Spell incidence, spell duration and the measurement of unemployment

The proportion of the population out of work is an unsatisfactory measure of unemployment because it is indifferent to the way in which a given amount of unemployment time is distributed across the population. This paper offers a new way of measuring unemployment which takes account of both the frequency and duration of unemployment spells. The proposed unemployment index may be interpreted as the ‘welfare equivalent’ period of unemployment, and decomposes into the product of three components: a spell incidence factor, a duration factor, and the average unemployment rate.     

On the incidence–prevalence relation and length‐biased sampling

For many diseases, logistic constraints render large incidence studies difficult to carry out. This becomes a drawback, particularly when a new study is needed each time the incidence rate is investigated in a new population. By carrying out a prevalent cohort study with follow‐up it is possible to estimate the incidence rate if it is constant. The authors derive the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the overall incidence rate, λ, as well as age‐specific incidence rates, by exploiting the epidemiologic relationship, (prevalence odds) = (incidence rate) × (mean duration) (P/[1 ? P] = λ × µ). The authors establish the asymptotic distributions of the MLEs and provide approximate confidence intervals for the parameters. Moreover, the MLE of λ is asymptotically most efficient and is the natural estimator obtained by substituting the marginal maximum likelihood estimators for P and µ into P/[1 ? P] = λ × µ. Following‐up the subjects allows the authors to develop these widely applicable procedures. The authors apply their methods to data collected as part of the Canadian Study of Health and Ageing to estimate the incidence rate of dementia amongst elderly Canadians. The Canadian Journal of Statistics © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

643例老干部健康体检患病情况分析

目的探讨影响老干部健康的主要疾病及预防策略。方法采用常规健康体检方法对我区643例老(≥60岁)干部进行全面体检及心电图、血液生化指标的检查,并以同时进行体检的1147例老年前期(50～59岁)干部作为对照。结果高脂血症、脂肪肝、高血糖、肾结石、高血压和前列腺增生为这些人群中患病率较高的前六位疾病。老年组中脂肪肝、高血压、高血糖和前列腺增生的患病率均高于老年前期组(P<0．05-0．005),高脂血症和肾结石的患病率在两组间均无显著性差异(P>0．05)。老年组心电图和超声心动图检查出现心肌缺血的改变均多于老年前期组(均P<0．005)。结论诸如高血压、高血糖等动脉硬化的高危因素在老年人中常见,定期健康体检是早期防治心血管疾病的有效方法。     

On the block structure of proper block designs

In this paper we consider proper block designs and derive an upper bound for the number of blocks which can have a fixed number of symbols common with a given block of the design. To arrive at the desired bound, a generalization of an integer programming theorem due to Bush (1976) is first obtained. The integer programming theorem is then used to derive the main result of this paper. The bound given here is then compared with a similar bound obtained by Kageyama and Tsuji (1977).     

Constructions of efficiency-balanced designs

We present a number of methods of constructing efficiency-balanced binary block designs which are design patterns for simplification of statistical analysis. Furthermore, a method of construction of an efficiency-balanced block design with v+1 treatments from one with v treatments is generally characterized.     

Risk factors for severe perineal trauma during vaginal childbirth: A Western Australian retrospective cohort study

AimTo determine rates and risk factors for third and fourth degree perineal tears (severe perineal trauma) in a Western Australian context.Design and settingA retrospective hospital-based cohort study was performed using computerised data for 10,408 singleton vaginal deliveries from 28 weeks gestation.MethodsWomen with severe perineal trauma were compared to those without. Logistic regression analysis, stratified by parity, was used to assess demographic and obstetric factors associated with perineal trauma.ResultsSevere perineal trauma incidence was 3% (338/10408), 5.4% (239/4405) for primiparas and 1.7% (99/5990) for multiparas (p < 0.001). Adjusted risk factors associated with trauma and common across parity included Asian or Indian ethnicity, shoulder dystocia and assisted delivery. Epidural analgesia (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.54–0.96), preterm birth (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.23–0.72) and episiotomy (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39–0.74) were protective in primiparas, while episiotomy was associated with increased risk in multiparas (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.18–3.45). Additional factors among primiparas were occipito posterior (OP) delivery (OR 3.35, 95% CI 1.75–6.41) and prolonged second stage (OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.46–2.68), and among multiparas included gestational diabetes (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.04–3.03) and birth weight >4000 g (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.10–3.15).ConclusionParity differences in risk factors such as episiotomy, infant weight, OP delivery, gestational diabetes and prolonged second stage warrant investigation into clinical management. Although rates differ internationally, and replication evidence has confirmed consistency for certain demographic and obstetric factors, the development of internationally endorsed clinical guidelines and further research around interventions to protect the perineum are recommended.     

张之洞策反邱菽园

根据中国社会科学院近代史研究所图书馆所藏"张之洞档案",可以知道光绪二十六年(1900)至二十七年邱菽园与康有为决裂,其中一个重要原因(很可能是主要原因)是张之洞的策反。张之洞通过清朝驻英公使罗丰禄、驻新加坡领事罗忠尧、两广总督陶模对邱菽园进行了劝说的工作。在张之洞通缉与劝说的两手交并使用下,邱菽园选择了纳金免灾的办法,公开登报与康有为决裂。     

商业银行信用风险的灰色关联评价研究

文章针对商业银行信用风险评价中多目标决策的复杂性,建立了商业银行信用风险评价指标体系,运用层次分析法来确定评价指标的权重,并以风险指标的灰色关联度为评判准则,提出了一种评价商业银行信用风险的新方法,实例证明该方法是可行的。     

甘肃省不同地区出生缺陷致病因素分析

为提高人口素质,预防出生缺陷的发生。我们根据甘肃地理特点及经济状况,按随机分层整群抽样方法,抽取当地出生的5岁内婴幼儿作为调查对象。以出生缺陷患儿为病例组,以同年、同性别、居住地相近的正常儿作为对照,对其家庭进行调查。结果显示甘肃省不同地区出生缺陷共有的易患因素为:母亲孕早期服药史;母亲孕早期感染史;父亲年龄在35岁以上亦是产生出生缺陷的危险因素。提示实施出生缺陷干预工程应大力进行孕前、孕早健康教育,深化优生指导,以达到降低出生缺陷发生率的目的。     

阜新经济的现状与发展趋势预测分析

以国内生产总值为研究对象 ,系统分析阜新经济发展规律及发展现状 ,对国内生产总值进行了预测分析 ,指出了阜新经济实现可持发展战略的方向