Confidence intervals,significance values,maximum likelihood estimates,etc. sharpened into Occam’s razors

Abstract

Confidence sets, p values, maximum likelihood estimates, and other results of non-Bayesian statistical methods may be adjusted to favor sampling distributions that are simple compared to others in the parametric family. The adjustments are derived from a prior likelihood function previously used to adjust posterior distributions.     

外商直接投资对我国三大都市圈技术外溢效应的比较研究

本文对外商直接投资在我国三大都市圈的技术外溢效应进行了比较研究,结果表明,外商直接投资在整体上对三大都市圈的技术外溢效应显著,但不同地区之间存在着明显的差别。三大都市圈应在不断加强对外商直接投资技术外溢的消化吸收能力的同时,注重提升本土的自主创新能力。     

BAYESIAN SUBSET SELECTION AND MODEL AVERAGING USING A CENTRED AND DISPERSED PRIOR FOR THE ERROR VARIANCE

This article proposes a new data‐based prior distribution for the error variance in a Gaussian linear regression model, when the model is used for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging. For a given subset of variables in the model, this prior has a mode that is an unbiased estimator of the error variance but is suitably dispersed to make it uninformative relative to the marginal likelihood. The advantage of this empirical Bayes prior for the error variance is that it is centred and dispersed sensibly and avoids the arbitrary specification of hyperparameters. The performance of the new prior is compared to that of a prior proposed previously in the literature using several simulated examples and two loss functions. For each example our paper also reports results for the model that orthogonalizes the predictor variables before performing subset selection. A real example is also investigated. The empirical results suggest that for both the simulated and real data, the performance of the estimators based on the prior proposed in our article compares favourably with that of a prior used previously in the literature.     

A note on interval‐censored lifetime data and the constant‐sum condition of oiler,gómez & calle (2004)

Oiler, Gomez & Calle (2004) give a constant sum condition for processes that generate interval‐censored lifetime data. They show that in models satisfying this condition, it is possible to estimate non‐parametrically the lifetime distribution based on a well‐known simplified likelihood. The author shows that this constant‐sum condition is equivalent to the existence of an observation process that is independent of lifetimes and which gives the same probability distribution for the observed data as the underlying true process.     

河南省工业自主创新能力的演进及其结构性分析

自主创新能力是技术能力演进的高级阶段，而技术学习是技术能力积累的前提。河南省工业在总量上保持了较快的增长势头，技术进步的作用日益明显，但在技术引进的消化吸收、技术创新环境、技术创新资源以及技术创新活动和产出方面表现出较强的不对称性。     

Bayesian analysis of elapsed times in continuous‐time Markov chains

The authors consider Bayesian analysis for continuous‐time Markov chain models based on a conditional reference prior. For such models, inference of the elapsed time between chain observations depends heavily on the rate of decay of the prior as the elapsed time increases. Moreover, improper priors on the elapsed time may lead to improper posterior distributions. In addition, an infinitesimal rate matrix also characterizes this class of models. Experts often have good prior knowledge about the parameters of this matrix. The authors show that the use of a proper prior for the rate matrix parameters together with the conditional reference prior for the elapsed time yields a proper posterior distribution. The authors also demonstrate that, when compared to analyses based on priors previously proposed in the literature, a Bayesian analysis on the elapsed time based on the conditional reference prior possesses better frequentist properties. The type of prior thus represents a better default prior choice for estimation software.     

独立董事连锁对内部控制的影响机理: 基于声誉效应与学习效应的实证研究

本文首次从独立董事连锁的声誉效应和学习效应视角,运用匹配(1:1 Pairing)+双重差分(DID)法研究独立董事连锁对企业内部控制质量的影响机理。研究发现:在声誉效应视角,独立董事连锁能显著提高企业的内部控制质量,且兼任公司家数较多的连锁独立董事对内部控制质量的提高作用更明显;在学习效应视角,独立董事连锁能显著提高其董事会出席率,且该种效应主要出现在高学历的连锁独立董事身上。此外,本研究首次发现了独立董事连锁对企业内部控制质量的传导机制,即通过提高连锁独立董事的董事会出席率进而提升了企业的内部控制质量。本文的结果表明,我国监管部门和上市公司应当重视独立董事连锁的作用,这对公司治理与内部控制相关政策的制定具有重要的启发意义。     

Assisting the High Administrative Court in Restricting Too Broad a Concept of Academic Judgment

I have received substantial monetary compensation and a formal apology from my first doctoral school, and a Ph.D. from another university. This essay describes my personal view on discussing the boundaries of academic judgment and research supervision with the ombudsman agency for higher education, and at the High Administrative Court of England and Wales. The Court’s judicial doctrine addresses substantial research accountability matters. It clarifies that although the Court and ombudsman agency must not interfere with academic judgment, not everything done by an academic can be considered as academic judgment. A Ph.D. supervisor can seriously fail to perform his/her duties.     

独立学院文化现状及改进对策

大学文化是大学所有成员在历史时间内创造的精神财富和物质财富的总和。而独立学院文化的现状是文化不够鲜明、完整、深厚,因此,独立学院需要从文化培育、文化落实、文化传承、文化创新等方面加以改进。     

The empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior under Stein's loss function

For the hierarchical Poisson and gamma model, we calculate the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter of the Poisson distribution under Stein's loss function which penalizes gross overestimation and gross underestimation equally and the corresponding Posterior Expected Stein's Loss (PESL). We also obtain the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter under the squared error loss and the corresponding PESL. Moreover, we obtain the empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior by two methods. In numerical simulations, we have illustrated: The two inequalities of the Bayes posterior estimators and the PESLs; the moment estimators and the Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLEs) are consistent estimators of the hyperparameters; the goodness-of-fit of the model to the simulated data. The numerical results indicate that the MLEs are better than the moment estimators when estimating the hyperparameters. Finally, we exploit the attendance data on 314 high school juniors from two urban high schools to illustrate our theoretical studies.