全文获取类型
收费全文 | 3337篇 |
免费 | 135篇 |
国内免费 | 14篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 317篇 |
民族学 | 3篇 |
人口学 | 32篇 |
丛书文集 | 45篇 |
理论方法论 | 63篇 |
综合类 | 323篇 |
社会学 | 69篇 |
统计学 | 2634篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 2篇 |
2023年 | 40篇 |
2022年 | 46篇 |
2021年 | 52篇 |
2020年 | 67篇 |
2019年 | 124篇 |
2018年 | 145篇 |
2017年 | 258篇 |
2016年 | 118篇 |
2015年 | 111篇 |
2014年 | 158篇 |
2013年 | 753篇 |
2012年 | 264篇 |
2011年 | 130篇 |
2010年 | 119篇 |
2009年 | 124篇 |
2008年 | 102篇 |
2007年 | 112篇 |
2006年 | 107篇 |
2005年 | 93篇 |
2004年 | 95篇 |
2003年 | 62篇 |
2002年 | 52篇 |
2001年 | 53篇 |
2000年 | 47篇 |
1999年 | 50篇 |
1998年 | 40篇 |
1997年 | 29篇 |
1996年 | 9篇 |
1995年 | 13篇 |
1994年 | 16篇 |
1993年 | 13篇 |
1992年 | 15篇 |
1991年 | 16篇 |
1990年 | 5篇 |
1989年 | 5篇 |
1988年 | 8篇 |
1987年 | 3篇 |
1986年 | 5篇 |
1985年 | 5篇 |
1984年 | 2篇 |
1983年 | 3篇 |
1982年 | 7篇 |
1981年 | 1篇 |
1980年 | 2篇 |
1979年 | 1篇 |
1977年 | 1篇 |
1976年 | 1篇 |
1975年 | 2篇 |
排序方式: 共有3486条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
In studies with recurrent event endpoints, misspecified assumptions of event rates or dispersion can lead to underpowered trials or overexposure of patients. Specification of overdispersion is often a particular problem as it is usually not reported in clinical trial publications. Changing event rates over the years have been described for some diseases, adding to the uncertainty in planning. To mitigate the risks of inadequate sample sizes, internal pilot study designs have been proposed with a preference for blinded sample size reestimation procedures, as they generally do not affect the type I error rate and maintain trial integrity. Blinded sample size reestimation procedures are available for trials with recurrent events as endpoints. However, the variance in the reestimated sample size can be considerable in particular with early sample size reviews. Motivated by a randomized controlled trial in paediatric multiple sclerosis, a rare neurological condition in children, we apply the concept of blinded continuous monitoring of information, which is known to reduce the variance in the resulting sample size. Assuming negative binomial distributions for the counts of recurrent relapses, we derive information criteria and propose blinded continuous monitoring procedures. The operating characteristics of these are assessed in Monte Carlo trial simulations demonstrating favourable properties with regard to type I error rate, power, and stopping time, ie, sample size. 相似文献
2.
Modeling spatial overdispersion requires point process models with finite‐dimensional distributions that are overdisperse relative to the Poisson distribution. Fitting such models usually heavily relies on the properties of stationarity, ergodicity, and orderliness. In addition, although processes based on negative binomial finite‐dimensional distributions have been widely considered, they typically fail to simultaneously satisfy the three required properties for fitting. Indeed, it has been conjectured by Diggle and Milne that no negative binomial model can satisfy all three properties. In light of this, we change perspective and construct a new process based on a different overdisperse count model, namely, the generalized Waring (GW) distribution. While comparably tractable and flexible to negative binomial processes, the GW process is shown to possess all required properties and additionally span the negative binomial and Poisson processes as limiting cases. In this sense, the GW process provides an approximate resolution to the conundrum highlighted by Diggle and Milne. 相似文献
3.
Stephen J. Ruberg Frank E. Harrell Jr. Margaret Gamalo-Siebers Lisa LaVange J. Jack Lee Karen Price 《The American statistician》2019,73(1):319-327
ABSTRACTThe cost and time of pharmaceutical drug development continue to grow at rates that many say are unsustainable. These trends have enormous impact on what treatments get to patients, when they get them and how they are used. The statistical framework for supporting decisions in regulated clinical development of new medicines has followed a traditional path of frequentist methodology. Trials using hypothesis tests of “no treatment effect” are done routinely, and the p-value < 0.05 is often the determinant of what constitutes a “successful” trial. Many drugs fail in clinical development, adding to the cost of new medicines, and some evidence points blame at the deficiencies of the frequentist paradigm. An unknown number effective medicines may have been abandoned because trials were declared “unsuccessful” due to a p-value exceeding 0.05. Recently, the Bayesian paradigm has shown utility in the clinical drug development process for its probability-based inference. We argue for a Bayesian approach that employs data from other trials as a “prior” for Phase 3 trials so that synthesized evidence across trials can be utilized to compute probability statements that are valuable for understanding the magnitude of treatment effect. Such a Bayesian paradigm provides a promising framework for improving statistical inference and regulatory decision making. 相似文献
4.
