全文获取类型
收费全文 | 1051篇 |
免费 | 95篇 |
国内免费 | 17篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 522篇 |
民族学 | 1篇 |
人口学 | 5篇 |
丛书文集 | 35篇 |
理论方法论 | 105篇 |
综合类 | 279篇 |
社会学 | 57篇 |
统计学 | 159篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 2篇 |
2023年 | 15篇 |
2022年 | 30篇 |
2021年 | 17篇 |
2020年 | 42篇 |
2019年 | 35篇 |
2018年 | 37篇 |
2017年 | 37篇 |
2016年 | 46篇 |
2015年 | 36篇 |
2014年 | 54篇 |
2013年 | 98篇 |
2012年 | 69篇 |
2011年 | 71篇 |
2010年 | 52篇 |
2009年 | 41篇 |
2008年 | 57篇 |
2007年 | 48篇 |
2006年 | 38篇 |
2005年 | 59篇 |
2004年 | 51篇 |
2003年 | 26篇 |
2002年 | 31篇 |
2001年 | 20篇 |
2000年 | 19篇 |
1999年 | 19篇 |
1998年 | 9篇 |
1997年 | 14篇 |
1996年 | 11篇 |
1995年 | 9篇 |
1994年 | 17篇 |
1993年 | 10篇 |
1992年 | 10篇 |
1991年 | 4篇 |
1990年 | 5篇 |
1989年 | 8篇 |
1988年 | 4篇 |
1987年 | 5篇 |
1986年 | 2篇 |
1985年 | 1篇 |
1984年 | 1篇 |
1981年 | 3篇 |
排序方式: 共有1163条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
《Journal of Policy Modeling》2020,42(6):1187-1207
This paper investigates the determinants of countries’ choices of monetary policy framework. A brief narrative focused on groupings of countries motivates an econometric analysis which draws on previous work on the determinants of exchange rate regimes, bringing in standard factors as well as the trade networks of potential anchor currency blocs and the financial market depth that are emphasised in the narrative. The model turns out to be able to predict three quarters of countries’ choices, and there is no obvious systematic pattern in the errors. The results have important implications for how countries should choose their monetary policy frameworks. 相似文献
2.
《European Management Journal》2020,38(6):900-913
Based on the environment-strategy performance perspective and dynamic capabilities framework, we develop a theoretical model and hypotheses specifying how supply chain collaboration as a response to environment context factors – competitive intensity, supply uncertainty, technological turbulence and market turbulence, using a lean and agile strategy may influence firm performance. We test the model using partial least square structural equation modelling on data collected from a field survey with responses from 152 manufacturing firms representing a variety of industries. Empirical findings generally support the relationship between collaboration and firm performance using a lean and agile strategy. Also, for firms in industries that face environments characterised by high supply uncertainty and competitive intensity with, technological turbulence, the study finds evidence of a direct relationship between these environmental factors and supply chain collaboration. The findings provide an initial strategic response framework for appropriately aligning a lean and agile supply chain strategy through collaboration with environment context factors to achieve firm performance improvements. 相似文献
3.
《Risk analysis》2018,38(8):1576-1584
Fault trees are used in reliability modeling to create logical models of fault combinations that can lead to undesirable events. The output of a fault tree analysis (the top event probability) is expressed in terms of the failure probabilities of basic events that are input to the model. Typically, the basic event probabilities are not known exactly, but are modeled as probability distributions: therefore, the top event probability is also represented as an uncertainty distribution. Monte Carlo methods are generally used for evaluating the uncertainty distribution, but such calculations are computationally intensive and do not readily reveal the dominant contributors to the uncertainty. In this article, a closed‐form approximation for the fault tree top event uncertainty distribution is developed, which is applicable when the uncertainties in the basic events of the model are lognormally distributed. The results of the approximate method are compared with results from two sampling‐based methods: namely, the Monte Carlo method and the Wilks method based on order statistics. It is shown that the closed‐form expression can provide a reasonable approximation to results obtained by Monte Carlo sampling, without incurring the computational expense. The Wilks method is found to be a useful means of providing an upper bound for the percentiles of the uncertainty distribution while being computationally inexpensive compared with full Monte Carlo sampling. The lognormal approximation method and Wilks’s method appear attractive, practical alternatives for the evaluation of uncertainty in the output of fault trees and similar multilinear models. 相似文献
4.
刘亚莉 《三峡大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2002,24(4):52-54
阐述了或有事项引起的财务报表变动 ,建立了一套财务指标 ,分析了或有事项对企业财务能力的影响 ,并指出在不确定性会计处理中应注意的几个问题 相似文献
5.
Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables. 相似文献
6.
本文试图在分析我国通货膨胀成因的基础上,进一步分析各项与此有关的宏观调控手段,建立反映通货膨胀与这些调控手段之间关系的计量经济模型,并利用该模型分析各项调控手段的变化及对通货膨胀的定量作用. 相似文献
7.
基于需求不确定性的供应链库存控制研究 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
潘文安 《武汉理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2004,17(6):698-702
通过建立需求不确定性环境下供应链成员的独立存货成本模型,运用模拟退火法对该模型进行52周的仿真,求解存货最佳订购数量与最佳再订购点,从而比较出不同存货控制策略的供应链存货总成本及订单满足率的差异。 相似文献
8.
现代科技革命的方法论转变 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
颜晓峰 《河南科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2003,21(1):35-40
哥白尼、牛顿、达尔文在科学领域的革命促成了近代的世界观、方法论从神学向科学的转变 ,动力与传播革命改变了人的活动方式。现代科学的相对论和量子力学革命是走出牛顿科学的开端 ,计算机网络造成的信息社会提出了新的问题。现代科学的方法论思想重点在于强调时间的不可逆性、未来的不确定性和系统的自组织性。 相似文献
9.
Kaatje Bollaerts Marc Aerts Christel Faes Koen Grijspeerdt Jeroen Dewulf Koen Mintiens 《Risk analysis》2008,28(2):427-440
The quantification of the relationship between the amount of microbial organisms ingested and a specific outcome such as infection, illness, or mortality is a key aspect of quantitative risk assessment. A main problem in determining such dose-response models is the availability of appropriate data. Human feeding trials have been criticized because only young healthy volunteers are selected to participate and low doses, as often occurring in real life, are typically not considered. Epidemiological outbreak data are considered to be more valuable, but are more subject to data uncertainty. In this article, we model the dose-illness relationship based on data of 20 Salmonella outbreaks, as discussed by the World Health Organization. In particular, we model the dose-illness relationship using generalized linear mixed models and fractional polynomials of dose. The fractional polynomial models are modified to satisfy the properties of different types of dose-illness models as proposed by Teunis et al . Within these models, differences in host susceptibility (susceptible versus normal population) are modeled as fixed effects whereas differences in serovar type and food matrix are modeled as random effects. In addition, two bootstrap procedures are presented. A first procedure accounts for stochastic variability whereas a second procedure accounts for both stochastic variability and data uncertainty. The analyses indicate that the susceptible population has a higher probability of illness at low dose levels when the combination pathogen-food matrix is extremely virulent and at high dose levels when the combination is less virulent. Furthermore, the analyses suggest that immunity exists in the normal population but not in the susceptible population. 相似文献
10.
本文以我国通货膨胀的形成机制为依据,分析通货膨胀与宏观调控手段之间的关系,用此关系建成计量经济模型和辨识出模型的参数,并做了解释和检验. 相似文献