行业系统性风险的动态特征及其影响因素

现代经济主体间网络关联性越来越强,风险很容易在不同行业间扩散,因此有效识别并分析系统性风险是防范金融危机的关键步骤。基于条件风险价值(CoVaR)和边际期望损失(MES)两个指标,对巨潮行业指数系统性风险的静态和动态特征进行了研究。结果发现,各行业间系统性风险的相关性较强,动态特征显示2009年年初和2016年3月为系统性风险的两个峰值;从分行业来看,材料行业的系统性风险最高,而消费和医药行业的系统性风险最低。采用动态面板模型分析影响行业系统性风险的市场面因素发现,短期涨幅较高、长期涨幅较低及流动性较充分的行业,其系统性风险往往更低。因此,应加强对系统性风险较高行业的监管力度,建立好金融防火墙,防止外部金融风险的过度传染;同时应加强对各行业的实时监控,尤其是关注短期暴涨暴跌及流动性充分与否的监控。     

Joint models for mixed categorical outcomes: a study of HIV risk perception and disease status in Mozambique

Two types of bivariate models for categorical response variables are introduced to deal with special categories such as ‘unsure’ or ‘unknown’ in combination with other ordinal categories, while taking additional hierarchical data structures into account. The latter is achieved by the use of different covariance structures for a trivariate random effect. The models are applied to data from the INSIDA survey, where interest goes to the effect of covariates on the association between HIV risk perception (quadrinomial with an ‘unknown risk’ category) and HIV infection status (binary). The final model combines continuation-ratio with cumulative link logits for the risk perception, together with partly correlated and partly shared trivariate random effects for the household level. The results indicate that only age has a significant effect on the association between HIV risk perception and infection status. The proposed models may be useful in various fields of application such as social and biomedical sciences, epidemiology and public health.     

Sexual Practices Among a Sample of Young Lesbian and Bisexual Women from Mexico: An Exploratory Study

Objective: To describe sexual practices in Mexican lesbian and bisexual women. Materials and method: An online survey was conducted with a nonprobabilistic sample of self-identified lesbian (n?=?768) and bisexual (n?=?371) women from the 32 states of Mexico. Results: Lesbians less frequently reported having had sex with a man than bisexual women. Preferred sexual practices with other women were external genital stimulation with fingers, internal genital stimulation with fingers, and oral genital stimulation. Most (～80%) participants did not use protection to prevent sexually transmitted infections. Conclusions: Our results can inform the design of promotion and prevention programs in sexual health aimed at sexual minority women.     

Involvement in the Juvenile Justice System for African American Adolescents: Examining Associations with Behavioral Health Problems

While researchers have found that African American youth experience higher levels of juvenile justice involvement at every system level (arrest, sentencing, and incarceration) relative to their other ethnic counterparts, few studies have explored how juvenile justice involvement and number of contacts might be correlated with this broad range of problems. A convenience sample of 638 African American adolescents living in predominantly low-income, urban communities participated in a survey related to juvenile justice involvement. Major findings using logistic regression models indicated that adolescents who reported juvenile justice system involvement versus no involvement were 2.3 times as likely to report mental health problems, substance abuse, and delinquent or youth offending behaviors. Additional findings documented that the higher the number of juvenile justice system contacts, the higher the rates of delinquent behaviors, alcohol and marijuana use, sex while high on drugs, and commercial sex. These findings suggest that identifying and targeting youth who have multiple juvenile justice system contacts, especially those in low-resourced communities for early intervention services, may be beneficial. Future research should examine whether peer network norms might mediate the relationships between juvenile justice involvement and youth problem behaviors.     

Estimation of the Force of Infection from Current Status Data Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Based on sero-prevalence data of rubella, mumps in the UK and varicella in Belgium, we show how the force of infection, the age-specific rate at which susceptible individuals contract infection, can be estimated using generalized linear mixed models (McCulloch & Searle, 2001). Modelling the dependency of the force of infection on age by penalized splines, which involve fixed and random effects, allows us to use generalized linear mixed models techniques to estimate both the cumulative probability of being infected before a given age and the force of infection. Moreover, these models permit an automatic selection of the smoothing parameter. The smoothness of the estimated force of infection can be influenced by the number of knots and the degree of the penalized spline used. To determine these, a different number of knots and different degrees are used and the results are compared to establish this sensitivity. Simulations with a different number of knots and polynomial spline bases of different degrees suggest - for estimating the force of infection from serological data - the use of a quadratic penalized spline based on about 10 knots.     

