英美国家的专家证据制度与我国专家证据制度的建立

专家证据是随着科技进步而广泛运用的证据形式。英美法系国家的专家证人制度将专家视为一种特殊证人较有特色。专家证人以鉴定结论或专家意见等多种形式向法庭提供证据 ,强调专家证人的公正性、独立性 ,通过交叉询问进行审查。而我国专家证据仅有鉴定结论一种形式 ,既不科学 ,又不能满足实际需要。借鉴英美国家的经验与教训 ,建立我国以鉴定结论为主、以专家证言为补充的专家证据制度势在必行     

听证在公共政策选择中的作用

听证是现代公共决策的重要程序,对于促进和实现公共决策科学化、民主化和法制化具有重要意义.在政策选择中引入听证程序不仅可以有效抑制和防止政府自利性,解决政策制定中的信息不对称问题,而且可以广纳民意、争取民心,增强政策选择的合法性和有效性.     

点击式合同的民事纠纷的管辖及其证据规则

点击式合同是在网络中应用的一种特殊的合同订立形式,由于其订立方式的特殊性,导致在其引起的民事纠纷处理上我国目前的管辖制度和证据规则难以适用,为了适应网络发展和新合同形式的需要,必须制定新的法律规则,以促进网络贸易的发展。     

Fast retraction of evidence in a probabilistic expert system

We present and justify a propagation algorithm to facilitate the simultaneous calculation, for every node in a probabilistic exper system of the distribution of the associated random quantity, conditional on all the evidence obtained about the remaining nodes.     

司法鉴定之中立性问题研究

“中立”,作为实现司法公正的基本理念从古罗马时代至今未有改变。有所缺憾的是,与中立理念在诉讼中的应有地位相比,诉讼法学界和司法实务部门并没有充分认识到中立的重要价值,对其理解过于狭窄,现有制度对诉讼中立性的保障或体现也有所不足,影响了实体公正与程序公正的实现。因此,笔者从广义的中立观出发,以司法鉴定制度作为切入点,对其中有违中立性的问题进行探讨,并提出了自己的管见,以求教于各位同仁。     

基于规则的MCD磨粒信息诊断专家系统

研究了一种用于发动机磨损状态监测与故障诊断的MCD磨粒信息诊断专家系统 (ES)。首先讨论了诊断知识的获取与规则表示方法 ,接着根据面向对象模板化设计思想 ,研究了一种知识库、推理机和人机界面的一体化构造策略 ,并在此基础上引入深度优先搜索、反向引导正向控制的启发性推理机制     

论审理医疗纠纷案件对美国法庭“专家证人制度”的借鉴——由中美两个案例比较谈起

近阶段,医疗纠纷冲突凸显,大量的矛盾往往最终汇集到法院。而审理医疗纠纷案件时,法官面临诸多法律困境,尤其是科学证据的采纳问题。分析认为,借鉴美国"专家证人"制度,人民法院应设立"专家辅助人",可以较为有效地解决这些问题。     

Modeling External Risks in Project Management

To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract.     

Intuitive Toxicology: Expert and Lay Judgments of Chemical Risks

Human beings have always been intuitive toxicologists, relying on their senses of sight, taste, and smell to detect harmful or unsafe food, water, and air. As we have come to recognize that our senses are not adequate to assess the dangers inherent in exposure to a chemical substance, we have created the sciences of toxicology and risk assessment to perform this function. Yet despite this great effort to overcome the limitations of intuitive toxicology, it has become evident that even our best scientific methods still depend heavily on extrapolations and judgments in order to infer human health risks from animal data. Many observers have acknowledged the inherent subjectivity in the assessment of chemical risks and have indicated a need to examine the subjective or intuitive elements of expert and lay risk judgments. We have begun such an examination by surveying members of the Society of Toxicology and the lay public about basic toxicological concepts, assumptions, and interpretations. Our results demonstrate large differences between toxicologists and laypeople, as well as differences between toxicologists working in industry, academia, and government. In addition, we find that toxicologists are sharply divided in their opinions about the ability to predict a chemical's effect on human health on the basis of animal studies. We argue that these results place the problems of risk communication in a new light. Although the survey identifies misconceptions that experts should clarify for the public, it also suggests that controversies over chemical risks may be fueled as much by limitations of the science of risk assessment and disagreements among experts as by public misconceptions.     

Inside two commercially available statistical expert systems

A decade of research into the applications of artificial intelligence in statistics has finally resulted in the appearance of commercially available statistical expert systems. This paper takes a closer look at two of these systems, which are now commercially available on microcomputers, and shows what knowledge they actually contain and how they operate. It is concluded that although the technology and concepts that drive these systems could still benefit from further improvement, the real challenge lies in defining and constructing the statistical knowledge and strategy that should be incorporated and in presenting the results to the user's full advantage.