Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

Social network and content analysis of the North American Carbon Program as a scientific community of practice

The North American Carbon Program (NACP) was formed to further the scientific understanding of sources, sinks, and stocks of carbon in Earth's environment. Carbon cycle science integrates multidisciplinary research, providing decision-support information for managing climate and carbon-related change across multiple sectors of society. This investigation uses the conceptual framework of communities of practice (CoP) to explore the role that the NACP has played in connecting researchers into a carbon cycle knowledge network, and in enabling them to conduct physical science that includes ideas from social science. A CoP describes the communities formed when people consistently engage in shared communication and activities toward a common passion or learning goal. We apply the CoP model by using keyword analysis of abstracts from scientific publications to analyze the research outputs of the NACP in terms of its knowledge domain. We also construct a co-authorship network from the publications of core NACP members, describe the structure and social pathways within the community. Results of the content analysis indicate that the NACP community of practice has substantially expanded its research on human and social impacts on the carbon cycle, contributing to a better understanding of how human and physical processes interact with one another. Results of the co-authorship social network analysis demonstrate that the NACP has formed a tightly connected community with many social pathways through which knowledge may flow, and that it has also expanded its network of institutions involved in carbon cycle research over the past seven years.     

环境信息披露的污染减排效应评估

本文利用我国2008年正式实施环境信息披露制度这一外生冲击构造准自然实验,基于2004-2017年我国285个城市的面板数据,通过双重差分法系统评估环境信息披露对工业污染物排放的影响。克服环境信息披露的测量困难与内生性问题,首次考察环境信息披露的污染减排效果,并借助数理模型对其影响机制进行规范阐释。研究发现,环境信息披露能够显著降低工业污染物排放水平,且该影响具有一定的时滞性和长期性;同时,减排作用会随地区环境污染程度和环境规制力度的增强而呈现递增规律;此外,机制分析的结果表明,其传导机制主要来自于产业结构转型和减排技术进步。为验证研究结论的稳健性,本文提供了平行趋势、工具变量、安慰剂等多种方法的检验结果。本文的研究在经验上丰富了环境信息披露与环境污染治理之间关系的相关讨论,为提升我国环境污染治理水平、打赢污染防治攻坚战提供有益的政策启示。     

Relationship management through social media influencers: Effects of followers’ awareness of paid endorsement

This study aimed to examine the effects of awareness of paid endorsements by social media influencers on followers’ cognitive persuasion knowledge (ad recognition), attitudinal persuasion knowledge (relationships with the influencer), and behavioral intentions, specifically eWOM intention and purchase intention. Employing an online survey (N = 269), this study found that awareness of paid endorsement relates to ad recognition, which is correlated with purchase and eWOM intentions. We also found that awareness of paid endorsement is correlated with influencer-follower relationship, which is associated with purchase and eWOM intentions. However, ad recognition does not affect influencer-follower relationship. Implications for public relations theory, practice, and policy are discussed.     

Developing spatial inequalities in carbon appropriation: A sociological analysis of changing local emissions across the United States

This study examines an overlooked dynamic in sociological research on greenhouse gas emissions: how local areas appropriate the global carbon cycle for use and exchange purposes as they develop. Drawing on theories of place and space, we hypothesize that development differentially drives and spatially decouples use- and exchange-oriented emissions at the local level. To test our hypotheses, we integrate longitudinal, county-level data on residential and industrial emissions from the Vulcan Project with demographic, economic and environmental data from the U.S. Census Bureau and National Land Change Database. Results from spatial regression models with two-way fixed-effects indicate that alongside innovations and efficiencies capable of reducing environmentally harmful effects of development comes a spatial disarticulation between carbon-intensive production and consumption within as well as across societies. Implications for existing theory, methods and policy are discussed.     

上海生态文明建设的激励和约束机制研究

生态文明建设是一项系统工程,需要通过整体推进,构筑规划、建设、管理、技术、产业、社会和合作协同发展的综合体系。未来上海应以建立和完善市场机制为核心,以法律机制为前提,以政府监管机制为保障,以能力建设机制为基础,以社会参与机制为监督,按照"引逼结合、多方合力、突出重点、先行先试"的原则,加快上海生态文明建设机制创新。主要途径有:完善碳排放交易试点,建立长效市场机制;推进分布式能源应用,提高清洁能源比重;加快新能源汽车推广,优化交通能源结构;培育发展再制造产业,推广先进制造理念。     

碳强度目标:演进、理由与实现

碳强度目标是关于未来要达到的温室气体排放强度的国家承诺。研究碳强度目标对于认识和实现中国气候承诺具有重要意义。严格性、约束力和覆盖范围是碳强度目标的关键要素。碳强度目标具有坚实的理论基础和深刻的现实背景,至少具有与温室气体数量目标同等重要的地位。降低碳强度需要降低温室气体的边际弹性或国民生产总值的边际碳强度,需要将国家碳强度目标分解到行业和企业,还要建立碳排放交易制度。     

民主、信息公开与国家治理模式的变迁

在很长一段历史时间内,信息公开与民主制度并无关联,因为"精英民主"模式通常与保密文化密切相关,它既不鼓励公民参与,也不希望公民知悉政府的信息。直到参与式民主在近几十年取得主流话语权,信息公开才与公共参与一道成为民主制度不可或缺的组成部分。中国《政府信息公开条例》的实施,不仅有利于国家治理模式的转变,而且未来必将有助于民主的发展。     

A hybrid approach to configure eco-efficient supply chains under consideration of performance and risk aspects

Formal models that support multi-criteria decision making represent a strongly growing area in sustainable supply chain management research. However, uncertainties and risks are seldom considered in quantitative models for green supply chain (SC) design. The paper at hand suggests a hybrid approach to configure an eco-efficient SC for a new product under consideration of economic and environmental risks. Discrete-event simulation is applied to assess the financial, operational and environmental performance of different SC configuration options while the value-at-risk concept is adapted to evaluate related SC risks. The analytic hierarchy process is employed to solve the resulting multi-criteria decision problem of choosing the best option. The approach is illustrated at a case example of a fast moving consumer goods manufacturer.     

Spillover Effects of Carbon Footprint Labelling on Less Developed Countries: The Example of the East Asia Summit Region

The spillover effects of carbon footprint (CFP) labelling are particularly significant in the East Asia Summit (EAS) region which has closely integrated production networks, wide development gaps and predominantly small and medium‐sized enterprises. Poor management of the effects would undermine not only the effectiveness of CFP labelling, but also EAS efforts towards economic integration and the narrowing of development gaps. Well‐designed labelling schemes, accessible and affordable data and transparent certification processes are essential, as well as capacity‐building and engagement of non‐labelling countries, in particular LDCs.