基于最新统计分类标准的数字经济发展水平测度

随着信息技术的发展,数字经济已经成为经济增长的"新引擎"。但由于缺乏权威的产业统计分类标准,学者们一直面临"数字经济研究缺乏数字依据"的尴尬境地。文章基于国家统计局公布并实施的《数字经济及其核心产业统计分类(2021)》中的分类标准,对各省份统计年鉴的数据进行重新整理,利用熵权法构建数字经济发展指数,测度了我国30个省份的数字经济发展水平,分析了各省份数字经济发展的差异以及时空特征。研究发现,2009—2019年我国数字经济产业发展迅猛,各项子产业都取得了长足的进步。相比较而言,数字要素驱动业发展速度略低于其他三个子产业;数字经济发展存在着明显的区域不平衡。东中部地区的数字经济发展状况明显优于西部地区,南方优于北方,而且区域不平衡有持续扩大趋势。     

Rényi entropy of m-generalized order statistics

Abstract

Characterizing relations via Rényi entropy of m-generalized order statistics are considered along with examples and related stochastic orderings. Previous results for common order statistics are included.     

Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.     

Confidence intervals,significance values,maximum likelihood estimates,etc. sharpened into Occam’s razors

Abstract

Confidence sets, p values, maximum likelihood estimates, and other results of non-Bayesian statistical methods may be adjusted to favor sampling distributions that are simple compared to others in the parametric family. The adjustments are derived from a prior likelihood function previously used to adjust posterior distributions.     

变换法在解微分方程中的应用

变量代换法是解常微分方程的一种辅助方法，它能使问题简化．本文通过联系实例给出了变换在求解微分方程中的具体应用。     

从系统的视角看构建社会主义和谐社会

从系统的视角看,构建社会主义和谐社会是一项复杂的系统工程。社会主义和谐社会是一种远离平衡态的稳定有序的社会系统状态,社会和谐的系统评价必须体现系统减熵增序的认识原则,构建社会主义和谐社会就是要建立健全和整合协调各种社会机制,以推动社会系统向更加有序和稳定的方向发展。     

Goodness‐of‐fit methods for matched case‐control studies

The authors propose graphical and numerical methods for checking the adequacy of the logistic regression model for matched case‐control data. Their approach is based on the cumulative sum of residuals over the covariate or linear predictor. Under the assumed model, the cumulative residual process converges weakly to a centered Gaussian limit whose distribution can be approximated via computer simulation. The observed cumulative residual pattern can then be compared both visually and analytically to a certain number of simulated realizations of the approximate limiting process under the null hypothesis. The proposed techniques allow one to check the functional form of each covariate, the logistic link function as well as the overall model adequacy. The authors assess the performance of the proposed methods through simulation studies and illustrate them using data from a cardiovascular study.     

一类四阶非线性常微分方程的两点边值问题解的存在性与唯一性

本文利用Hammerstein型积分算子和上下解方法,研究了一类四阶非线性常微分方程的两点边值问题     

异种自由刑数罪并罚规则研究

异种自由刑数罪并罚是在原有数罪并罚规则基础之上,针对多样化的犯罪现象与司法适用而设置的规则。根据我国现行《刑法》规定的异种自由刑并罚内容,吸收原则与并科原则各自蕴含着合理性依据。然而立足于整体数罪并罚的规则,此种规定却存在二者相互矛盾以及刑罚轻重的冲突,给理论研究与实践适用带来困扰。基于此,通过对域外异种自由刑数罪并罚规则的考察,借鉴其中折抵和限制加重原则的内容,提出我国异种自由刑并罚规则的改进建议:对有期徒刑和拘役刑的并罚采用综合折抵原则与限制加重原则的方式,而对有期徒刑、拘役刑和管制刑的并罚继续采用并科原则,从而更好地实现数罪并罚的适用。     

基于累积前景理论的多资产投资组合优化与实证研究

基于CPT视角的多风险资产投资组合模型,探讨投资者面对不同投资风险时的心理变化以及心理变化对其投资策略的影响。通过选取不同超额收益率及波动率水平的股票,测试投资策略对于风险态度指标的敏感度。研究表明,投资者面对不同风险具有明显地心理变化,并且其心理变化对投资策略具有显著的影响。具体表现在几个方面：投资者面对不确定收益时,表现出风险厌恶,面对不确定损失时,表现出风险偏好;投资者将无风险资产的投资收益作为心理参考点,所做的投资决策与相对于此参考点的相对财富水平的变化有关,而不是与传统理论中的绝对财富变化量相关。