Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

相互保险的风险识别及创新解决方案——基于TRIZ和TIF理论

相互保险是保险组织形态中非常重要的一种,但是由于信息不对称,相对于其他保险模式而言,同样存在着逆向选择和道德风险问题。传统的监管模式下,监管渗透不够,反制力不强,导致了相互保险无法彻底解决逆向选择和道德风险的治理困境。本文基于塔福域理论和TRIZ理论系统地分析了相互保险模式中存在的风险,并且提出了创新性的解决方案,即构建“保险域”。     

CELEBRATING HETEROGENEITY?: A survey of female ICT professionals in England

This paper introduces key findings from a large-scale, online survey of women in the ICT industry across England undertaken between October 2004 and October 2005. Placed in a theoretical framework which draws on critical perspectives from within information systems (IS), and the sociology of gender and of technology, the authors examine some of the issues faced by female ICT professionals. The context for this paper is the ongoing under-representation of women in the ICT industry in England, and the difficulties that the industry is having retaining women, particularly at senior levels. Data are presented on the demographic composition of women in the ICT industry in England. In addition the authors focus on their management of domestic and caring responsibilities, including changes in working practices they have experienced as a result of these responsibilities. These data are particularly pertinent given current government and industry debates regarding the 'work-life balance' and 'flexible working' in the ICT industry, partially as a response to the need for a more diverse ICT workforce. Alongside information on the career histories of female ICT professionals, the authors review their perceptions of pay and reward packages, working environments, the skills they hold, and the recognition they may or may not receive in their current posts. They present reports of a 'long-hours' and 'presenteeism' culture in the ICT industry, and the existence of gendered informal networks in ICT. They also examine female ICT professionals' perceptions of the current and future-possible image of the industry. The findings highlight the continued masculinization of ICT work, and some of the difficulties faced by women working in what remain statistically and symbolically male-dominated environments.     

媒介版图与生态意识

倡导媒介的版图与生态意识,是基于当前国内大众传媒迅猛发展的背景,意在强调在共时空状态下,不同类型不同性质的媒介制品,或者不同类型不同定位的媒介机构有机配置与组合,也就是构建一个富有生机的多样性的媒介生态。在很大程度上,媒介是以整体的舍力而非单一的形式对人实施具体的影响,此项倡导的必要性由此可见一斑。媒介的生态与版图意识还可以帮助梳理、调整当前媒介设置与媒介批评中出现的一些新现象新问题,这正是其紧迫性之所在。     

论《统一域名争端解决政策》的若干法律问题

《统一域名争端解决政策》因其时效性、便捷性成为一种国际间广泛接受的庭外域名争端解决机制,同时也为各国的相关立法提供了蓝本。该机制在实践中暴露出一些问题,如政策中的几个关键概念模糊不清,UDRP专家组裁决前后不一致等,为此应当对该政策加以改进。域名争端的根源在于目前的域名注册管理体系与商标的注册管理体系的冲突,要从根本上解决域名争端,必须协调国际域名注册管理体系与国际商标注册管理体系。     

Data tilting for time series

Summary. We develop a general methodology for tilting time series data. Attention is focused on a large class of regression problems, where errors are expressed through autoregressive processes. The class has a range of important applications and in the context of our work may be used to illustrate the application of tilting methods to interval estimation in regression, robust statistical inference and estimation subject to constraints. The method can be viewed as 'empirical likelihood with nuisance parameters'.     

论域名的法律保护

在分析域名的法律特征、法律保护现状的基础上，提出了域名法律保护的三种途径；承认域名权作为民事利益受法律保护的基础保护；肯定域名在一定条件下可以注册为商标的强化保护；对驰名域名提供的特殊法律保护。     

网络法问题的法哲学分析

计算机网络的发展引起了一系列的网络法问题 ,而针对网络法问题的研究目前主要集中在部门法学领域 ,对网络法问题的法哲学探讨还很少。立足于法哲学理论 ,在阐释了法哲学的任务、网络中存在的私人领域和公共领域模糊性表现的基础上 ,提出了网络法问题的本质就在于网络条件下私人领域和公共领域的界限的模糊 ,提出了该模糊性是导致网络条件下自由的边界模糊和权利冲突的根本原因。并在此基础上提出了一些建议性的解决网络法问题的法哲学思路。     

Shrinkage confidence intervals for the normal mean: Using a guess for greater efficiency

If the unknown mean of a univariate population is sufficiently close to the value of an initial guess then an appropriate shrinkage estimator has smaller average squared error than the sample mean. This principle has been known for some time, but it does not appear to have found extension to problems of interval estimation. The author presents valid two‐sided 95% and 99% “shrinkage” confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution. These intervals are narrower than the usual interval based on the Student distribution when the population mean lies in such an “effective interval.” A reduction of 20% in the mean width of the interval is possible when the population mean is sufficiently close to the value of the guess. The author also describes a modification to existing shrinkage point estimators of the general univariate mean that enables the effective interval to be enlarged.     

隐喻应用意识与词汇记忆技巧——关于英语词汇学习方法的创新研究

隐喻是一种复杂的认知现象,同时也是一种非常特殊的语言现象。隐喻意识的提升对帮助学生加强词汇记忆有着重要作用。教学实验表明:很多比喻性用语往往可以追溯到一个共同的喻题或源域,用喻题或源域来对词汇进行归类有助于记忆生疏的比喻性用语。因此,有必要多组织一些旨在提高语言学习者隐喻意识的课堂活动,将隐喻意识变成词汇习得的一个新的渠道。