Finding the vulnerable among China’s elderly: identifying measures for effective policy targeting

Facing a rapidly aging population, China has recently started to formulate and implement policies with the aim to provide old-age care. While well-developed old-age care policies commonly include a built-in component that assesses eligibility based on vulnerability, no such process is established in the context of China. Here, based on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study collected in both 2011 and 2013, we (a) developed a simple and effective strategy for identifying vulnerable Chinese elderly, which can serve as a basis for policy targeting, and (b) improved the policy relevance and targeting efficiency of this vulnerability measure by including additional health indicators. Our vulnerability measures identify 35% to 46% of Chinese elderly as vulnerable, covering up to 67% of elderly at high risk of death or functional decline. They can serve as an initial screening step for more comprehensive geriatric assessments and enable policy makers to effectively target vulnerable elderly persons in China.     

"指标困局":农村贫困治理的实践与反思

在国家的扶贫实践中,地方政府的行为策略是影响扶贫绩效的关键变量。通过对精准扶贫政策实践的调研发现,中央政府不断升级的治理手段为重构央地关系创造了条件,地方政府对国家扶贫理念转型认知的偏差以及在形成路径依赖之后的策略行为不仅容易产生对总体局势的误判,还为后期的政策困局埋下了伏笔。在此背景下,地方扶贫工作遭遇“指标困局”,即地方政府很难实事求是去识别贫困户,只能在既有的指标约束下进行精准识别,扶贫工作陷入了反复识别,却仍难实现精准的怪圈。     

Robust bootstrap forecast densities for GARCH returns and volatilities

Bootstrap procedures are useful to obtain forecast densities for both returns and volatilities in the context of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. In this paper, we analyse the effect of additive outliers on the finite sample properties of these bootstrap densities and show that, when obtained using maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters and standard filters for the volatilities, they are badly affected with dramatic consequences on the estimation of Value-at-Risk. We propose constructing bootstrap densities for returns and volatilities using a robust parameter estimator based on variance targeting implemented together with an adequate modification of the volatility filter. We show that the performance of the proposed procedure is adequate when compared with available robust alternatives. The results are illustrated with both simulated and real data.     

A New Model of Trend Inflation

This article introduces a new model of trend inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation, we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model. This article has supplementary materials online.     

Macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting in European and Asian emerging economies

The macroeconomic performance resulting from adopting an inflation targeting policy in emerging economies of Europe and Central Asia are examined. The research includes 26 countries in the period 1997–2019, with a special focus on the period 2008–2019. Our econometric analysis consists of two approaches: dynamic panel modeling and propensity score matching. The results suggest that macroeconomic performance has improved due to the inflation targeting monetary framework. We find that a policy of inflation targeting has been effective in reducing the inflation rate, inflation volatility, and GDP volatility. The results are particularly robust for the subperiod that started in 2008. Econometric results suggest that inflation targeting policy did not affect inflation persistence or GDP growth. Our results suggest that inflation targeting improves the macroeconomic performance of developing countries even when they only partially meet the standard requirements for its implementation.     

扶贫瞄准中贫困户竞争与协同行为的演化博弈分析

扶贫瞄准过程是贫困户采取竞争和协同行为不断进行博弈的过程。行为演化的结果取决于两类贫困户扶贫协同收益和协同成本的对比关系,只有当协同收益都大于协同成本时,博弈才会向两者都选择协同行为的方向演化。协同收益及其分享系数、协同成本及其分担系数是影响贫困户行为演化路径的关键因素,政府的财政补贴能够改变贫困户的策略选择,并存在一个最佳的补贴临界点,使贫困户都选择协同行为。政府应该采取相应措施,促进博弈向协同方向演化。     

Credibility and Inflation Expectations: What we can tell from seven emerging economies?

This study is a contribution to the literature concerning credibility and its effect on the distribution between forward-looking behavior and backward-looking behavior for formation of inflation expectations in the case of emerging economies. Based on data gathered from seven inflation targeting emerging economies (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, and Turkey), this paper analyzes how much the credibility associated with the inflation target contributes to anchoring expectations. The findings denote that although credibility is relevant to reduce inflation expectations, these countries present low monetary credibility and thus the backward-looking behavior is predominant for the formation of inflation expectations. Therefore, in order to improve the expectations channel of monetary policy in emerging economies, a policy of increasing transparency regarding inflation expectations is mandatory to the central banks’ task of anchoring inflation expectations.     

农户可持续生计资本与精准扶贫

建构农户可持续生计资本评价体系,采用熵权法测算了陕西省长武县巨家镇339个农户生计资本,并借助莫兰指数分析了调查区村级户均生计资本的空间聚集特征。发现：调查区农户社会资本、金融资本、人力资本相对重要性突出,物质资本相对重要性最低;农户生计资本得分整体偏低,特别是物质资本、自然资本已是当地农户生计改善的短板;人力资本是户际生计不平等的重要来源;村级户均生计资本存在空间自相关,其中人力资本存在统计上显著的正相关性,自然资本、物质资本、金融资本存在统计上不显著的正自相关性,社会资本则存在统计上不显著的负自相关性。因此,针对农户层面的扶贫要优先实施以非农技能培训为代表的人力资本投资;针对村级层面的扶贫必须综合考虑五种生计资本存量及其空间异分特征。     

混沌经济系统的控制优化

首先对经济混沌控制研究的现状进行了简要评述。以Bowly有限理性生产决策模型为例,从模型的动态复杂性演化机理、系统表现指标的提出与评价分析、不稳定不动点的打靶控制等方面进行了全面研究。提出了混沌经济系统的分岔控制思想及实现途径。研究表明,建立在对历史信息充分考量基础上的企业决策能够提高系统的稳定性。最后,对模型的拓展作了初步分析。     

广告目标对广告运作的策略性指导

建立广告目标不仅为广告运作提出了任务,而且对广告策略的形成作了规定和指导。广告目标的建立作为广告运作的一个关键环节,首先是为了保证广告策略的形成,因此,广告目标不仅需要定量,同时也需要定性,这样它才可能对广告策划形成指导和调控,并且对广告传播效果给予完整的说明。