Book Reviews

Books reviewed:
M Hollander and D Wolfe, Nonparametric Statistical Methods
T Leonard and J.S.J Hsu, Bayesian Methods     

On Block Updating in Markov Random Field Models for Disease Mapping

Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) models are commonly used to model spatial correlation in disease mapping applications. For Bayesian inference by MCMC, so far mainly single-site updating algorithms have been considered. However, convergence and mixing properties of such algorithms can be extremely poor due to strong dependencies of parameters in the posterior distribution. In this paper, we propose various block sampling algorithms in order to improve the MCMC performance. The methodology is rather general, allows for non-standard full conditionals, and can be applied in a modular fashion in a large number of different scenarios. For illustration we consider three different applications: two formulations for spatial modelling of a single disease (with and without additional unstructured parameters respectively), and one formulation for the joint analysis of two diseases. The results indicate that the largest benefits are obtained if parameters and the corresponding hyperparameter are updated jointly in one large block. Implementation of such block algorithms is relatively easy using methods for fast sampling of Gaussian Markov random fields ( Rue, 2001 ). By comparison, Monte Carlo estimates based on single-site updating can be rather misleading, even for very long runs. Our results may have wider relevance for efficient MCMC simulation in hierarchical models with Markov random field components.     

小区建筑物共有权权属分析

共有权权属是小区建筑物区分所有制度的核心问题。区分所有共有权与一般财产共有权在权利主客体等方面有着显著的不同,并具有特殊的按份共有的性质。国外相关立法和学理对共用部分的界定各有特点,且对其有较为一致的三种分类。中国现有立法中关于小区建筑物共有权权属的规定较为零乱。中国应借鉴国外成功的立法经验,统一、完善相关立法,以保障业主的合法权益。     

农户种植业风险及其认知比较研究

通过对浙江、上海、山东、湖北和安徽五个不同地区660户农户实地访问调查资料的分析发现:目前我国农户从事种植业生产经营的风险主要来源于气候等自然因素、农产品市场价格和农业生产资料价格;农户更关注农产品产量而非市场价格波动;在地区和作物层面上,具有不同生产特征和家庭特征的农户对种植业生产经营风险的认知具有一定的差异性;目前农户弱化种植业风险主要倾向于依靠自身的力量而较少依靠农业保险、农业组织及政府等外部力量。政府需要从完善信息发布体系、加强对农资市场管理、促进农村合作经济组织及农业保险的发展等方面入手,提高农户弱化生产经营风险的能力。     

Work/Care Regimes: Institutions,Culture and Behaviour and the Australian Case

Increasingly around the industrialized world, labour markets rely upon the paid work of women, many of whom have dependents. Such changing patterns of paid work by women — and by men — are located within work/care regimes that are more or less hostile to the needs of paid workers who care for others. This article sets out a model of work/care regimes and locates the Australian case within international and historical contexts. In Australia, the unchanging normative male worker archetype dominates institutions of work and care, while the cultures of motherhood and fatherhood remain stoically resistant to renovation. In the meantime, the behaviour of working women runs ahead of these unchanging cultures and institutions, creating a policy interest in ‘reconciling’ work and care, but a failure to provide it. The reasons for this failure are outlined.     

共同背景和梦想下的相互依存——对《人与鼠》中两人物对话的分析

心理语言学家认为交谈者双方的诸多特性因素无疑会影响交谈过程的本质,这些特性包括交谈双方的年龄、性别、社会地位、种族背景、友谊的程度和关系的亲密程度.由美国著名作家约翰·斯坦贝克所著的《人与鼠》是一部极其感人并长期为读者喜爱的作品.该作品描写了两个劳动工人间真挚的友谊,相互依存以及共同的梦想.从《人与鼠》中,我们可以得知两人物之间的对话是有特性的,他们真势的友谊,相互依存以及共同的梦想是影响其交流方式最重要的特性.通过分析其背景,共同话题,共同梦想,我们可以总结出两人物的谈话方式是与心理语言学交谈的本质特性相符.     

土地红利公共利益属性的现实基础与保障机制

中国土地红利是经济红利和政策红利共同缔造的特殊红利形式,彰显土地红利公共利益属性是社会公平正义的内在要求。从逻辑上分析,我国土地红利源于土地公有制基础上的一系列制度安排,城镇化和工业化、土地用途管制、土地区位优势、公共投资等因素共同推高了土地价格,奠定了土地红利公共利益属性的坚实基础。为维护土地红利的公共利益属性,国家一方面将其纳入公共财政范畴,以规范公共财政收支的方式实现土地收益“全民共享”,防止土地红利被少数人垄断。另一方面,通过完善相关制度,改进土地收益的税法体系,科学界定房地产开发相关税收的税基和税额;健全土地征收制度,确保征地的目的、程序、收益合法且符合公益;推进土地红利城乡间公平分配,协调公共利益与个人利益的关系,实现土地红利共享。     

贫困农户脱贫主体性不足的发生逻辑

“干部积极干，农户站边看”的贫困群体脱贫逆化现象影响着农村社会的健康发展和脱贫攻坚工作的高效开展。通过田野调查发现，贫困农户脱贫主体性不足的发生逻辑首先在于小农理性下受利益驱使的农户形成争当贫困户的“自愿型贫困”，造成贫困农户“不愿”脱贫；其次，贫困农户在贫困识别、资源匹配和脱贫行动选择方面因决策受限形成“边缘化治贫”，造成农户的“不能”脱贫；最后，贫困农户受贫困文化影响导致“精神贫困”，造成贫困农户的“内卷化脱贫”。因此，需要从增加贫困农户脱贫意愿和强化贫困农户内生脱贫能力两个维度来构建贫困农户的有效脱贫主体性。     

Exporting stimulus and “shared prosperity”: Reinventing foreign aid for a retroliberal era

The global aid world has changed, partly in response to the reconfigurations of geopolitical power and to the global financial crisis (GFC). Paradoxically, in the face of recession in most northern economies, collectively foreign aid contributions have not fallen. However there has been a qualitative shift in its narrative and nature. This new regime—which we term retroliberalism—projects the concept of “shared prosperity,” but constitutes a return to explicit self‐interest designed to bolster private sector trade and investment. Drawing evidence from New Zealand and the United Kingdom, we argue that aid programmes are increasingly functioning as “exported stimulus” packages.     

我国网络课程建设存在的问题及对策

分析指出了我国网络课程建设存在着重申报、轻建设、不持续、更新少、共享难、效果差等问题,提出了课程建设要以学生为主体、课程质量要以学生满意为最终标准,对于目前开展的资源共享课和视频公开课建设,教育行政部门要有顶层设计,要做到网络课程的真正共享,需要从政策层面规范各学科或专业的教学计划、规定学生可以以网络课程完成的科目和学分,学生在规定的教学计划内自由选修网络课程,学分不受地域和学校限制,跨校选修,全国认可;为此网络课程应给与学生自主空间,具有学习过程网络监控、课程考核和学分认证等功能。