Integrating Operational and Organizational Aspects in Interdependent Infrastructure Network Recovery

Managing risk in infrastructure systems implies dealing with interdependent physical networks and their relationships with the natural and societal contexts. Computational tools are often used to support operational decisions aimed at improving resilience, whereas economics‐related tools tend to be used to address broader societal and policy issues in infrastructure management. We propose an optimization‐based framework for infrastructure resilience analysis that incorporates organizational and socioeconomic aspects into operational problems, allowing to understand relationships between decisions at the policy level (e.g., regulation) and the technical level (e.g., optimal infrastructure restoration). We focus on three issues that arise when integrating such levels. First, optimal restoration strategies driven by financial and operational factors evolve differently compared to those driven by socioeconomic and humanitarian factors. Second, regulatory aspects have a significant impact on recovery dynamics (e.g., effective recovery is most challenging in societies with weak institutions and regulation, where individual interests may compromise societal well‐being). And third, the decision space (i.e., available actions) in postdisaster phases is strongly determined by predisaster decisions (e.g., resource allocation). The proposed optimization framework addresses these issues by using: (1) parametric analyses to test the influence of operational and socioeconomic factors on optimization outcomes, (2) regulatory constraints to model and assess the cost and benefit (for a variety of actors) of enforcing specific policy‐related conditions for the recovery process, and (3) sensitivity analyses to capture the effect of predisaster decisions on recovery. We illustrate our methodology with an example regarding the recovery of interdependent water, power, and gas networks in Shelby County, TN (USA), with exposure to natural hazards.     

Coalition for a Healthier Community: Lessons learned and implications for future work

The Coalition for a Healthier Community (CHC) initiative was implemented to improve the health and well-being of women and girls. Underpinning CHC is a gender-based focus that uses a network of community partners working collaboratively to generate relevant behavior change and improved health outcomes. Ten programs are trying to determine whether gender-focused system approaches are cost-effective ways to address health disparities in women and girls. Programs implemented through coalitions made up of academic institutions, public health departments, community-based organizations, and local, regional, and national organizations, are addressing health issues such as domestic violence, cardiovascular disease prevention, physical activity, and healthy eating. Although these programs are ongoing, they have made significant progress. Key factors contributing to their early success include a comprehensive needs assessment, robust coalitions, the diversity of populations targeted, programs based on findings of the needs assessments, evaluations taking into consideration the effect of gender, and strong academic–community partnerships. A noteworthy impact of these programs has been their ability to shape and impact public, social, and health policies at the state and local levels. However, there have been challenges associated with the implementation of such a complex program. Lessons learned are discussed in this paper.     

Blinded continuous monitoring in clinical trials with recurrent event endpoints

In studies with recurrent event endpoints, misspecified assumptions of event rates or dispersion can lead to underpowered trials or overexposure of patients. Specification of overdispersion is often a particular problem as it is usually not reported in clinical trial publications. Changing event rates over the years have been described for some diseases, adding to the uncertainty in planning. To mitigate the risks of inadequate sample sizes, internal pilot study designs have been proposed with a preference for blinded sample size reestimation procedures, as they generally do not affect the type I error rate and maintain trial integrity. Blinded sample size reestimation procedures are available for trials with recurrent events as endpoints. However, the variance in the reestimated sample size can be considerable in particular with early sample size reviews. Motivated by a randomized controlled trial in paediatric multiple sclerosis, a rare neurological condition in children, we apply the concept of blinded continuous monitoring of information, which is known to reduce the variance in the resulting sample size. Assuming negative binomial distributions for the counts of recurrent relapses, we derive information criteria and propose blinded continuous monitoring procedures. The operating characteristics of these are assessed in Monte Carlo trial simulations demonstrating favourable properties with regard to type I error rate, power, and stopping time, ie, sample size.     

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.     

为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息的刑法规制

最高人民法院、最高人民检察院《关于办理侵犯公民个人信息刑事案件适用法律若干问题的解释》第六条对为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息行为进行独立规制,是新型犯罪罪状表述抽象化与罪状解释具体化、信息时代信息价值多元化与危害行为多样化、现代社会犯罪治理精细化与刑法评价精准化的内在要求.为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息行为相关规范要素中的“为合法经营活动”应理解为主观超过要素,“获利五万元”应作严格解释,“曾因侵犯公民个人信息”应作广义解释,“其他情节严重”应包括信息数量标准.     

