Design selection for strong orthogonal arrays

Strong orthogonal arrays (SOAs) were recently introduced and studied as a class of space‐filling designs for computer experiments. An important problem that has not been addressed in the literature is that of design selection for such arrays. In this article, we conduct a systematic investigation into this problem, and we focus on the most useful SOA(n,m,4,2 + )s and SOA(n,m,4,2)s. This article first addresses the problem of design selection for SOAs of strength 2+ by examining their three‐dimensional projections. Both theoretical and computational results are presented. When SOAs of strength 2+ do not exist, we formulate a general framework for the selection of SOAs of strength 2 by looking at their two‐dimensional projections. The approach is fruitful, as it is applicable when SOAs of strength 2+ do not exist and it gives rise to them when they do. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 302–314; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

The context of employment discrimination: interpreting the findings of a field experiment

Although field experiments have documented the contemporary relevance of discrimination in employment, theories developed to explain the dynamics of differential treatment cannot account for differences across organizational and institutional contexts. In this article, I address this shortcoming by presenting the main empirical findings from a multi‐method research project, in which a field experiment of ethnic discrimination in the Norwegian labour market was complemented with forty‐two in‐depth interviews with employers who were observed in the first stage of the study. While the experimental data support earlier findings in documenting that ethnic discrimination indeed takes place, the qualitative material suggests that theorizing in the field experiment literature have been too concerned with individual and intra‐psychic explanations. Discriminatory outcomes in employment processes seems to be more dependent on contextual factors such as the number of applications received, whether requirements are specified, and the degree to which recruitment procedures are formalized. I argue that different contexts of employment provide different opportunity structures for discrimination, a finding with important theoretical and methodological implications.     

Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment

Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.     

The Myth of the Computer Hacker

The seriousness of computer hacking is not exaggerated, it is far worse than that. The computer hacker has attained the status of myth; society associates all computer crime with a mythical perpetrator that bears no resemblance to reality. This paper will argue that in the early stages of the myth the computer hacker was regarded as a highly skilled but mentally disturbed youth who has an unhealthy association with computers. The new reality of electronic commerce resulted in pressures that culminated in the computer hacker becoming regarded as a dangerous criminal. A thorough analysis of the statistics will demonstrate that the majority of computer intruders are neither dangerous nor highly skilled, and thus nothing like the mythical hacker.     

ALL-BIAS DESIGNS FOR POLYNOMIAL SPLINE REGRESSION MODELS

Polynomial spline regression models of low degree have proved useful in modeling responses from designed experiments in science and engineering when simple polynomial models are inadequate. Where there is uncertainty in the number and location of the knots, or breakpoints, of the spline, then designs that minimize the systematic errors resulting from model misspecification may be appropriate. This paper gives a method for constructing such all‐bias designs for a single variable spline when the distinct knots in the assumed and true models come from some specified set. A class of designs is defined in terms of the inter‐knot intervals and sufficient conditions are obtained for a design within this class to be all‐bias under linear, quadratic and cubic spline models. An example of the construction of all‐bias designs is given.     

中学化学实验研究选题探讨

中学化学实验研究的关键问题是如何选择研究课题。应从中学化学教学的需要、中学化学实验研究的内容、中学化学实验的发展趋势以及中学化学实验教学改革等方面来选择研究课题。     

关于计算机辅助教学(CAI)的几点思考

计算机辅助教学是传统教学模式的一个根本性变革 ,在高等教育中发挥的作用越来越明显。探讨了在进行计算机辅助教学课件 (CAI)的开发过程中 ,当前普遍存在的问题及其产生的原因 ,同时 ,初步提出了解决这些问题的方法 ,指出 CAI课件应向网络化、智能化方向发展     

Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

开设化学设计性实验的探索与实践

阐述开设设计性实验的意义,并在实践的基础上,给出了开设化学设计性实验的方案,总结了开设设计性实验的体会。     

杭州汽轮机厂计算机集成制造系统——HTW-CIMS

本文介绍了杭州汽轮机厂计算机集成制造系统HTW-CIMS的总体方案以及开发和应用该系统时遵循的技术路线。