How do countries choose their monetary policy frameworks?

This paper investigates the determinants of countries’ choices of monetary policy framework. A brief narrative focused on groupings of countries motivates an econometric analysis which draws on previous work on the determinants of exchange rate regimes, bringing in standard factors as well as the trade networks of potential anchor currency blocs and the financial market depth that are emphasised in the narrative. The model turns out to be able to predict three quarters of countries’ choices, and there is no obvious systematic pattern in the errors. The results have important implications for how countries should choose their monetary policy frameworks.     

LOG-PERIODOGRAM ESTIMATION OF LONG MEMORY VOLATILITY DEPENDENCIES WITH CONDITIONALLY HEAVY TAILED RETURNS

Many recent papers have used semiparametric methods, especially the log-periodogram regression, to detect and estimate long memory in the volatility of asset returns. In these papers, the volatility is proxied by measures such as squared, log-squared, and absolute returns. While the evidence for the existence of long memory is strong using any of these measures, the actual long memory parameter estimates can be sensitive to which measure is used. In Monte-Carlo simulations, I find that if the data is conditionally leptokurtic, the log-periodogram regression estimator using squared returns has a large downward bias, which is avoided by using other volatility measures. In United States stock return data, I find that squared returns give much lower estimates of the long memory parameter than the alternative volatility measures, which is consistent with the simulation results. I conclude that researchers should avoid using the squared returns in the semiparametric estimation of long memory volatility dependencies.     

QFR在我国资本市场的运用价值

高质量财务报告(QFR,Quality F inanc ialReporting)体系指出,在资本市场上通过粉饰财务报表,欺瞒广大的投资者和债权人,会增加公司股票的融资成本,降低股价。运用QFR能够促进我国资本市场的完善和发展,对企业和资本市场来说都有很高的运用价值。     

Household debt and financial assets: evidence from Germany, Great Britain and the USA

Summary.  We explore the determinants of debt, financial assets and net worth at the household level by using survey data for Germany, Great Britain and the USA. To identify which households are potentially vulnerable to adverse changes in the economic environment, we also explore the determinants of a range of measures of financial pressure: the probability that a household has negative net worth; the debt-to-income ratio; mortgage income gearing; the saving-to-income ratio. Our empirical findings suggest that the poorest and the youngest households are the most vulnerable to adverse changes in their financial circumstances.     

试论金融营销与商业银行自生能力的提高

顾客、竞争对手和市场环境等因素使金融营销具有维持商业银行生存发展、促进商业银行自身改革和深化金融市场等重要作用。可在商业银行金融营销机制建立、产品服务创新和质量提高以及改善公共关系方面提高商业银行的自生能力。     

我国农村金融市场效率研究——从金融促进农村经济发展的角度

本文认为判别与评价我国农村金融市场效率应该从下面两个方面进行研究：一是我国农村金融对农村经济的促进作用；二是我国农村金融市场的金融资源的均衡。从金融促进农村经济发展的角度。实证发现我国农村金融市场的效率低于全国金融市场的效率水平，主要由于农村正规金融机构的发展水平低下、农村金融市场的需求低下和农村金融市场的“高风险低效益”等因素所导致。因此，建议：发展中小金融机构，弥补正规金融的不足：创新金融工具，聚集农村金融需求；建立农村金融风险补偿制度，降低金融风险；改革金融定价和补贴政策，提高农村金融收益水平。     

建构适合我国国情的新型医疗救助体制

医疗救助是社会救助体制的重要组成部分,它是政府和社会对贫困人口中因病而无经济能力进行治疗的人实施专项帮助和支持的行为。文章对我国实施医疗救助的迫切性与重要性加以论述,并提出建构适合我国国情的新型医疗救助体制的构想。     

中小企业发展与融资体系的构建

中小企业在其不同的发展阶段面临着不同的融资需求。文章以金融支持为主线,先从宏观层面上考察了企业融资结构分别对宏观经济波动和企业融资体系的影响,再从微观角度出发,试图在对中小企业各发展过程中融资行为、融资约束、融资结构等的分析中探求其“融资难”之所在。最后再依据我国的现实国情,并结合发达国家先进经验,探讨我国中小企业融资体系的构建。     

CCI与中国证券市场走势的实证分析

美英等国的消费者信心指数(CCI)对股市指数收益有很重要的影响力。为探讨CCI与中国证券市场走势的相关关系,通过两类模型对1999年10月~2004年8月间我国股市收益与CCI之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:CCI对深沪五个指数的走势有显著的解释与预测效果,但对我国的B股市场似乎没有显著性。     

现代国际贸易理论中的国内和国际规模收益

在二战后的国际贸易中,工业化国家之间的制造业产品的交易量巨大,这种产业内贸易现象的出现,在一定程度上对传统的赫克歇尔-俄林-萨缪尔逊贸易模型产生了冲击和质疑。经济学家从多个角度寻求对这种现象的理论解释,并开始注意产品差别化及其对规模经济的影响,但是,这些研究对贸易理论的影响很小,并且解释现实的能力也很弱。因此,把差别化的生产资料作为研究的重点,在国际收益的框架下,建立模型以推出国际规模收益,并且运用这一模型得出了国际规模收益、传统的国内规模收益和要素禀赋论之间的关系。