LOG-PERIODOGRAM ESTIMATION OF LONG MEMORY VOLATILITY DEPENDENCIES WITH CONDITIONALLY HEAVY TAILED RETURNS

Many recent papers have used semiparametric methods, especially the log-periodogram regression, to detect and estimate long memory in the volatility of asset returns. In these papers, the volatility is proxied by measures such as squared, log-squared, and absolute returns. While the evidence for the existence of long memory is strong using any of these measures, the actual long memory parameter estimates can be sensitive to which measure is used. In Monte-Carlo simulations, I find that if the data is conditionally leptokurtic, the log-periodogram regression estimator using squared returns has a large downward bias, which is avoided by using other volatility measures. In United States stock return data, I find that squared returns give much lower estimates of the long memory parameter than the alternative volatility measures, which is consistent with the simulation results. I conclude that researchers should avoid using the squared returns in the semiparametric estimation of long memory volatility dependencies.     

浅谈玉柴重工的精益营销模式

广西玉柴重工有限公司是中国最大的中小型工程机械生产基地、出口基地,全球工程机械50强,排名43位。玉柴重工近年来高速发展,并在精益营销、公司管控、产品扩张等方面取得了令人瞩目的成绩。特别是在2010年,玉柴重工分别在常州、泸州建立了生产基地,在天津设立了全球营销结算中心、全球服务中心。天津玉柴重工的成立,标志着玉柴重工对营销资源进行了合理而有限的配置,迈出了精益营销的步伐。本文探讨进行精益营销的前因后果及必要性。     

A new heavy-tailed distribution defined on the bounded interval: the logit slash distribution and its application

This paper proposes a new heavy-tailed and alternative slash type distribution on a bounded interval via a relation of a slash random variable with respect to the standard logistic function to model the real data set with skewed and high kurtosis which includes the outlier observation. Some basic statistical properties of the newly defined distribution are studied. We derive the maximum likelihood, least-square, and weighted least-square estimations of its parameters. We assess the performance of the estimators of these estimation methods by the simulation study. Moreover, an application to real data demonstrates that the proposed distribution can provide a better fit than well-known bounded distributions in the literature when the skewed data set with high kurtosis contains the outlier observations.     

明代重赋出于政治原因说

明代江南苏州、松江等地的田赋负担十分沉重,这是明史和中国经济史中的一大问题。明清以来,对明代苏松重赋问题的原因论述极多,但众说纷坛,莫衷一是。其实,明代除江南地区外,明代江西、陕西等地也出现了重赋现象。通盘考察明代的几个重赋区可以发现,这些地区虽自然、经济社会条件大相径庭,但共同的一点是元末明初皆为朱元璋的敌对势力所占领,他们曾与明军相抗衡,这正是这些地区遭到朱元璋重赋政策惩罚的原因。     

重新重工业化不等于粗放增长和走旧型工业化道路——对吴敬琏研究员相关论述的质疑

霍夫曼定理是已被历史证明的工业化发展的客观规律。重工业并不必然是资源消耗型、环境污染型产业。重工业的发展并不必然是粗放增长、外廷扩大,也不就是坚持走已经过时的旧型工业化道路。中国重新重工业化绕不开,也跨不过。反对重新重工业化,只会延误中国工业化、城镇化、现代化的进程。中国现在还不可能以服务业为主导,而且发展重工业并不排斥服务业特别是生产性服务业的发展。从总体和长期来看,重新开始重工业化有利于就业问题的解决。中国的比较优势已经发生了变化,具备了发展重工业的资本条件。重新重工业化,主要不是政府调节的产物,而是市场调节的结果。现在如果不再次大力发展重工业,到2020年就不可能完成基本实现工业化和城市化的任务。     

改写理论视角下葛浩文英译《沉重的翅膀》译者主体性研究

改写理论视角下,翻译是一种改写,译者受到意识形态、诗学和赞助人的制约。通过分析葛浩文翻译的《沉重的翅膀》在以上三种因素制约下对原文的改写,总结出葛浩文发挥译者主体性的特点,进而发掘译者主体性的发挥在改写理论视角下可操作的维度。     

Monitoring Change in Persistence Against the Null of Difference-Stationarity in Infinite Variance Observations

In this article, we propose a moving kernel-weighted variance ratio statistic to monitor persistence change in infinite variance observations. We focus on I(1) to I(0) persistence change for sequences in the domain of attraction of a stable law and local-to-finite variance sequences. The null distribution of the monitoring statistic and its consistency are proved. In particular, a bootstrap procedure is proposed to determine the critical values for the derived asymptotic distribution depends on unknown tail index. The small sample performances of proposed monitoring procedure are illustrated by both simulation and application to a high frequency financial data.     

重交通道路水泥混凝土路面与沥青路面技术经济分析

随着公路运输的发展，运输车辆超载巳成为十分普遍的现象，超载是导致沥青路面结构早期损坏的主要原因。本文通过交通量调查，实测超载车辆的轴重，并通过技术经济对比，提出严重超载的路段，修筑水泥混凝土路面结构，可有效地解决沥青路面的早期损坏。     

唐宋之际徽州重税考

本文通过对唐宋之际陶雅徽州重税原因进行考辨后认为 ,徽州重税并非是因为当时的刺史陶雅欲取宠节度使杨行密 ,或是迫于军事需要的加征所导致的 ,而是受到税制变迁和地理环境双重因素影响造成的。徽州重税真正沉重不在正税 ,而在杂税上。     

微核率、染色体畸变率与重金属离子的关系初探

蚕豆根尖微核率（ＭＣＷ）、染色体畸变率（ＣＡＦ）与重金属离子间有明显的效应－剂量关系。在较低剂量情况下，两者呈直线回归；在较高条件下，据本实验（采用Ｐｈ和Ｈｇ）结果，随处理浓度的提高，其关系曲线为“Ｍ”形。通过对聚丙烯酸胺过氧化物同功酶电泳的结果及前人成果分析，认为这与同工酶变化及抗性酶活性有关。另外，对于Ｐｂ、Ｈｇ处理，间期ＭＣＮＦ，中期ＣＡＦ和后期ＣＡＦ随浓度的升高并不同步达到最大值，即中期ＣＡＦ与剂量的线性区段长于其他两者。