Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

People with disability and new disaster communications: access and the social media mash-up

This article explores how a lack of access to increasingly complex and overlapping digital communications platforms in times of disaster for people with disabilities has the potential to make already life-threatening situations considerably more dangerous. As we are increasingly coming to rely on a social media mash-up of digital platforms to assist in communications during disaster situations, the issue of accessibility for people with disabilities is as dire as if it was high ground during a tsunami or transport during a typhoon. The contemporary social media environment is characterised by a complex and overlapping network of complementary platforms, populated by user-generated content, where people communicate and exchange ideas. In this environment, YouTube videos are posted to Facebook and embedded in blogs, and Twitter is used to link to these other sites and is itself embedded in other platforms. These networks are increasingly supplementing and supplanting more traditional communication platforms, such as the television and radio, particularly in times of disaster. The concern of this paper is that the elements from which this mash-up of communications channels is made are not always accessible to people with disabilities. This evolving network of social media-based communication exposes the limits of existing Internet-based universal design.     

清朝前期外贸立法中的具结制度研究

具结制度在清前期海外贸易管理中占据非常突出的地位 ,各种甘结、保结得到充分的运用。通过对其存在原因的分析、对其广泛运用的考察以及对其作用的探讨 ,发现建立在宗法伦理基础上的具结制度是传统管理方式的延续 ,并成为封建官府规范管理的基础。它束缚了所有外贸参与主体 ,钳制了外贸实际运作过程。对内压抑了本国商品经济的发展 ,对外不能抵御经济政治侵略 ,是清前期海外贸易管理具有闭关性质的重要原因     

构建立足“3R”的矿难治理预防管理体系

对劳动力载体的保护是劳动和社会保障的指向之一。面对矿难对劳动者生存权的侵蚀,加强矿难治理的准备工作,就成了生命对社会的合理诉求。这其中对劳动者生存权的尊重,也是构建和谐社会的应有之义。     

不同公司治理结构下财务导向模式的比较研究

公司治理结构决定其财务模式。论文以所有权和控制权表现形式不同 ,将现有公司治理结构分为外部监控型、内部监控型、家族控制型和转轨经济型 ,由此产生了经营者主导型、出资者主导型、业主主导型和内部人主导型的财务模式 ;并分析了我国公司治理结构与财务管理的现状、成因及发展趋向。对于寻找适合我国不同企业及同企业不同发展阶段的治理构架和财务模式奠定了基础     

我国深化素质教育改革的主要对策

目前我国素质教育改革的重点应是尽快启动素质教育评价体系建设国家研究项目,积极推进高校招生制度改革,促进学生身心协调健康成长,加快推进中小学实施小班化教学和加强农村师资建设。力争在较短的时间内实现高等教育质量的根本性恢复,稳步推进教育管理体制改革为素质教育改革目标的实现提供制度环境支持。     

严复的能力观及其对当代公共管理创新的启示——对史华兹《寻求富强:严复与西方》的一种解读

对美国著名汉学家史华兹的代表作<寻求富强:严复与西方>进行文本解读发现:该著所反映出的严复能力观对当代公共管理的创新发展具有重要的启示意义.严复认为中西方的关键性差别在于能力,而隐含其中的是以能力为导向的主体意识和公共意识方面的差距."-3代公共管理的创新发展有必要吸收严复能力观中的思想精髓,以国家能力建构为着力点,以公民启蒙为社会基石,以突显公正为其内在灵魂.对正处于社会转型期的国家而言,努力实现国家能力与公民自由问的平衡是达致善治的关键.     

论电子政务对行政决策的影响

电子政务是一场运用新的现代网络技术、信息技术为手段对传统政务管理模式的深刻变革。行政决策是行政管理的核心,贯穿于行政管理的全过程。电子政务的应用与推广,必将改变行政决策的环境、条件、技术与状态,从而深刻地影响着行政决策。要使电子政务对行政决策的影响发挥出应有的最大的效能,就必须理性运用电子政务,最大程度强化电子政务对行政决策的正面影响,最大程度弱化电子政务对行政决策的负面影响。     

清末广东的盗匪问题与政府清乡——从社会治理看清朝统治的末势

盗匪问题是清末广东突出的社会问题,在当时的文献中,常能见到诸如"粤东之盗,甲于天下"的说法。盗匪威胁民众的生命财产安全,造成社会动荡,不少也卷入革命党人发动的反清起义,危及当权者的统治。为消弭匪乱,稳定社会,清政府当局推行严厉清乡政策,以军事手段打击盗匪,而效果却并不明显。清末广东匪患的严重化以及政府于治理上的疲软处境,为我们进一步理解清末社会及清政府垮台的社会基础提供了更广的视角。     

论服务行政与政治发展之契合

人类生活发展至今，所倡导的服务行政与以往的统治行政、管制行政相比，在治理理念、治理机制、治理手段上等方面呈现出许多新变化，这些新变化与政治发展中的核心价值目标有着某些天然的契合。