Blinded continuous monitoring in clinical trials with recurrent event endpoints

In studies with recurrent event endpoints, misspecified assumptions of event rates or dispersion can lead to underpowered trials or overexposure of patients. Specification of overdispersion is often a particular problem as it is usually not reported in clinical trial publications. Changing event rates over the years have been described for some diseases, adding to the uncertainty in planning. To mitigate the risks of inadequate sample sizes, internal pilot study designs have been proposed with a preference for blinded sample size reestimation procedures, as they generally do not affect the type I error rate and maintain trial integrity. Blinded sample size reestimation procedures are available for trials with recurrent events as endpoints. However, the variance in the reestimated sample size can be considerable in particular with early sample size reviews. Motivated by a randomized controlled trial in paediatric multiple sclerosis, a rare neurological condition in children, we apply the concept of blinded continuous monitoring of information, which is known to reduce the variance in the resulting sample size. Assuming negative binomial distributions for the counts of recurrent relapses, we derive information criteria and propose blinded continuous monitoring procedures. The operating characteristics of these are assessed in Monte Carlo trial simulations demonstrating favourable properties with regard to type I error rate, power, and stopping time, ie, sample size.     

需求率受推广努力水平影响的新能源汽车租赁系统协调契约

考虑由新能源汽车租赁企业和政府组成的二级系统，在需求率为随机且与推广努力水平相关的市场环境下，建立了新能源汽车租赁企业和政府之间的博弈模型，探讨了分散决策、集中决策、收益共享与成本共担契约下的最优车队配置和推广努力水平，并对三种情形下的最优决策进行了比较和分析。研究结果表明：在分散决策情况下无法实现系统协调，通过引入成本共担与收益共享组合契约，当契约参数满足一定条件时，该组合契约模型不仅可以实现系统协调而且可以使系统成员达到帕累托改进。最后通过算例分析，验证了模型了可靠性和有效性。     

为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息的刑法规制

最高人民法院、最高人民检察院《关于办理侵犯公民个人信息刑事案件适用法律若干问题的解释》第六条对为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息行为进行独立规制,是新型犯罪罪状表述抽象化与罪状解释具体化、信息时代信息价值多元化与危害行为多样化、现代社会犯罪治理精细化与刑法评价精准化的内在要求.为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息行为相关规范要素中的“为合法经营活动”应理解为主观超过要素,“获利五万元”应作严格解释,“曾因侵犯公民个人信息”应作广义解释,“其他情节严重”应包括信息数量标准.     

Price bias and common practice in option pricing

Generally, the semiclosed-form option pricing formula for complex financial models depends on unobservable factors such as stochastic volatility and jump intensity. A popular practice is to use an estimate of these latent factors to compute the option price. However, in many situations this plug-and-play approximation does not yield the appropriate price. This article examines this bias and quantifies its impacts. We decompose the bias into terms that are related to the bias on the unobservable factors and to the precision of their point estimators. The approximated price is found to be highly biased when only the history of the stock price is used to recover the latent states. This bias is corrected when option prices are added to the sample used to recover the states' best estimate. We also show numerically that such a bias is propagated on calibrated parameters, leading to erroneous values. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 8–35; 2020 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

集中优势发展重庆电子信息产业

在分析重庆市电子信息设备制造业现状、发展的有利与不利因素以及国内外发展态势的基础上对重庆(?)子信息产业的发展提出了九条对策建议。     

试论近中国茶馆的社会功能

在近代中国 ,茶馆与民众生活紧密相连 ,并承担着广泛而又复杂的社会功能。茶馆与民众的经济生活相关联 ,也是民间纠纷调解的重要场所。同时 ,作为一个公众活动的场所 ,茶馆也是民间社会信息传播的集散地 ;民众在茶馆中表达自己的见解 ,也使得茶馆成为一种控制舆论的力量。茶馆的这些功能是近代民间社会内在运作逻辑的体现。     

时装画与服装文化

时装画是为了服装的设计、制作和推介而创作的具有审美价值的绘画样式。时装画对于服装文化的发展具有推动作用 ,探讨和研究时装画产生、发展的历史和现状 ,对于发展中国的服装文化 ,具有重要的意义。     

数字时代的挑战与教育情报的对策

分析了数字时代的信息特点以及给教育情报领域带来的挑战 ,提出了教育情报面对现实应采取的对策。旨在从某个侧面强化教育信息资源建设的整合度。     

互联网时代的信息传播悖论

互联网上存在这样一个悖论——一方面是海量信息 ,另一方面却是垃圾信息 ,有用信息难以查找 ,文章分析了这一现象产生的原因及其对网络生态环境的危害 ,并初步提出了解决方法。     

价值管理:会计的一场革命

由于会计环境的巨大变化 ,现有会计体系呈现出固有的缺陷 ,会计变革已迫在眉睫。传统会计是一个经济信息系统的观点 ,已束缚了会计学科的发展。价值管理已成为当今企业管理的核心内容。从价值管理角度诠释会计新概念 ,可以克服现有会计体系的固有缺陷 ,极大地扩展了会计学科的视野。新会计体系将包括价值信息管理(财务会计、管理会计和审计等 )、价值活动管理 (财务管理、内部控制制度等 )