Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability to Spatially Localized Failures with Applications to Chinese Railway System

This article studies a general type of initiating events in critical infrastructures, called spatially localized failures (SLFs), which are defined as the failure of a set of infrastructure components distributed in a spatially localized area due to damage sustained, while other components outside the area do not directly fail. These failures can be regarded as a special type of intentional attack, such as bomb or explosive assault, or a generalized modeling of the impact of localized natural hazards on large‐scale systems. This article introduces three SLFs models: node centered SLFs, district‐based SLFs, and circle‐shaped SLFs, and proposes a SLFs‐induced vulnerability analysis method from three aspects: identification of critical locations, comparisons of infrastructure vulnerability to random failures, topologically localized failures and SLFs, and quantification of infrastructure information value. The proposed SLFs‐induced vulnerability analysis method is finally applied to the Chinese railway system and can be also easily adapted to analyze other critical infrastructures for valuable protection suggestions.     

伦理视角下的工程失败问题

工程失败以对生命造成显在或潜在危害,投入和收效成反比,失误超过可控范围并造成人财损失以及对环境的可持续发展造成巨大破坏等等为特征;个体利益与职业伦理的矛盾、团体利益与社会公益的矛盾是导致工程失败的价值根源;工程师、施工团队、企业以及政府等不同工程主体的角色伦理冲突是导致工程失败的主体根源。对此,应以富有伦理和法律意义的责任概念为核心,从预防、监督、惩戒、伦理约束等方面着手,以解决问题。     

俄语交际失误产生的两个重要原因

交际失误现象在非正式交际中是不可避免的,在本质上属于生动的、自发的交流。到目前为止,语言学文献中很少讨论言语相互作用而导致的交际不顺畅,以及不成功交际中产生的交流失误。现代语言学对交际失误的系统研究刚刚开始。引起交际失误的语言学因素包括编码错误和评价行为特征,对交际失误产生的原因进行研究,很有必要。     

不同服务失误情境下顾客自我威胁感知对抱怨动机的影响——自我监控的调节作用

此前关于顾客抱怨行为的研究重在服务失误如何直接导致顾客的外在行为,而忽略了顾客个体对服务失误的心理认知。文章从自我概念的视角研究服务失误如何引发顾客抱怨动机,以旅行社游客为被试,采用有控制的情景模拟实验,检验了不同服务失误情境下顾客自我威胁感知对抱怨动机的影响,同时考查了顾客自我监控性的调节作用,希望揭示服务失误情境下顾客抱怨动机产生的心理机制以及相关的情境因素。研究结果表明,服务交付系统失误对顾客公开自我威胁感知有正向影响,对顾客需求反应失误既正向影响顾客公开自我威胁,又正向影响顾客私下自我威胁;员工自发而多余行为失误仅对顾客私下自我威胁有正向影响;顾客自我威胁感知对抱怨动机有正向影响,在服务失误与顾客抱怨动机之间起到中介作用;自我监控性在自我威胁感知对顾客抱怨动机的影响中起到负向调节作用。研究结果对于服务企业围绕顾客自我概念修复和发展展开抱怨管理,提高服务补救有效性具有重要的启示。     

A comparison of Japanese failure models: Hybrid neural networks,logit models,and discriminant analysis

This article looks at the ability of a relatively new technique, hybrid artificial neural networks (ANNs), to predict Japanese banking and firm failures. These models are compared with traditional statistical techniques and conventional ANN models. The results suggest that hybrid neural networks outperform all other models in predicting failure for one year prior to the event. This suggests that for researchers, policymakers, and others interested in early warning systems, the hybrid network may be a useful tool for predicting banking and firm failures.     

一种简单的Internet级联故障模型

介绍了Internet动力学和拓扑特征,分析了引发Internet级联故障的原因,提出了一种简单的Internet级联故障模型(ICFM).仿真实验验证了Internet存在的自组织临界特性,并进一步探讨了该特性可能的成因.该模型将有助于对Internet级联故障的检测和控制技术的研究.     

跨文化语用失误的重新界定及分类

文章以言语和非言语交际为基础,对跨文化语用失误进行重新界定和分类,使广大英语教师意识到在对学生进行言语语用能力培养的同时,也应该注重学生非言语语用能力的培养。     

习俗文化与跨文化交际

语言不仅是信息的载体,而且是文化的载体,语言运用方式集中反映了各民族的文化特征。习俗是一个民族在特定的历史条件和地理环境中发展和承袭下来的,是一种文化形态的象征和体现。习俗文化是文化的重要组成部分。跨文化交际中产生的许多问题,包括误解、不快、关系紧张,甚至产生严重后果,都是由于交际双方不了解对方的习俗文化造成的。习俗文化差异是跨文化交际成功的重要障碍之一。这就要求人们在跨文化交际中具备深厚的文化功底,建立良好的习俗差异意识。     

Statistical analysis of a two-unit dependent repairable system

Maximum likelihood estimators are investigated a for lr-out-of 2:G repairable system when failures and repairs are statistically dependent. Under two censoring schemes Accelerated Life Testing Procedure (ALTP) is used to obtain the estimates. Information matrices are supplied and a special case when the failure and repair phenomenon are independent of each other is considered.     

Bayes prediction of number of failures in weibull samples

This work is concerned with the Bayesian prediction problem of the number of components which will fail in a future time interval, when the failure times are Weibull distributed. Both the 1-sample and the 2-sample prediction problems are dealed with, and some choices of the prior densities on the distribution parameters are discussed which are relatively easy to work with and allow different degrees of knowledge on the failure mechanism to be incorporated in the predictive procedure. Useful relations between the predictive distribution on the number of future failures and the predictive distribution on the future failure times are derived. Numerical examples are also given.