A. M. Abd El-Raheem 《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2019,89(16):3075-3104
The generalized half-normal (GHN) distribution and progressive type-II censoring are considered in this article for studying some statistical inferences of constant-stress accelerated life testing. The EM algorithm is considered to calculate the maximum likelihood estimates. Fisher information matrix is formed depending on the missing information law and it is utilized for structuring the asymptomatic confidence intervals. Further, interval estimation is discussed through bootstrap intervals. The Tierney and Kadane method, importance sampling procedure and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm are utilized to compute Bayesian estimates. Furthermore, predictive estimates for censored data and the related prediction intervals are obtained. We consider three optimality criteria to find out the optimal stress level. A real data set is used to illustrate the importance of GHN distribution as an alternative lifetime model for well-known distributions. Finally, a simulation study is provided with discussion. 相似文献
5.
We study the asymptotic behavior of the marginal expected shortfall when the two random variables are asymptotic independent but positively associated, which is modeled by the so-called tail dependent coefficient. We construct an estimator of the marginal expected shortfall, which is shown to be asymptotically normal. The finite sample performance of the estimator is investigated in a small simulation study. The method is also applied to estimate the expected amount of rainfall at a weather station given that there is a once every 100 years rainfall at another weather station nearby. 相似文献
6.
Keisuke Himoto 《Risk analysis》2020,40(6):1124-1138
Post-earthquake fires are high-consequence events with extensive damage potential. They are also low-frequency events, so their nature remains underinvestigated. One difficulty in modeling post-earthquake ignition probabilities is reducing the model uncertainty attributed to the scarce source data. The data scarcity problem has been resolved by pooling the data indiscriminately collected from multiple earthquakes. However, this approach neglects the inter-earthquake heterogeneity in the regional and seasonal characteristics, which is indispensable for risk assessment of future post-earthquake fires. Thus, the present study analyzes the post-earthquake ignition probabilities of five major earthquakes in Japan from 1995 to 2016 (1995 Kobe, 2003 Tokachi-oki, 2004 Niigata–Chuetsu, 2011 Tohoku, and 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes) by a hierarchical Bayesian approach. As the ignition causes of earthquakes share a certain commonality, common prior distributions were assigned to the parameters, and samples were drawn from the target posterior distribution of the parameters by a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the hierarchical model were comparatively analyzed with those of pooled and independent models. Although the pooled and hierarchical models were both robust in comparison with the independent model, the pooled model underestimated the ignition probabilities of earthquakes with few data samples. Among the tested models, the hierarchical model was least affected by the source-to-source variability in the data. The heterogeneity of post-earthquake ignitions with different regional and seasonal characteristics has long been desired in the modeling of post-earthquake ignition probabilities but has not been properly considered in the existing approaches. The presented hierarchical Bayesian approach provides a systematic and rational framework to effectively cope with this problem, which consequently enhances the statistical reliability and stability of estimating post-earthquake ignition probabilities. 相似文献
7.
Multiparameter evidence synthesis in epidemiology and medical decision-making: current approaches 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A. E. Ades A. J. Sutton 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》2006,169(1):5-35
Summary. Alongside the development of meta-analysis as a tool for summarizing research literature, there is renewed interest in broader forms of quantitative synthesis that are aimed at combining evidence from different study designs or evidence on multiple parameters. These have been proposed under various headings: the confidence profile method, cross-design synthesis, hierarchical models and generalized evidence synthesis. Models that are used in health technology assessment are also referred to as representing a synthesis of evidence in a mathematical structure. Here we review alternative approaches to statistical evidence synthesis, and their implications for epidemiology and medical decision-making. The methods include hierarchical models, models informed by evidence on different functions of several parameters and models incorporating both of these features. The need to check for consistency of evidence when using these powerful methods is emphasized. We develop a rationale for evidence synthesis that is based on Bayesian decision modelling and expected value of information theory, which stresses not only the need for a lack of bias in estimates of treatment effects but also a lack of bias in assessments of uncertainty. The increasing reliance of governmental bodies like the UK National Institute for Clinical Excellence on complex evidence synthesis in decision modelling is discussed. 相似文献
8.
Let ( Xk ) k be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables taking values in a set , and consider the problem of estimating the law of X1 in a Bayesian framework. We prove, under mild conditions on the prior, that the sequence of posterior distributions satisfies a moderate deviation principle. 相似文献
9.
Carmen Fernández Eduardo Ley Mark F. J. Steel 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》2002,51(3):257-280
Summary. We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a number of ship characteristics (such as the size of the ship, the fishing technique used and the mesh size of the nets) are obvious candidates, but one can also consider the season or the actual location of the catch. Our database leads to 28 possible regressors (arising from six continuous variables and four categorical variables, whose 22 levels are treated separately), resulting in a set of 177 million possible linear regression models for the log-catch. Zero observations are modelled separately through a probit model. Inference is based on Bayesian model averaging, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Particular attention is paid to the prediction of catches for single and aggregated ships. 相似文献
10.
Estimated associations between an outcome variable and misclassified covariates tend to be biased when the methods of estimation that ignore the classification error are applied. Available methods to account for misclassification often require the use of a validation sample (i.e. a gold standard). In practice, however, such a gold standard may be unavailable or impractical. We propose a Bayesian approach to adjust for misclassification in a binary covariate in the random effect logistic model when a gold standard is not available. This Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach uses two imperfect measures of a dichotomous exposure under the assumptions of conditional independence and non-differential misclassification. A simulated numerical example and a real clinical example are given to illustrate the proposed approach. Our results suggest that the estimated log odds of inpatient care and the corresponding standard deviation are much larger in our proposed method compared with the models ignoring misclassification. Ignoring misclassification produces downwardly biased estimates and underestimate uncertainty. 相似文献