FDI与上海经济增长关系的实证分析

本文根据1991～2002年上海的外商直接投资(FDI)和GDP时间序列数据,研究了FDI与上海经济增长之间的关系。研究结果表明,上海经济增长与FDI之间并不存在直接的因果关系。FDI对上海经济增长的直接作用并不明显,我们认为FDI对经济的推动作用体现在其“溢出效应”上。     

企业成长过程中组织结构演进规律及动因

阐述企业成长过程中组织结构的演变规律,运用管理学及经济学相关理论,揭示组织结构演变的内在动因。分析表明,随着企业的成长,组织结构呈现从直线职能制到事业部制的规律性变化,从管理学意义上,这种变化极大地降低了生产成本和流通费用,从而取得了管理协调的“速度经济”;从经济学意义上,则意味着管理分工导致企业运营效率提高;更深层次看,是一个分权的、控制权较为明晰的组织模式被逐渐使用,最终导致一个均衡权力结构模型———联邦分权式事业部制的产生。     

Sampling Strategies for Toxic Air Contaminants

Annual concentrations of toxic air contaminants are of primary concern from the perspective of chronic human exposure assessment and risk analysis. Despite recent advances in air quality monitoring technology, resource and technical constraints often impose limitations on the availability of a sufficient number of ambient concentration measurements for performing environmental risk analysis. Therefore, sample size limitations, representativeness of data, and uncertainties in the estimated annual mean concentration must be examined before performing quantitative risk analysis. In this paper, we discuss several factors that need to be considered in designing field-sampling programs for toxic air contaminants and in verifying compliance with environmental regulations. Specifically, we examine the behavior of SO2, TSP, and CO data as surrogates for toxic air contaminants and as examples of point source, area source, and line source-dominated pollutants, respectively, from the standpoint of sampling design. We demonstrate the use of bootstrap resampling method and normal theory in estimating the annual mean concentration and its 95% confidence bounds from limited sampling data, and illustrate the application of operating characteristic (OC) curves to determine optimum sample size and other sampling strategies. We also outline a statistical procedure, based on a one-sided t-test, that utilizes the sampled concentration data for evaluating whether a sampling site is compliance with relevant ambient guideline concentrations for toxic air contaminants.     

中国经济增长模式转型：供给结构视角分析

本文从供给结构角度分析了自1978年以来中国经济增长模式转型的特征，并针对存在的问题提出了相应的解决对策，旨在寻求经济增长模式转型的有效路径。     

Principal curves revisited

A principal curve (Hastie and Stuetzle, 1989) is a smooth curve passing through the middle of a distribution or data cloud, and is a generalization of linear principal components. We give an alternative definition of a principal curve, based on a mixture model. Estimation is carried out through an EM algorithm. Some comparisons are made to the Hastie-Stuetzle definition.     

Resampling-based Classification Using Depth for Functional Curves

The depths, which have been used to detect outliers or to extract a representative subset, can be applied to classification. We propose a resampling-based classification method based on the fact that resampling techniques yield a consistent estimator of the distribution of a statistic. The performance of this method was evaluated with eight contaminated models in terms of Correct Classification Rates (CCRs), and the results were compared with other known methods. The proposed method consistently showed higher average CCRs and 4% higher CCR at the maximum compared to other methods. In addition, this method was applied to Berkeley data. The average CCRs were between 0.79 and 0.85.     

Testing hypotheses for the growth curve model when the data are incomplete

Kleinbaum (1973) developed a generalized growth curve model for analyzing incomplete longitudinal data. In this paper the small sample properties of several related test statistics are investigated via Monte Carlo techniques. The covariance matrix is estimated by each of three non-iterative methods. The null and non-null distributions of these test statistics are examined.     

试论《贵妇的画像》中伊莎贝尔的成长

《贵妇的画像》是19世纪末美国著名小说家亨利·詹姆斯的杰作之一,同时也是其创作早期代表作,是美国现代小说的一个里程碑式的作品,具有较强的可读性。这部作品结构严谨、内涵丰富,以精巧的笔触对女性的心理进行了细致入微的刻画。本文通过《贵妇的画像》这本小说,对主人伊莎贝尔·阿切尔的成长进行了深入探讨。     

朝鲜族人口自然增长率下降对发展的影响

本文分析了朝鲜族人口减少的主要原因及负面影响,并提出了解决的对策.