气管切开术后持续气道湿化预防呼吸道阻塞与肺部感染

目的探讨气管切开术后如何进行气道湿化才能有效预防呼吸道阻塞与肺部感染的发生。方法2005年1月至2008年5月,将200例气管切开术后的患者随机分为实验组和对照组,实验组用输氧雾化面罩进行持续气道湿化,对照组用传统方式在气管切开处覆盖双层生理盐水湿纱布并辅以雾化吸入及气管滴药,比较两种方法的效果。结果实验组发生痰痂形成、气道粘膜出血、呛咳、肺部感染、窒息的比例远低于对照组。结论持续气道湿化更有利于患者痰液的排出,可有效地预防呼吸道阻塞及肺部感染的发生。     

Quantitative Risk Estimation for a Legionella pneumophila Infection Due to Whirlpool Use

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment was used to quantify the risk associated with the exposure to Legionella pneumophila in a whirlpool. Conceptually, air bubbles ascend to the surface, intercepting Legionella from the traversed water. At the surface the bubble bursts into dominantly noninhalable jet drops and inhalable film drops. Assuming that film drops carry half of the intercepted Legionella, a total of four (95% interval: 1–9) and 4.5×10⁴ (4.4×10⁴ – 4.7×10⁴) cfu/min were estimated to be aerosolized for concentrations of 1 and 1,000 legionellas per liter, respectively. Using a dose‐response model for guinea pigs to represent humans, infection risks for active whirlpool use with 100 cfu/L water for 15 minutes were 0.29 (～0.11–0.48) for susceptible males and 0.22 (～0.06–0.42) for susceptible females. A L. pneumophila concentration of ≥1,000 cfu/L water was estimated to nearly always cause an infection (mean: 0.95; 95% interval: 0.9–～1). Estimated infection risks were time‐dependent, ranging from 0.02 (0–0.11) for 1‐minute exposures to 0.93 (0.86–0.97) for 2‐hour exposures when the L. pneumophila concentration was 100 cfu/L water. Pool water in Dutch bathing establishments should contain <100 cfu Legionella/L water. This study suggests that stricter provisions might be required to assure adequate public health protection.     

Isoniazid Completion Rates for Latent Tuberculosis Infection Among College Students Managed by a Community Pharmacist

Objective: The authors' objective was to document 9-month and previously recommended 6-month treatment completion rates for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in a pharmacistmanaged LTBI clinic in a community pharmacy on a college campus, and to describe patient characteristics. Participants: Participants were university students diagnosed with LTBI. Methods: The authors conducted a retrospective review of pharmacy records from 2000 to 2006. Main outcome measures included 6-month and 9-month LTBI treatment completion rates, total isoniazid (INH) tablets taken, characteristics of completers versus noncompleters, average time to treatment completion, and reported adverse drug events. Results: The 9-month completion rate was 59%, and the 6-month completion rate was 67%. Among those not completing treatment, 15.2% experienced fatigue and 2.2% experienced a rash (p = .04 and p = .03, respectively). Conclusion: LTBI clinics are a unique niche for community pharmacies and can provide individualized patient care to ensure LTBI treatment adherence, monitoring for disease progression, and safety of INH.     

汉民族传统观念对汉语造词的影响刍议

汉民族传统观念对汉语造词具有非常重要的影响。汉民族“尊卑有序 ,长幼有别”的观念 ,不仅使汉语中产生了大量的反映这种观念的词 ,而且影响到汉语某些词内词素的次序 ;历史上“惟我独尊 ,排斥异己”观念使汉语总是消极地吸收外来词 ,使汉语中产生了很多具有外来色彩标志的词 ;“语言拜物教”的观念使得汉语中产生了不少具有汉民族特色的禁忌语和委婉语     

技术创新能力的区域特征及其影响因素研究 ——兼论湖南技术创新的问题与对策

技术创新是企业生存与发展的根本保证，也是一个地区、一个国家经济增长的主要根源。为了更好的推动我国各地区的技术创新，为宏观政策的制定和宏观管理提供依据，有必要对我国技术创新能力的区域特征进行定性和定量分析，并探讨其相关影响因素。