Blinded continuous monitoring in clinical trials with recurrent event endpoints

In studies with recurrent event endpoints, misspecified assumptions of event rates or dispersion can lead to underpowered trials or overexposure of patients. Specification of overdispersion is often a particular problem as it is usually not reported in clinical trial publications. Changing event rates over the years have been described for some diseases, adding to the uncertainty in planning. To mitigate the risks of inadequate sample sizes, internal pilot study designs have been proposed with a preference for blinded sample size reestimation procedures, as they generally do not affect the type I error rate and maintain trial integrity. Blinded sample size reestimation procedures are available for trials with recurrent events as endpoints. However, the variance in the reestimated sample size can be considerable in particular with early sample size reviews. Motivated by a randomized controlled trial in paediatric multiple sclerosis, a rare neurological condition in children, we apply the concept of blinded continuous monitoring of information, which is known to reduce the variance in the resulting sample size. Assuming negative binomial distributions for the counts of recurrent relapses, we derive information criteria and propose blinded continuous monitoring procedures. The operating characteristics of these are assessed in Monte Carlo trial simulations demonstrating favourable properties with regard to type I error rate, power, and stopping time, ie, sample size.     

1000VMOSFET用常规低压工艺的实现

采用常规低压集成电路工艺实现了耐压达１０００Ｖ的高压横向ＭＯＳＦＥＴ，详细介绍了该高压横向ＭＯＳＦＥＴ的设计方法、器件结构、工艺技术及测试结果。文中从实验和分析的角度上首次探讨了覆盖在漂移区上面的金属栅长度对该高压横向ＭＯＳＦＴ击穿电压的影响。     

考虑多种安全库存策略的选址-库存问题研究

考虑多种安全设置策略的物流网络的选址-库存问题,不仅是选址、订货、运输和库存的集成优化,还需要考虑多种不同的安全库存设置和转运策略。因此,本文深入讨论了二级物流网络中的六种安全库存设置策略,构建了六种考虑不同安全库存设置的选址-库存模型。在考虑集中设置安全库存时,集中安全库存需要通过转载运输实现,因此需要将转载运输成本引入选址-库存模型之中,使新的选址-库存模型更加科学合理。另外,针对六种新的选址-库存模型,提出了基于个体成本差异分配的遗传算法,迭代搜索选址、分配、库存设置策略的优化组合。最后,通过数据实验验证了模型的有效性：（1）安全库存与转载运输之间存在此消彼长的背反关系;（2）安全库存设置和转载运输策略对总成本的影响取决于两种费率权重情况。本文的研究可以为二级物流网络的选址、订货和安全库存策略集成优化决策提供参考依据。     

Healthy Barbs: Activism Confronts Mortality

Barbara Brenner, JD, was the Executive Director of Breast Cancer Action (BCA) from 1995–2010. Before that, she was a longtime activist in the anti-war movement and an attorney who, for most of her career, practiced public policy law. After she was diagnosed with breast cancer in 1993 at the age of 41, she took the helm of BCA. Under her leadership, the organization moved into a position of national advocacy—demanding research on the causes and prevention of breast cancer, including the role of industrial pollutants. Barbara started the “Think Before You Pink” campaign, encouraging people to question whether companies that display pink ribbons actually produce products that harm women's health or generate any funds to fight breast cancer. Her blog, “Healthy Barbs,” challenged readers to critique routine healthcare practices and policies. Barbara received numerous awards, including a Jefferson Award for Public Service in 2007, the Smith College Medal in 2012, and the ACLU-Northern California's Lola Hanzel Courageous Advocacy Award in 2012. Barbara had a recurrence of breast cancer in 1996. She died of complications associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, ALS, on May 10, 2013.     

Benefits of Hybrid Lateral Transshipments in Multi‐Item Inventory Systems under Periodic Replenishment

Lateral transshipments are a method of responding to shortages of stock in a network of inventory‐holding locations. Conventional reactive approaches only seek to meet immediate shortages. The study proposes hybrid transshipments which exploit economies of scale by moving additional stock between locations to prevent future shortages in addition to meeting immediate ones. The setting considered is motivated by retailers who operate networks of outlets supplying car parts via a system of periodic replenishment. It is novel in allowing non‐stationary stochastic demand and general patterns of dependence between multiple item types. The generality of our work makes it widely applicable. We develop an easy‐to‐compute quasi‐myopic heuristic for determining how hybrid transshipments should be made. We obtain simple characterizations of the heuristic and demonstrate its strong cost performance in both small and large networks in an extensive numerical study.     

轮对蛇行波长对铁路钢板梁桥横向振动的影响

针对我国铁路货车提速过程中出现的铁路上承钢板梁横向振幅严重超限现象，以轮对随机人工蛇行波为激励，就不同的蛇行波长对铁路钢板梁桥横向振动的影响进行了探讨。结果表明，在同一速度下，桥梁发生的横向振动位移与轮对的蛇行波波长有关，当轮对的蛇形波波长在7～10m范围内并且激振频率（即行车速度与蛇行波长的比值）与桥梁横向有载自振频率接近时．桥梁横向位移达到最大。     

双液注浆锚管加固在渗水软弱围岩浅埋偏压隧道中的应用

通过乌坑坝隧道北京端左线冲沟地段的施工实例，介绍渗水软弱围岩浅埋偏压隧道地表双液注浆锚管加固的施工方法，并对加固效果及其优缺点进行分析．     

Modeling time series data with semi-reflective boundaries

Time series data are increasingly common in many areas of the health sciences, and in some instances, may have natural boundaries serving as performance guidelines or as thresholds associated with adverse outcomes. Such boundaries may be labeled as semi-reflective, in that the time series values have an increased chance of returning towards middle levels as the boundaries are approached, but boundaries can still be breached. In this paper we review a model that was previously proposed for such data and we investigate its statistical properties. Specifically, this model consists of a third-order auto-regressive projection component, parameterized as a constrained linear combination of linear, flat, and quadratic trends, and an error term that uses a logistic regression model for its sign. We describe and compare a previously-proposed estimation method with a modified version thereof, using computer simulations, as well as data examples from heart monitoring and from a driving simulator. We find that the two methods tend to give different results, with the modified technique having lower bias and more accurate confidence intervals than the previously-proposed method.     

英汉部分辅音在音位分布上的差异

就我国学生在学习英语时易与汉语混淆的几对辅音进行了英汉对比研究 ,首先将英语中的三对爆破音同汉语中相对应的音进行对比 ,其次是英语半元音 [w]与汉语声母W的对比 ,最后是英语边音 [l]和汉语舌尖边音 [l]的对比。     

以转变发展方式为导向的粮食产业链优化研究

粮食产业发展方式转变的核心是对整个粮食产业链进行优化与整合。中国粮食产业链存在的突出问题是：各环节的连接效应较弱,加工业整体实力不强,产供销各环节的组织化程度差异大,产业链条短,粮食物流体系建设滞后。粮食产业链优化的重点是通过整合相关要素,使产业链结构更加合理有效,产业内各环节之间的衔接更加紧密协调。实现优化的3个机制：纵向延伸优化机制、横向扩张优化机制和侧向拓展优化机制。