup when the lifetime and censoring variables are independent and have geometric distributions with means 1/θ₁ and 1/θ₂, respectively. We first obtain the Maximum Likelihood and Method of Moment estimators of the unknown parameters. We also find the Bayes and Posterior Regret Gamma Minimax estimators of the parameters for the two cases when the prior distributions are dependent and independent, assuming a squared error loss function. We then discuss the Proportional Hazard model, and obtain Maximum Likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters and derive the Bayes estimators assuming squared error loss using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.     

A Parallel between Regret Theory and Outranking Methods for Multicriteria Decision Making Under Imprecise Information

Incorporation of the behavioral issues of the decision maker (DM) is among the aspects that each Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) method implicitly or explicitly takes into account. As postulated by regret theory, the feelings of regret and rejoice are among the behavioral issues associated with the entire decision making process. Within the context of MCDM, the DM may feel regret, when the chosen alternative is compared with another one having at least one better criterion value. PROMETHEE II is a widely known MCDM method that makes no explicit incorporation of regret attitude of the DM. In this paper, we elaborate on the applicability of regret theory to MCDM context. In particular, we investigate the findings of regret theory and explore the parallel between regret theory and PROMETHEE II method. Relying on the concepts of regret theory, we demonstrate how a decision that is made using a PROMETHEE II based outranking method conforms to the regret attitude of the DM.