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排序方式: 共有261条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
货币政策冲击对工业产出和价格的非对称影响,是新常态下把握好货币供给政策的方向、力度和节奏的重要参考依据,有助于提升货币供给政策的针对性、灵活性和前瞻性。局部投影方法在不同区制下,计算工业产出和价格对货币供给冲击的脉冲响应结果表明:货币供给冲击对工业产出的影响具有不确定性,且总体上表现为中性特征;而货币供给冲击对工业价格的影响不仅在不同区制下,而且在新常态前后均表现出显著的差异性和非对称性,总体来说是短期有效,长期中性的。情景设计的分析结果显示新常态下采用增加货币供给的政策来刺激工业经济是不可取的,其作用效果可能出现工业产出停滞不前,工业价格急剧飙升的工业滞胀。因此,需要从工业产业升级,工业技术创新等工业供给侧寻求工业经济新的增长点和动力机制。 相似文献
2.
Gabriela Beganu 《Statistical Methods and Applications》2007,16(3):347-356
It is known that the Henderson Method III (Biometrics 9:226–252, 1953) is of special interest for the mixed linear models
because the estimators of the variance components are unaffected by the parameters of the fixed factor (or factors). This
article deals with generalizations and minor extensions of the results obtained for the univariate linear models. A MANOVA
mixed model is presented in a convenient form and the covariance components estimators are given on finite dimensional linear
spaces. The results use both the usual parametric representations and the coordinate-free approach of Kruskal (Ann Math Statist
39:70–75, 1968) and Eaton (Ann Math Statist 41:528–538, 1970). The normal equations are generalized and it is given a necessary
and sufficient condition for the existence of quadratic unbiased estimators for covariance components in the considered model. 相似文献
3.
张静 《重庆交通学院学报(社会科学版)》2004,4(4):111-113
以说话人自我为中心是指示语的一个重要属性,也是交际过程中各方都基本认同的参照准则。但有的时候说话人为了达到某种特殊的效果,如语用移情效果,会有意选择违背以说话人自我为中心这条准则,把指示中心转移到听话人或其他听众身上,从而发生了指示语映射现象。对这种语言现象的深入了解和分析,有助于正确理解和使用指示词语,从而更深刻地认识指示这一现象的语用性质。 相似文献
4.
Chong Gu 《Revue canadienne de statistique》2004,32(4):347-358
The author proposes some simple diagnostics for assessing the necessity of selected terms in smoothing spline ANOVA models. The elimination of practically insignificant terms generally enhances the interpretability of the estimates and sometimes may also have inferential implications. The diagnostics are derived from Kullback‐Leibler geometry and are illustrated in the settings of regression, probability density estimation, and hazard rate estimation. 相似文献
5.
尹洪山 《青岛科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2005,21(4):68-71
以频率为中心的二语习得理论认为,输入频率是影响第二语言习得顺序的重要因素,并对语言结构的能产性起着决定作用。投射假设则认为,语言习得并不完全以语言输入为基础,学习者对某个语言参数的习得往往蕴含着对另外一个相关参数的习得。频率和投射从不同的侧面揭示了第二语言习得的特点,在教学中恰当地利用这种互补有利于促进语言习得的进程,提高教学效率。 相似文献
6.
李开灿 《湖北师范学院学报(哲学社会科学版)》1996,(6)
利用随机变量的投影关系,定义了偏方差矩阵,从而导出了逆方差阵元素的一种形式在随机变量是正态的条件,它为判别条件独立性有方便的操作办法。 相似文献
7.
《Journal of Social Work Practice》2012,26(1):81-90
This paper arises out of psychoanalytically oriented consultancy to teams of staff in the helping professions where there is a statutory 'duty to care'. It takes as its premise the seemingly paradoxical hypothesis that workers may need to split off part of their emotional experience in order to preserve their own mental health and provide reliable services to their clients. I argue that while a professional 'duty to care' requires us to be emotionally 'in touch', the demands of our clients together with the demands of the institutional response to the 'duty to care' cause us to split off parts of our awareness. I also argue that provided the splitting does not become extreme we are doing no more or less than the rest of society. In other words, there is a degree of 'normal splitting' which numbs our awareness of danger and destructiveness and seeks to protect us from too much anxiety and pain. Yet if professional workers are charged with the responsibility of assessing risk and acting accordingly for the protection of all concerned they need ways of being 'in touch' (re-integrating the splits) for some or enough of the time. Finally, I will describe ways of being 'in touch', illustrating the difficulty and the pain of re-integrating the splits and some of the insights that can arise out of this work with examples from my consultancy work. 相似文献
8.
Predictive Inference for Big,Spatial, Non‐Gaussian Data: MODIS Cloud Data and its Change‐of‐Support
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Aritra Sengupta Noel Cressie Brian H. Kahn Richard Frey 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2016,58(1):15-45
Remote sensing of the earth with satellites yields datasets that can be massive in size, nonstationary in space, and non‐Gaussian in distribution. To overcome computational challenges, we use the reduced‐rank spatial random effects (SRE) model in a statistical analysis of cloud‐mask data from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on board NASA's Terra satellite. Parameterisations of cloud processes are the biggest source of uncertainty and sensitivity in different climate models’ future projections of Earth's climate. An accurate quantification of the spatial distribution of clouds, as well as a rigorously estimated pixel‐scale clear‐sky‐probability process, is needed to establish reliable estimates of cloud‐distributional changes and trends caused by climate change. Here we give a hierarchical spatial‐statistical modelling approach for a very large spatial dataset of 2.75 million pixels, corresponding to a granule of MODIS cloud‐mask data, and we use spatial change‐of‐Support relationships to estimate cloud fraction at coarser resolutions. Our model is non‐Gaussian; it postulates a hidden process for the clear‐sky probability that makes use of the SRE model, EM‐estimation, and optimal (empirical Bayes) spatial prediction of the clear‐sky‐probability process. Measures of prediction uncertainty are also given. 相似文献
9.
Giovanni Maria Merola 《Journal of applied statistics》2020,47(8):1325
We propose an algorithmic framework for computing sparse components from rotated principal components. This methodology, called SIMPCA, is useful to replace the unreliable practice of ignoring small coefficients of rotated components when interpreting them. The algorithm computes genuinely sparse components by projecting rotated principal components onto subsets of variables. The so simplified components are highly correlated with the corresponding components. By choosing different simplification strategies different sparse solutions can be obtained which can be used to compare alternative interpretations of the principal components. We give some examples of how effective simplified solutions can be achieved with SIMPCA using some publicly available data sets. 相似文献
10.
在回顾2014年国际原油市场主要发展历程的基础上,从两方面对2015年油价走势进行了发展态势展望和预测分析。研究认为:受全球经济形势复杂多变,复苏进程缓慢、脆弱而不均衡以及供需基本面因素的主要作用,在产量相对过剩情况下,2015年油价上半年依旧延续下跌趋势,国际原油价格还将在低位震荡,下半年或出现企稳反弹,全年油价波动幅度小于2014年。预计Brent原油均价为50~65美元/桶,WTI原油均价为45~60美元/桶。 相似文献