从主权国家的兴衰看权力博弈形态的转型

传统的国际关系理论,无论是现实主义、自由主义、建构主义还是科学行为主义理论,都是把主权国家抽象成一个统一的国际关系行为体。这一行为主体有一致的利益,也自然要有一致的对外政策目标和手段。在20世纪,尤其是在两次世界大战和冷战期间,这一概念抽象是非常准确的。但冷战结束以后,尤其是进入21世纪以后,这一概念抽象逐渐与国际关系的现实相违背。一方面,国家综合实力并不能直接转化为具体领域的竞争优势;另一方面,很多国家,包括超级大国在内,其对外政策的主要阻力可能不是所谓的竞争对手,而是其国内不同的利益集团。这导致传统的国际关系理论,从假设到概念和推理层面,都已经无法解释和预测今天的世界,而权力小博弈理论可以为认识多元复杂互动博弈时代的国际关系提供一个新的解释框架。     

Statistical testing strategies for assessing treatment efficacy and marker accuracy in phase III trials

When a candidate predictive marker is available, but evidence on its predictive ability is not sufficiently reliable, all‐comers trials with marker stratification are frequently conducted. We propose a framework for planning and evaluating prospective testing strategies in confirmatory, phase III marker‐stratified clinical trials based on a natural assumption on heterogeneity of treatment effects across marker‐defined subpopulations, where weak rather than strong control is permitted for multiple population tests. For phase III marker‐stratified trials, it is expected that treatment efficacy is established in a particular patient population, possibly in a marker‐defined subpopulation, and that the marker accuracy is assessed when the marker is used to restrict the indication or labelling of the treatment to a marker‐based subpopulation, ie, assessment of the clinical validity of the marker. In this paper, we develop statistical testing strategies based on criteria that are explicitly designated to the marker assessment, including those examining treatment effects in marker‐negative patients. As existing and developed statistical testing strategies can assert treatment efficacy for either the overall patient population or the marker‐positive subpopulation, we also develop criteria for evaluating the operating characteristics of the statistical testing strategies based on the probabilities of asserting treatment efficacy across marker subpopulations. Numerical evaluations to compare the statistical testing strategies based on the developed criteria are provided.     

汇率货币模型的非线性协整关系检验——基于深度GRU神经网络

本文采用深度门控循环单元（GRU）神经网络探讨三种汇率货币模型（弹性价格、前瞻性和实际利率差模型）的非线性协整关系。GRU技术在深度学习中具有智能记忆、自主学习和强逼近能力等优点。为此，本文运用该技术对6组典型浮动汇率制国别数据进行了非线性Johansen协整检验。结果表明，汇率与宏观经济基本面之间存在非线性协整关系，从而说明了货币模型在非线性条件下的有效性，以及先进的深度学习工具在检验经济理论中的优势。     

The impact of social power and influence on the implementation of innovation strategies: A case study of a UK mega infrastructure construction project

Influence plays a key role in reaching consensus among multiple actors involved in project-based decision-making processes. While prior literature devotes considerable attention to describing influence, little attention has been paid to influence at the individual level of the strategic project manager within the context of megaprojects. This research intended to fill this knowledge gap by identifying and describing the influence strategies that a strategic project manager applies when implementing innovation strategies on megaprojects. A qualitative case study was used to examine the complex social processes involved in a major UK capital investment programme. The findings underline a critical subset of influence strategies, notably higher-management support, inspirational appeal and bargaining. The study proposes a utilitarian structure of social power comprising selective, supportive and executory power bases.     

用联想神经网络设计的信道均衡器

研究了联想神经网络在数字通信信道均衡器实现中的应用,讨论了其设计方法和设计步骤,给出了计算机模拟结果,并进行了性能比较。研究结果表明:Hopfield联想神经网络实现的信道均衡器具有比传统线性横向均衡器更优越的性能。     

ELAN网络控制系统通信处理时间的测量与分析

针对ELAN嵌入式网络微机控制系统中的实时性问题，给出了ELAN网络系统中的通信处理时间的测量方法，并对网络中的通信处理时间进行了分析，最后提出了代码下装的方法。     

关于高校办公室网络化管理的思考

随着科学技术和高等教育的发展,网络也广泛运用于高校办公室的管理工作,并在其中起着重要的作用。     

构建现代远程开放教育考试体系初探

现代远程开放教育是基于以学习者为中心的开放学习和个别化学习。我们应从素质教育的培养目标出发 ,依据现代考试测量理论 ,利用现代科技手段 ,建立现代远程开放教育考试体系 ,客观、准确地评价学习者的进步状况以及在学识、能力等方面达到的水平 ,使学习者在学习过程中不断自我完善 ,培养他们积极进取的精神     

互联网时代的信息传播悖论

互联网上存在这样一个悖论——一方面是海量信息 ,另一方面却是垃圾信息 ,有用信息难以查找 ,文章分析了这一现象产生的原因及其对网络生态环境的危害 ,并初步提出了解决方法。