论民办教育的体制改革

《中国民办教育促进法》正式审议通过后,由此引发的教育体制滞后现象亟待解决。如何体现该法律中的“尊重”与“公平”意味,如何尽早地使民办学校享受与公立学校同样的“国民待遇”,是包括整个教育界在内的全社会应当极力关注并力促改革的问题。     

Bootstrapping Periodic State-Space Models

This article is concerned with how the bootstrap can be applied to study conditional forecast error distributions and construct prediction regions for future observations in periodic time-varying state-space models. We derive, first, an algorithm for assessing the precision of quasi-maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. As a result, the derived algorithm is exploited for numerically evaluating the conditional forecast accuracy of a periodic time series model expressed in state space form. We propose a method which requires the backward, or reverse-time, representation of the model for assessing conditional forecast errors. Finally, the small sample properties of the proposed procedures will be investigated by some simulation studies. Furthermore, we illustrate the results by applying the proposed method to a real time series.     

Anticipated Backward Stochastic Differential Equation with Reflection

In this article, we deal with anticipated backward stochastic differential equation with reflecting boundary. The existence and uniqueness of solution is obtained for equation with Lipschitz and non-Lipschitz generator.     

民生工程建设综合评价研究

民生问题是构建和谐社会的关键,也是政府工作的基本着力点。在前期研究构建的指标体系的基础上,运用拉开档次评价法和逐层序关系分析法对我国31个省市自2006－2012年的民生工程建设状况进行了动态综合评价,并用时序几何平均算子（TOWGA）进行了二次加权得到综合评价的总排名,最后对各地区的排序变化进行归纳、分析。     

A reconstruction of the size and composition of Jewish Holocaust survivors in the Netherlands, 1945

Compared to other countries that have suffered from the Nazioccupation, the destructive impact of the Holocaust on theJewish population has been particularly strong in the Netherlands. This paper gives a demographicreconstruction of the Jewish population in the Netherlands by the end of the war (1945),disaggregated by age and sex. The reconstruction is based on two approaches: a forwardprojection 1941–1945, starting from registration data supplemented by information onHolocaust losses; and a backward projection 1966–1945, starting from an enumerationof Halachic Jews carried out in 1966. The two approaches yieldtwo estimates that are comfortingly similar.     

逐步生物等效性t检验及在药物效能评价中的应用

在医学领域中,一种新药投产前,必须确定给人服用的安全剂量和它的毒性大小;有时又需要对两种药的药效进行比较。用均值等效二次单侧检验方法,并对其逐步推广,从而对处理组与对照组进行检验,确定是否等效。逐步等效性t检验也可用在确定仿制药的食用安全区间、比较药效等等。     

Backward Induction Is Not Robust: The Parity Problem and the Uncertainty Problem

A cornerstone of game theory is backward induction, whereby players reason backward from the end of a game in extensive form to the beginning in order to determine what choices are rational at each stage of play. Truels, or three-person duels, are used to illustrate how the outcome can depend on (1) the evenness/oddness of the number of rounds (the parity problem) and (2) uncertainty about the endpoint of the game (the uncertainty problem). Since there is no known endpoint in the latter case, an extension of the idea of backward induction is used to determine the possible outcomes. The parity problem highlights the lack of robustness of backward induction, but it poses no conflict between foundational principles. On the other hand, two conflicting views of the future underlie the uncertainty problem, depending on whether the number of rounds is bounded (the players invariably shoot from the start) or unbounded (they may all cooperate and never shoot, despite the fact that the truel will end with certainty and therefore be effectively bounded). Some real-life examples, in which destructive behavior sometimes occurred and sometimes did not, are used to illustrate these differences, and some ethical implications of the analysis are discussed.     

A stepwise approach for the purely periodic interaction spline model

The basic idea of an interaction spline model was presented in Barry (1983). The general interaction spline models were proposed by Wahba (1986). The purely periodic spline model, a special case of the general interaction spline models, is considered in this paper. A stepwise approach using generalized cross validation (GCV) for fitting the model is proposed. Based on the nice orthogonality properties of the purely periodic functions, the stepwise approach is a promising method for the interaction spline model. The approach can also be generalized to the non-purely-periodic spline models. But this is no done here.     

酶催化乙酰基转移反应的密度泛函研究(Ⅱ)

用密度泛函方法的B3LYP在6-31 g(d,p)基组水平上,研究了底物对-氨基苯甲酸与芳基胺-N-乙酰基转移酶之间的乙酰化反应.该反应共有两种可能的反应机理:协同反应和分步反应.计算结果表明,协同反应机制在竞争中占优势,是势能面上的最低能量反应通道.     

Recursive procedures for multiple decisions: finite time memory and stepwise maximum likelihood procedure

A version of the multiple decsion problem is studied in which the procedure is based only on the current observation and the previous decision. A necessary and sufficient condition for inconsistency of the stepwise maximum likelihood procedure is shown to be the boundedness of the likelihood ratios. In the case of consistency the (typically slow) rate of convergence to zero of the error probabilities is determined.