Product partition latent variable model for multiple change-point detection in multivariate data

The product partition model (PPM) is a well-established efficient statistical method for detecting multiple change points in time-evolving univariate data. In this article, we refine the PPM for the purpose of detecting multiple change points in correlated multivariate time-evolving data. Our model detects distributional changes in both the mean and covariance structures of multivariate Gaussian data by exploiting a smaller dimensional representation of correlated multiple time series. The utility of the proposed method is demonstrated through experiments on simulated and real datasets.     

从不同价值领域看中国传统价值观

对不同价值领域间关系的定位与评判是反映人们价值观的一个重要维度。中国传统价值观在道德价值与非道德价值领域、家庭生活与政治生活领域、道德价值与超道德的神圣价值领域、不同文化领域之间的关系上都表现出一元论的倾向。我们应立足于领域分离、价值多元的现代背景对其进行反思 ,以构建有中国特色的价值观念体系     

Assessing goodness-of-fit of categorical regression models based on case-control data

Demonstrated equivalence between a categorical regression model based on case‐control data and an I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model leads to a new goodness‐of‐fit test. The proposed test statistic is an extension of an existing Kolmogorov–Smirnov‐type statistic and is the weighted average of the absolute differences between two estimated distribution functions in each response category. The paper establishes an optimal property for the maximum semiparametric likelihood estimator of the parameters in the I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model. It also presents a bootstrap procedure, some simulation results and an analysis of two real datasets.     

俄汉语认知域中的转喻与隐喻连续体现象——以俄汉语“手”的认知为例

语言中的基本范畴词是人们认识世莽的基础，在此基础上人们通过转喻、隐喻来认知更抽象的概念和事物。俄汉语中的“рука——手”同属基本范畴词，具有很强的转喻：隐喻能力。通过手部动作认知、情绪认知、场景认知、权势认知、身体结构认知等方面研究俄汉语认知域中转喻与隐喻的交互作用在词汇层面的连续体关系，将有助于从实证的角度对比分析俄汉语转喻和隐喻思维模式的异同，探求造成两个民族认知差异的文化因素。     

Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

Goodness of fit for the inverse Gaussian distribution

For testing the fit of the inverse Gaussian distribution with unknown parameters, the empirical distribution-function statistic A² is studied. Two procedures are followed in constructing the test statistic; they yield the same asymptotic distribution. In the first procedure the parameters in the distribution function are directly estimated, and in the second the distribution function is estimated by its Rao-Blackwell distribution estimator. A table is given for the asymptotic critical points of A². These are shown to depend only on the ratio of the unknown parameters. An analysis is provided of the effect of estimating the ratio to enter the table for A². This analysis enables the proposal of the complete operating procedure, which is sustained by a Monte Carlo study.     

分析Chiral分层媒质特性的一般方法(英文)

提出了一套系统方法用于求解任意导体片位于界面的Chiral分层媒质的谐振频率,衰减因子和电磁场分布。文中的分析是在Fourier变换域的并矢格林函数和矩阵分析的基础上来进行的,给出的公式的最大价值在于它提供了求解Chiral分层媒质问题的方法论。     

复射线ABCD定律及初步应用

根据复变函数解析开拓原理提出了复射线的ＡＢＣＤ定律，并用它说明了高斯光束复参数的ＡＢＣＤ定律与几何先学ＡＢＣＤ定律的内在联系。     

Expected sample moments of concomitants of selected order statistics

In this paper, the task of determining expected values of sample moments, where the sample members have been selected based on noisy information, is considered. This task is a recurring problem in the theory of evolution strategies. Exact expressions for expected values of sums of products of concomitants of selected order statistics are derived. Then, using Edgeworth and Cornish-Fisher approximations, explicit results that depend on coefficients that can be determined numerically are obtained. While the results are exact only for normal populations, it is shown experimentally that including skewness and kurtosis in the calculations can yield greatly improved results for other distributions.     

受控核聚变的一种新途径──低能注入式磁盖势阱约束法受控核聚变

提出了磁盖势阱（ＭＬＰＷ）一种静电装置,该装置是在球形静电势阱的外围加上磁盖而构成的,可用于受控核聚变．通过建立磁盖势阱中带电粒子的运动方程并取单粒子谐振子近似以及运用自洽场的统计方法,球形聚变炉内大量带电粒子的集体行为被计算机所研究和模拟．由于使用了电场与磁场的联合约束,与单独的磁约束或惯性约束受控核聚变相比,所需达到的技术指标将有所改善,工程技术上的难度也会有所降低