论共同体观念的语词生成与理论建构

本文运用发生学的方法，揭示共同体观念的语词生成和共同体思想的理论建构。第一部分，作者指出，共同体这个语词在西方语言中源于共善和公共，具有丰富的内涵。第二部分，作者指出，共同体是古希腊罗马哲学和政治学的重要概念，在哲学形上学和伦理学的语境下，共同体与共善的关系密不可分;而在政治学的语境下，共同体是公共的名词化和实体化，共善则是建构人类社会的纲领和目标。把善提升为至善是一条哲学伦理学的理论建构通道，而把善提升为共善，则是哲学政治学的通道，与哲学伦理学的理论建构通道并行不悖。第三部分，作者指出，奥古斯丁批判地吸取了柏拉图和西塞罗的相关思想，然后以公义为纲，建构了他的理想共同体———上帝之城。奥古斯丁对共善的探究，直接导致对理想共同体的理论建构。他的理想共同体以信仰为核心，以伦理为共同体成员的守则，以秩序与和谐为共同体的特色，以普爱为共同体生存与发展的动力。     

Decision‐making under uncertainty in child protection: Creating a just and learning culture

The argument is made for having a positive error culture in child protection to improve decision‐making and risk management. This requires organizations to accept that mistakes are likely and to treat them as opportunities for learning and improving. In contrast, in many organizations, a punitive reaction to errors leads to workers hiding them and developing a defensive approach to their practice with children and families. The safety management literature has shown how human error is generally not simply due to a “bad apple” but made more or less likely by the work context that helps or hinders good performance. Improving safety requires learning about the weaknesses in the organization that contribute to poor performance. To create a learning culture, people need to feel that when they talk about mistakes or weak practice, there will be a constructive response from their organization. One aspect of reducing the blame culture is to develop a shared understanding of how practice will be judged and how those appraising practice will avoid the hindsight bias. To facilitate a positive error culture, a set of risk principles are presented that offer a set of criteria by which practice should be appraised.     

Price bias and common practice in option pricing

Generally, the semiclosed-form option pricing formula for complex financial models depends on unobservable factors such as stochastic volatility and jump intensity. A popular practice is to use an estimate of these latent factors to compute the option price. However, in many situations this plug-and-play approximation does not yield the appropriate price. This article examines this bias and quantifies its impacts. We decompose the bias into terms that are related to the bias on the unobservable factors and to the precision of their point estimators. The approximated price is found to be highly biased when only the history of the stock price is used to recover the latent states. This bias is corrected when option prices are added to the sample used to recover the states' best estimate. We also show numerically that such a bias is propagated on calibrated parameters, leading to erroneous values. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 8–35; 2020 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

论人类命运共同体的“真、善、美”

人类命运共同体是“真”思想,它在继承马克思主义对“共同体”科学分析论述的基础上,结合当今世界发展的总体趋势不断探索、不断实践、不断发展并取得了显著成效。人类命运共同体是“和”“善”的思想,因为它充分汲取了中华文明的优秀基因,将中国传统文化中“和”与“善”的思想推向全世界。人类命运共同体是美丽的思想,因为它不仅准确把握了时代的主题,力求构建美丽新世界,还将全人类对美好生活的向往转变为现实的动力。构建人类命运共同体是马克思主义在21世纪焕发强大活力的显著象征,是中国优秀传统文化中和平思想的集中体现,是贡献给世界的中国智慧和中国方案。     

民族记忆与文化基因--瑶族民族记忆中“中华民族共同体”文化基因的表征及其价值阐释

民族记忆既是传承民族文化基因的载体,也是彰显民族文化基因的重要文化表征。民族记忆作为延续民族历史和文化基因的内在根基,通过传承民族历史文化、建构民族身份、塑造民族形象等形式传承和彰显民族文化基因的内在特征。以瑶族为代表的少数民族文化基因是中华民族文化基因的重要组成部分,深入挖掘瑶族民族记忆中蕴含的“中华民族共同体”文化基因,并阐释其内在的价值与意义,对培育和铸牢我国各民族的“中华民族共同体”意识有着重要的理论价值与现实意义。