固定效应部分线性变系数面板模型的快速有效估计

本文将最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM) 和二次推断函数法(QIF) 相结合，为个体内具有相关结构的固定效应部分线性变系数面板模型提供了一种新的快速估计方法；在一定的正则条件下，论证了参数估计量的渐近正态性和非参数估计量的收敛速度；采用Monte Carlo模拟考察了估计方法在有限样本下的表现并将估计技术应用于现实数据分析。该方法不仅保证了估计的有效性和统计推断力，而且程序运行速度得到较大幅度提升。     

阿拉伯-伊斯兰世界群体文化心理蠡测(上)

曾经的辉煌与当下的衰败、曾经的核心与目前的边缘化所造成的失落感,三大圣地、《古兰经》与先知穆罕默德的相继蒙羞和遭辱所带来的受辱感,历史的创伤记忆与现实的生存困窘共同积淀成了一种顽强的集体潜意识,形成阿拉伯—伊斯兰民众仇恨与暴力相交织的心理死结,外现为以暴易暴、铤而走险甚至不断丧失自我。因此,阿拉伯—伊斯兰世界应在不断抵抗西方霸权主义对中东诸多利益的制衡中,努力变革滞后于全球化主潮的落后现状。否则,将面临更为严重的民族和地区的倒退,危及世界和平与稳定。     

Testing Hypotheses in Nonparametric Models of Production

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and free disposal hull (FDH) estimators are widely used to estimate efficiency of production. Practitioners use DEA estimators far more frequently than FDH estimators, implicitly assuming that production sets are convex. Moreover, use of the constant returns to scale (CRS) version of the DEA estimator requires an assumption of CRS. Although bootstrap methods have been developed for making inference about the efficiencies of individual units, until now no methods exist for making consistent inference about differences in mean efficiency across groups of producers or for testing hypotheses about model structure such as returns to scale or convexity of the production set. We use central limit theorem results from our previous work to develop additional theoretical results permitting consistent tests of model structure and provide Monte Carlo evidence on the performance of the tests in terms of size and power. In addition, the variable returns to scale version of the DEA estimator is proved to attain the faster convergence rate of the CRS-DEA estimator under CRS. Using a sample of U.S. commercial banks, we test and reject convexity of the production set, calling into question results from numerous banking studies that have imposed convexity assumptions. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

阿拉伯语语法推理思维的文化探析

语法是语言的结构方式和组织规则,它兼具人类共性和民族个性.语法规则是人类长期抽象思维的成果和社团约定,它反映着语言社团的文化规约和语言学家的思维方式.阿拉伯语语法与汉语截然不同,与印欧语系语言相似,属于有明显形态标记的形式语法,具有清楚的逻辑推理思维,即遵循概念、判断和推理的基础模式.本文对此现象进行了阐释,并探究其文化成因.     

大数据背景下网络调查样本的建模推断问题研究——以广义Boosted模型的倾向得分推断为例

随着大数据和网络的不断发展,网络调查越来越广泛,大部分网络调查样本属于非概率样本,难以采用传统的抽样推断理论进行推断,如何解决网络调查样本的推断问题是大数据背景下网络调查发展的迫切需求。本文首次从建模的角度提出了解决该问题的基本思路：一是入样概率的建模推断,可以考虑构建基于机器学习与变量选择的倾向得分模型来估计入样概率推断总体;二是目标变量的建模推断,可以考虑直接对目标变量建立参数、非参数或半参数超总体模型进行估计;三是入样概率与目标变量的双重建模推断,可以考虑进行倾向得分模型与超总体模型的加权估计与混合推断。最后,以基于广义Boosted模型的入样概率建模推断为例演示了具体解决方法。     

Fathering With Multiple Partners: Links to Children's Well‐Being in Early Childhood

The claim that multiple partner fertility may pose a risk of adverse outcomes for children has not been tested. We test this argument using a sample of 4,027 resident fathers and children from the Fragile Families and Child Well‐being Survey by examining the pathways through which fathers' multipartnered fertility is associated with children's externalizing behaviors and physical health status at 36 months. Path analyses indicate that multiple partner fertility exerted both a significant direct and indirect effect through paternal depression to influence children's externalizing behaviors. Fathers' multiple partner fertility also exerted a significant indirect effect through one mediator—father involvement—to influence children's physical health. This evidence suggests that the disruptions brought about by multipartnered fertility are important for understanding child well‐being.     

Fathers' Investments of Money and Time Across Residential Contexts

Fathers' roles in family life have changed dramatically over the past 50 years. In addition to ongoing breadwinning responsibilities, many fathers are now involved in direct caregiving and engagement with children. Yet there is considerable variation in what fathers do, especially depending on whether they live with or away from their child. In this article, the authors use data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 3,869) to describe how fathers' economic capacities (money) and direct involvement with children (time) are associated over child ages 1 to 9 for resident versus nonresident fathers, net of confounding factors. They found suggestive evidence that money and time investments operate differently across residential contexts: Resident fathers experience a trade‐off between market work and time involved with children. In contrast, nonresident fathers' higher economic capacities are associated with more time involvement, underscoring the greater challenge for such fathers to remain actively involved.     

Child‐Care Instability and Behavior Problems: Does Parenting Stress Mediate the Relationship?

Child‐care instability is associated with more behavior problems in young children, but the mechanisms of this relationship are not well understood. Theoretically, this relationship is likely to emerge, at least in part, because care instability leads to increased parenting stress. Moreover, low socioeconomic status and single‐mother families may be more vulnerable to the effects of instability. This study tested these hypotheses using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing study (N = 1,675) and structural equation modeling. Three types of child‐care instability were examined: long‐term instability, multiplicity, and needing to use back‐up arrangements. Overall, findings showed little evidence that parenting stress mediated the associations between care instability and child behavior problems among the full sample. Among single‐mother and low‐income families, however, needing to use back‐up arrangements had small positive associations with parenting stress, which partially mediated the relationship between that type of care instability and child externalizing behavior problems.     

Who Is the Residential Parent? Understanding Discrepancies in Unmarried Parents' Reports

Research examining parental reports of children's living arrangements has often relied on information about legally ordered custody agreements following divorce. This analysis used data from matched pairs of parents (N = 1,156) in the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study who live apart to compare mother and father reports of their child's residence 5 years after a nonmarital birth. The authors found that over one third of unmarried parents disagreed about who their child lived with and that conflicting reports were much more likely when fathers spent nights with the mother (an indicator of part‐time cohabitation) and had overnights with the child on their own. The results further suggest that discrepancies in unmarried parents' reports were more closely associated with the complexity and ambiguity of their living situations than with the quality of their relationships with each other. Implications for measuring children's living arrangements in families formed outside of marriage are discussed.     

Those They Leave Behind: Paternal Incarceration and Maternal Instrumental Support

As the American imprisonment rate has risen, researchers have become increasingly concerned about the implications of mass imprisonment for family life. The authors extend this research by examining how paternal incarceration is linked to perceived instrumental support among the mothers of inmates' children. Results from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 4,132) suggest that recent, but not current, paternal incarceration is independently associated with less maternal perceived instrumental support and that this association persists after adjusting for a rich set of control variables, including prior perceived instrumental support. For families of recently incarcerated men, incarceration may be a double strike, simultaneously increasing the need for instrumental support while decreasing its availability when incarcerated fathers return to the community.