Hill estimator of projections of functional data on principal components

Functional principal component scores are commonly used to reduce mathematically infinitely dimensional functional data to finite dimensional vectors. In certain applications, most notably in finance, these scores exhibit tail behaviour consistent with the assumption of regular variation. Knowledge of the index of the regular variation, α, is needed to apply methods of extreme value theory. The most commonly used method of the estimation of α is the Hill estimator. We derive conditions under which the Hill estimator computed from the sample scores is consistent for the tail index of the unobservable population scores.     

市场分割、政企关系与异地市场拓展

中国的市场仍旧存在某种程度的分割，如何突破这种市场分割到异地拓展市场是企业要考虑的现实问题。以前的研究主要是从省级层面或国家层面进行宏观分析。文章创新地从政企关系视角入手来考察市场分割情形下微观层面的企业异地市场拓展，也是首先把市场分割（和异地市场）分为省内（本市外）市场、省外市场和海外市场三个不同层面来研究的论文。用世界银行的调查数据从微观企业个体层面检验了企业异地市场拓展的可能。实证研究结果发现，市场分割确实阻碍了企业异地市场拓展，但这仅限于省内市场而不是省外市场。此外，市场分割是有方向性的，从地方保护主义严重的市场里走出来的企业更容易拓展异地市场，但此结论仅适用于国内市场拓展而不适用于海外市场拓展。良好的政企关系是有利于企业异地市场拓展的，但仅限于省外市场，对省内市场以及海外市场是无效的。文章解释了其中的原因，并分析了对于企业实践的启示。     

Still-births among the offspring of male radiation workers at the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant: detailed results and statistical aspects

Summary. This study investigates whether there was evidence of increasing risk of still-birth with increasing paternal exposure to ionizing radiation received during employment at the Sellafield nuclear installation before the child was conceived. A significant positive association is found between the total paternal preconceptional exposure to external ionizing radiation and the risk of still-birth (after adjustment for year of birth, social class, birth order and paternal age, odds ratio at 100 mSv 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.04–1.45)). A summary of the principal scientific findings of this study has been published in the Lancet . This paper describes in detail the statistical methods that were used in the investigation and presents the results in full.     

Modelling daily multivariate pollutant data at multiple sites

Summary. This paper considers the spatiotemporal modelling of four pollutants measured daily at eight monitoring sites in London over a 4-year period. Such multiple-pollutant data sets measured over time at multiple sites within a region of interest are typical. Here, the modelling was carried out to provide the exposure for a study investigating the health effects of air pollution. Alternative objectives include the design problem of the positioning of a new monitoring site, or for regulatory purposes to determine whether environmental standards are being met. In general, analyses are hampered by missing data due, for example, to a particular pollutant not being measured at a site, a monitor being inactive by design (e.g. a 6-day monitoring schedule) or because of an unreliable or faulty monitor. Data of this type are modelled here within a dynamic linear modelling framework, in which the dependences across time, space and pollutants are exploited. Throughout the approach is Bayesian, with implementation via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.     

基于主成分分析的我国西部地区间产业结构转换能力评价

产业结构的演进和转换是经济发展的本质特征,也是促进经济持续稳定协调发展的关键。西部地区产业结构转换能力的地区差异十分明显,本文阐述了影响地区产业结构转换的一般因素,并通过主成分分析方法对影响西部地区产业结构转换的主要因素进行了分析,并对西部各地区产业结构转换能力、转换速度以及转换方向进行了分析评价。     

加强课堂教学质量监控 提高教学质量

加强课堂教学质量监控是提高学校教学质量的重要保证。端正对教学质量监控的认识 ,对其体系组成、工作方法进行研究探索 ,全面推进学生素质教育 ,培养新型人才 ,推动学校教学改革 ,提高教学质量效益有着重要的意义。     

"生态旅游"概念探微

选取国外 44个生态旅游定义作为研究对象 ,通过确认关键词、对关键词进行聚类分析 ,将定义内容归纳为 6大类 11组分 ,进而构建生态旅游概念模型。在检验模型理论上的可靠性和实践上的适应性后 ,依据模型提出自己的生态旅游定义     

论苏共党内民主的历史教训

苏联共产党党内长期过度集权 ,缺乏民主是苏共垮台的主要原因之一。苏联共产党就党内民主建设方面提供的历史教训是 :搞好党内民主必须坚持民主集中制原则 ;搞好党内民主必须把党的权力中心转移到党的代表大会上来 ;搞好党内民主必须建立健全的党内监督机构。     

向城市社区居委会跨越性转变——“城中村”转型发展系列研究之二

“城中村”是我国农村城市化进程中出现的一种特殊现象。积极妥善解决“城中村”问题 ,加快“城中村”转型发展 ,使其真正融入城市 ,是城市化发展的迫切需要 ,也是这些村自身经济和社会发展的迫切需要。“城中村”的转型发展 ,关键在于管理体制的转变。传统的路子是从村委会转为居委会 ,但在全国推进城市社区建设的今天 ,不必要也不应该再走这个弯路 ,而应该直接向城市社区居委会跨越性转变。这种转变是必要的 ,也是可能的。要积极探索和采取切实有效的对策和措施 ,促进“城中村”跨越性转变     

企业内部市场化解析

企业内部市场化是当代企业管理创新和组织创新的一个重要趋势,它涉及的是企业与市场的关系及企业的边界这一经济学的重要命题,在此基础上具体分析了企业内部市场化的特点、类型以及产生的过程,探讨了企业内部市场化对于促进我国的企业改革和提高企业管理水平的重要意义。