A Bayesian Analysis of Abundance,Trend, and Population Viability for Harbor Seals in Iliamna Lake,Alaska

Harbor seals in Iliamna Lake, Alaska, are a small, isolated population, and one of only two freshwater populations of harbor seals in the world, yet little is known about their abundance or risk for extinction. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate abundance and trend of this population. Observational models were developed from aerial survey and harvest data, and they included effects for time of year and time of day on survey counts. Underlying models of abundance and trend were based on a Leslie matrix model that used prior information on vital rates from the literature. We developed three scenarios for variability in the priors and used them as part of a sensitivity analysis. The models were fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The population production rate implied by the vital rate estimates was about 5% per year, very similar to the average annual harvest rate. After a period of growth in the 1980s, the population appears to be relatively stable at around 400 individuals. A population viability analysis assessing the risk of quasi‐extinction, defined as any reduction to 50 animals or below in the next 100 years, ranged from 1% to 3%, depending on the prior scenario. Although this is moderately low risk, it does not include genetic or catastrophic environmental events, which may have occurred to the population in the past, so our results should be applied cautiously.     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

集中优势发展重庆电子信息产业

在分析重庆市电子信息设备制造业现状、发展的有利与不利因素以及国内外发展态势的基础上对重庆(?)子信息产业的发展提出了九条对策建议。     

大学英语教学改革视野中的"情景教学"特色分析

情景教学体现了英语教学改革整体化、情景化的内在灵魂与要求 ,适应了我国大学英语教学改革的需要。《新编大学英语》采用以学生为中心的主题教学模式 ,通过以生活、图画展现情景 ,以音乐渲染情景 ,以角色扮演创设情景的方式为情景教学的实施与运用提供了基础 ,呈现出鲜明的情景教学特色。     

困境中的执著与前行——转型时期俄罗斯哲学研究现状综述

解体之后的哲学在俄罗斯遭到了前所未有的冷落,它既面临着俄罗斯是否还需要哲学的问题,又面临着被终结的可能,但是俄罗斯哲学以自己一贯的优秀品质在低靡的社会现实中艰难地跋涉,关注着一些积极而有意义的同社会生活密切相关的问题。暂时摆脱意识形态束缚的俄罗斯哲学,更加清醒理智地期待哲学的美好未来。     

谈新形势下高校辅导员工作的"三新

分析了当前高校辅导员工作面临的新形势及当今大学生的新特点,在此基础上,提出了辅导员工作的新思路。     

对我国高校思想道德教育现状与发展的分析

我国高等学校思想道德教育的理论体系比较完备,但具体实践中还存在一些问题,面对这一现状,我们可以采取有效措施,提高高等学校思想道德教育的水平。     

我国网络金融的发展现状与监管思路

继金融深化、金融自由化、金融国际化之后,金融网络化的问题再次成为关注的焦点。本文回顾了网络金融的发展态势及其可能对传统金融产业产生的深刻影响,对我国网络金融在发展过程中存在的主要问题进行了深入分析,在此基础上对如何加强金融监管以促进我国网络金融的健康发展提出了积极的对策建议。     

论英语语言课程设计中的需求分析

界定需求要从目标和目的两个方面进行,这两个方面是我们发展测试、材料、教学活动、评价策略的基础。因此需求分析是语言课程建设不可分割的一部分。本文重点介绍了英语语言课程设计中需求分析的方法及步骤。目的在于强调需求分析的重要性,以及需求分析对于教师改进教学方法、提高教学效果、提高学生学习的主动性和积极性的重要意义。     

先进生产力、先进政党与初级阶段国情

生产力内部的矛盾,使生产力有先进与落后之别。中国共产党“始终代表先进生产力的发展要求”这一论断,深化和发展了马克思主义生产力理论,从时间和空间看,生产力的先进性分别具有绝对性和相对性。社会主义初级阶段大国的国情,决定了中国共产党始终代表的是“中国的”“先进的”生产力。