Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.     

陕北方言的疑问句

陕北方言的疑问句和普通话的疑问句不同 ,只有是非问句、特指问句和选择问句三种 ,且结构格式也不一样。是非问句通常用类似于正反问的“体标记 否定词”格式表示 ;选择问句是在选择项之间嵌入“是”字 ,并于选项末缀体标记 ;特指问句则表现为一系列不同于普通话的特殊疑问代词的使用。同时三种问句格式在语义、语用方面也和普通话的相应形式有一些差别     

加强研究生招生管理 提高招生质量

本文从招生名额的分配、招生宣传、专业课的命题评卷、复试四个招生的主要环节,论述了研究生招生过程中存在的一些问题及我校加强招生管理采取的措施.     

政治课“激凝·讨论”教学模式优化选择的实践与研究

政治课教学“激疑·讨论”模式,不同于传统的讲授法单向信息传递与谈话法一对一信息交流的模式,而是由教师主动设置疑问(激疑),以引起学生兴趣并质疑,然后通过师生间的互动讨论(释疑),最后求得共识与真知(无疑),从而培养学生的求知能力与主体意识,并进行思想政治上的自我教育。     

多维视域下的喀什：从研究视野及诸研究问题说起

位于中国最西部的喀什具有悠久的城市历史、伊斯兰历史、多宗教交流史、多文化融通史,这就使得喀什文化成为民族特色鲜明同时兼容多种他者文化元素的典范.与此同时,在喀什城市发展史上,体现出鲜明的文化改造、创新的变动过程.这些决定了对喀什城市的研究必须要有开放的视野和充分语境化的意识,要对现今有关研究存在的诸问题有清晰的认识.     

Incorporating eye tracking into cognitive interviewing to pretest survey questions

In this study, we investigated whether incorporating eye tracking into cognitive interviewing is effective when pretesting survey questions. In the control condition, a cognitive interview was conducted using a standardized interview protocol that included pre-defined probing questions for about one-quarter of the questions in a 52-item questionnaire. In the experimental condition, participants’ eye movements were tracked while they completed an online version of the questionnaire. Simultaneously, their reading patterns were monitored for evidence of response problems. Afterward, a cognitive interview was conducted using an interview protocol identical to that in the control condition. We compared both approaches with regard to the number and types of problems they detected. We found support for our hypothesis that cognitive interviewing and eye tracking complement each other effectively. As expected, the hybrid method was more productive in identifying both questionnaire problems and problematic questions than applying cognitive interviewing alone.     

Eye-tracking methodology: exploring the processing of question formats in web surveys

In social research, the use of agree/disagree (A/D) questions is a popular method for measuring attitudes. Research has shown that A/D questions require complex cognitive processing and are susceptible to response bias. Thus, some researchers recommend the use of item-specific (IS) questions. This study examines the processing of A/D and IS questions, using eye-tracking methodology. By recording respondents’ eye movements, how respondents process survey questions can be evaluated. The results reveal that IS questions cause more and longer fixations. However, this only applies to the response categories. There are no differences regarding the question stems. Altogether, it seems that IS response categories trigger deeper cognitive processing than A/D response categories.     

Open Dialogue: Frequently Asked Questions

Open Dialogue is an approach to working with people and their families experiencing psychosocial distress. Interest in Open Dialogue in Australia has been growing recently, raising questions about its adaption and implementation to local contexts. This article is an attempt to answer some of the frequently asked questions we have encountered in training and discussions about Open Dialogue. We attempt to provide responses to questions of how Open Dialogue is different to what is done already, how it fits with current approaches, how you know if you are doing it, whether it is passive or just about doing reflections, issues about including the social network, and concerns about the evidence base. This article aims to present a variety of viewpoints in relation to these questions and to hopefully further discussions on how Open Dialogue can be implemented and adapted to Australian health care and social care contexts.     

法律位阶划分标准探新

法律位阶不仅是法理学的一个基本问题,而且是"上位法优于下位法"规则正确适用的重要前提.目前学界对于法律位阶的划分根据是什么的问题在理论上颇有争议.我国<立法法>本身也没有作出清晰的回答,从而造成对我国法律位阶划分标准认识上的分歧.探源梅尔克-凯尔森法律位阶理论模式可知,法律位阶关系具有三个特性:条件性、具体化和控制性,而位阶划分的实质标准就在于能否实施层级监督和合法审查.这一标准之重构,使我国复杂的法源位阶关系明朗化,并可对实践中的争议性问题作出回应和解答.     

提高"试卷分析"的科学性

考试具有评定学生成绩,检查教师教学效果的双重作用.结合教学实践,运用统计学原理,提出了进行试卷分析的有效方法,进而达到科学评价考试质量的目的.