从分歧到一致--中共高层领导解决西安事变意见透视

西安事变爆发后 ,中共中央高层怎样处理这件大事变 ,开始意见是不一致的 ,主要是审蒋、杀蒋与争取南京正统两种意见。随着事变的发展、演进 ,中共高层意见最终趋于一致 ,大家一致主张释蒋 ,这为第二次国共合作奠定了基础。中国共产党对西安事变独立作出各项决策是及时恰当的 ,从而实现了和平解决西安事变的目标 ,为全民族的团结抗战打开了通道。     

Divergence-based estimation and testing with misclassified data

The well-known chi-squared goodness-of-fit test for a multinomial distribution is generally biased when the observations are subject to misclassification. In Pardo and Zografos (2000) the problem was considered using a double sampling scheme and ø-divergence test statistics. A new problem appears if the null hypothesis is not simple because it is necessary to give estimators for the unknown parameters. In this paper the minimum ø-divergence estimators are considered and some of their properties are established. The proposed ø-divergence test statistics are obtained by calculating ø-divergences between probability density functions and by replacing parameters by their minimum ø-divergence estimators in the derived expressions. Asymptotic distributions of the new test statistics are also obtained. The testing procedure is illustrated with an example.     

Economic convergence and life satisfaction in the European Union

The issue of convergence or divergence in the European Union (EU) is usually viewed from a macroeconomic perspective, using indicators such as the income per head, the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Little attention has been paid to the possibility of an associated convergence in ‘well-being’ across countries. Since recent literature has shown that subjective well-being (life satisfaction, ‘happiness’) is significantly affected by macroeconomic variables, it is natural to ask not only whether or not subjective well-being converges, but also, whether, how and to what extent this process is linked to macroeconomic convergence. In this paper we use self-rated life satisfaction elicited in large scale surveys to address these questions. We find evidence of convergence of life satisfaction across the member states of the EU, which can be attributed to a considerable extent to the convergence in macroeconomic conditions. Among the various macroeconomic indicators, the convergence in inflation rates has played a major role for the convergence in life satisfaction.     

New Goodness-of-Fit Tests Based on Sample Quantiles

In this article power divergences statistics based on sample quantiles are transformed in order to introduce new goodness-of-fit tests. Quantiles of the distribution of proposed statistics are calculated under uniformity, normality, and exponentiality. Several power comparisons are performed to show that the new tests are generally more powerful than the original ones.     

Optimal control designs using predicting densities for the multivariate linear model

We provide an application of a variety of predicting densities to quality control involving multivariate normal linear models. We produce optimal control designs for single muleivaiiate future observations using predicting densities employing estimative, profile likelihood, Hinkley-Lauritzen, Butler, Bayesian, and Parametric Bootstrap methodologies. The decision-theoretic optimality criterion is an intuitively appealing quadratic consumer-producer risk function. The optimal control design arising from an optimal Kullback-Leibler frequentist prediction density is shown to coincide with that arising from an optimal Kullback-Leibler Bayesian predictive density. An example involving EVOP is provided to illustrate the methodology and to raise questions concerning the relative merics of the variety of predictive approaches in the quality control context.     

“大分流”的文化成因说评析

美国学者格里高利·克拉克把工业革命后英国等西方国家的崛起,和中国等亚非国家的持续落后所形成的所谓大分流,归因于所谓文化因素,即不同国家的文化背景决定了各国劳动者的劳动态度和企业管理水平,而劳动态度和管理水平则决定了劳动效率,从而决定了各国经济的不同走向和发展水平。他在进行中国和英美比较时使用了1910年棉纺织业劳动力使用效率作为证据。事实上,他把机器棉纺织工业刚起步不久的中国与工业革命已开展100多年的英美作静态比较,并得出文化差异的结论,是不合理的。在1910年以后的二三十年中,中国机器棉纺织业劳动力使用效率有明显的提升,提升的原因有企业管理制度的改革、管理人员专业化程度的提高、工人职业培训的加强、工人自治制度的实施等;但负面的制约因素持续存在,如货币和经济的大幅波动、社会和政治局势的动荡、国民教育水平提升缓慢、社会保障制度没有建立等。这些有待于国家的全面转型。这些正面和负面的因素说明:随着企业制度和社会制度的改进,劳动效率就会不断提高。文化差异并不妨碍制度改进。大分流的文化成因说很难成立。     

彭慕兰“大分流”对经济史学界提出的警示

彭慕兰"大分流"是"加州学派"的代表性观点,但其基本观点实际上是从诺思假说"真正产业革命出现在19世纪后半叶"派生出来的。"‘大分流’方法论"应当考虑,英格兰本身有调整政策的可能性,毕竟这个原始工业化区域是以一个国家而存在,但中国江南本身没有调整政策的可能性,这个原始工业化区域不过是中央集权管辖下的一个行政区。"大分流"的研究意味着首先要切入生态经济学,进而围绕经济增长来做文章,这导致"大分流"始终只盯住生态制约。技术变迁的基本要素是物力或人力,制度变迁的基本要素是政治组织和意识形态。观察彭慕兰"大分流"明显缺乏对原始工业化的制度变迁背景作出必要分析。"大分流"的技术变迁起因又涉及立宪共和与君主专制的政体差异,旨在维护专制政体的科举制度不可能以知识存量带来技术创新,在专制下官本位抑制了能够引起社会经济变革的重大技术进步。     

The minimum L2 distance estimator for Poisson mixture models

A robust estimator is developed for Poisson mixture models with a known number of components. The proposed estimator minimizes the L₂ distance between a sample of data and the model. When the component distributions are completely known, the estimators for the mixing proportions are in closed form. When the parameters for the component Poisson distributions are unknown, numerical methods are needed to calculate the estimators. Compared to the minimum Hellinger distance estimator, the minimum L₂ estimator can be less robust to extreme outliers, and often more robust to moderate outliers.     

Bayesian inference and diagnostics in zero-inflated generalized power series regression model

ABSTRACT

The paper provides a Bayesian analysis for the zero-inflated regression models based on the generalized power series distribution. The approach is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The residual analysis is discussed and case-deletion influence diagnostics are developed for the joint posterior distribution, based on the ψ-divergence, which includes several divergence measures such as the Kullback–Leibler, J-distance, L₁ norm, and χ²-square in zero-inflated general power series models. The methodology is reflected in a data set collected by wildlife biologists in a state park in California.     

Influential data points in predictive logistic models

The influence of individual points in an ordinal logistic model is considered when the aim is to determine their effects on the predictive probability in a Bayesian predictive approach. Our concern is to study the effects produced when the data are slightly perturbed, in particular by observing how these perturbations will affect the predictive probabilities and consequently the classification of future cases. We consider the extent of the change in the predictive distribution when an individual point is omitted (deleted) from the sample by use of a divergence measure suggested by Johnson (1985) as a measure of discrepancy between the full data and the data with the case deleted. The methodology is illustrated on some data used in Titterington et al. (1981).