现代市场经济是信用经济

信用是经济发展的基石 ,为促进我国社会主义市场经济的健康发展 ,必须认清和健全我国的信用体系。     

Estimating rating transition probabilites with missing data

In this article we provide a rigorous treatment of one of the central statistical issues of credit risk management. GivenK-1 rating categories, the rating of a corporate bond over a certain horizon may either stay the same or change to one of the remainingK-2 categories; in addition, it is usually the case that the rating of some bonds is withdrawn during the time interval considered in the analysis. When estimating transition probabilities, we have thus to consider aK-th category, called withdrawal, which contains (partially) missing data. We show how maximum likelihood estimation can be performed in this setup; whereas in discrete time our solution gives rigorous support to a solution often used in applications, in continuous time the maximum likelihood estimator of the transition matrix computed by means of the EM algorithm represents a significant improvement over existing methods.     

網絡組織成員合作的穩定性模型分析

本文應用博弈論建立了一個網絡組織成員合作的穩定性模型,通過模型分析作者提出網絡組織的穩定性依賴於多種因素,其中,信任機制、懲罰機制是網絡組織穩定的基本因素。本文通過對中國網絡組織的一般性分析,指出特殊主義文化背景下的中國網絡組織的信任機制和懲罰機制更多的來源於非正式制度,而非正式制度作用的空間局限性,是導致中國區際網絡組織穩定性差的重要原因,本文最後提出了中國網絡組織穩定性提升的建議。     

民族贫困地区农信社推行农户小额信贷的实证分析

民族贫困地区大力推广以农村信用社为主体,以农户小额信贷为手段的扶贫资金的投入方式对于提高当地农民收入和优化当地农业产业结构意义重大。本文通过实地调研,总结了武陵山区恩施土家族苗族自治州农村信用社开展农户小额信贷的基本做法和成效,指出了目前存在的主要问题并对其原因进行了分析,然后在此基础上对民族贫困地区农信社进一步发展农户小额信贷提出了一些对策建议。     

Imagined interactions,family money management patterns and coalitions,and attitudes toward money and credit

This study explores the imagined interactions college students have with their parents about money and credit, their attitudes toward credit and money, the ways they say their parents deal with financial decisions, and the communication coalitions regarding finances they perceive existing within their family. Students’ imagined interaction pleasantness is greatest when parents jointly form a plan for paying off credit card debt and lowest when parents argue. When family coalitions exist, students report more frequent imagined interactions. Imagined interaction frequency and pleasantness are related to credit and money attitudes.

Macro-Economic Factors in Credit Risk Calculations: Including Time-Varying Covariates in Mixture Cure Models

The prediction of the time of default in a credit risk setting via survival analysis needs to take a high censoring rate into account. This rate is because default does not occur for the majority of debtors. Mixture cure models allow the part of the loan population that is unsusceptible to default to be modeled, distinct from time of default for the susceptible population. In this article, we extend the mixture cure model to include time-varying covariates. We illustrate the method via simulations and by incorporating macro-economic factors as predictors for an actual bank dataset.     

中国资产证券化信用增级的法律环境问题

资产证券化作为一种新的融资方式,在处置不良资产方面具有明显的作用。信用增级是资产证券化的两大核心技术之一,在当前中国信用体系尚不完善的情况下,信用增级显得尤为重要。信用增级包括内部信用增级和外部信用增级,有效实施这两种信用增级方式在现阶段均存在一定的法律障碍。尽快制定专门的资产证券化法,努力完善信用法律环境,才能保证中国资产证券化的顺利实施。     

A constitutional theory of the family

The paper re-examines the idea that a family can be viewed as a community governed by a self-enforcing constitution, and extends existing results in two directions. First, it identifies the circumstances in which a constitution is renegotiation-proof. Second, it introduces parental altruism. The behavioural and policy implications are illustrated by showing the effects of public pensions and credit rationing. These implications are not much affected by whether altruism is assumed or not, but contrast sharply with those of more conventional models.

Coordinating contracts for a financially constrained supply chain

We consider a financially constrained supply chain in which a supplier (leader) sells products to a retailer (follower) who has no access to bank financing due to her low credit rating. However, the supplier can borrow from a bank and offer trade credit to the retailer to alleviate her financial constraint. Failure to pay off a bank loan or trade credit incurs a variable default cost. We analyze the centralized version of the supply chain to obtain new coordination requirements. We then examine whether revenue-sharing, buyback, and all-unit quantity discount contracts can coordinate our supply chain. We show that the all-unit quantity discount contract fails to coordinate. However, the revenue-sharing and buyback contracts can coordinate the supply chain, but only when the supply chain has a sufficient total working capital. Moreover, they cannot allocate profit flexibly unless the supplier has a large enough working capital. Finally, we design a generalized revenue-sharing contract that coordinates the supply chain with flexible profit allocation, and also show by numerical examples its superiority over the revenue-sharing and buyback contracts.