Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

基于债务协商视角的债转股定量研究

针对我国政府、企业和银行等金融机构共同关注的债转股问题，基于债务协商谈判思想，建立部分债务股权互换模型，计算公司证券价格，探讨了债转股对公司价值、破产概率、破产损失成本和资本结构的影响，给出了银行等债权人愿意债转股的充分条件。结果表明：在事先破产清算协议贷款下，事后全部债转股总能提高公司股权价值，但并不一定能提高债券价值。只有其协商谈判能力满足一定条件，公司债权人才愿意事后选择债转股，实现帕累托改进、提高社会福利水平。其次，在公司股东协商谈判能力的一定范围内，部分债转股能提高公司价值，其最优转股债息比例随着公司资产风险的增大而增加。再次，债转股能降低公司破产风险和破产损失成本，但同时也提高了债券风险溢价。最后，随着股东谈判能力增强，最优协商转股债务比例、杠杆率都减少，而债券风险溢价增大。本文所得结果对我国政府、企业和银行如何实施债转股提供理论参考和实践指导。     

家用电冰箱节能阀的可行性研究

针对家用电冰箱开、停机过程产生的能量损失，提出了一种节能阀的设想，并采用模拟节能阀系统加以验证，实验结果表明了它的可行性和节能效果。     

增长曲线模型非齐次线性估计的可容许性

讨论增长曲线模型Y =X1BX2 +ε中回归矩阵B的函数C1BC2 的估计L1YL2 +A ,在矩阵损失 (LT2 L1)Y +A - (ST2 XT2 S1X1)B (LT2 L1)Y +A - (ST2 XT2 S1X1)B T 下 ,我们得到了非齐次线性估计L1YL2 +A在非齐次线性估计类Г ={L1YL2 +A|L1:t×p ,L2 ;n×n ,A :t×s均为已知实阵 }中可容许的充要条件 :L1YL2在Г0 ={L1YL2 |L1:t×p ,L2 :n×s均为已知实阵 }中容许且当LT2 XT2 L1X1=ST2 XT2 S1X1时有A =0。     

TESTING SPHERICITY UNDER A MIXTURE MODEL

The robustness of Mauchly's sphericity test criterion when sampling from a mixture of two multivariate normal distributions is studied. The distribution of the sphericity test criterion when the sample covariance matrix has a non-central Wishart density of rank one is derived in terms of Meijer's G-functions; its distribution under the mixture model is then deduced. The robustness is studied by computing actual significance levels of the test under the mixture model using the critical values under the usual normal model.     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

论缔约过失责任的赔偿范围

赔偿范围问题在缔约过失责任理论中一直颇有争议。本文基于缔约过失责任概念的基本界定,认为缔约过失责任损害赔偿的基本范围为信赖利益的损失。相应地,为契合缔约过失责任理论的创立初衷和平衡当事人的利益,信赖利益的赔偿范围应包括了间接利益、非财产上损失以及第三人等损失,但应以履行利益为限。     

论非实践性真理标准说的历史形态

非实践性真理标准是前马克思真理标准说的共性。它有理性、感觉、经验和实验等四种历史形态 :理性标准表面上肯定真理的客观性 ,实际上否认真理的客观性 ;感觉标准具有主观唯心主义的特点 ;经验标准承认真理的客观性但还停留在认识的领域 ;实验标准预告着科学真理标准即将诞生。实践标准的确立来之不易 ,是一场认识论上的革命     

上海市空气污染造成人群健康经济损失的研究

文章通过对上海市空气污染季节性状况的描述 ,分析了各种污染物的污染程度和变化趋势 ,并利用对上海某市级医院的实地调查数据 ,对空气污染物与医院呼吸系统疾病患者日门诊量之间的相关关系进行研讨 ,建立了多元分析模型 ,探讨了患者健康经济损失的计量方法 ,并对由空气污染造成呼吸系统疾病患者健康经济损失进行了估算。研究表明 ,在其他条件不变的情况下 ,NOX 日指数每增长 10 % ,被调查医院呼吸系统疾病患者的日门诊人次增加 7 7人次 ,而这些疾病患者由于患病产生的年度健康经济损失为 2 11万元。据此作保守的推断估计 ,上海市一年内因NOX 超标而发生的呼吸系统疾病门诊行为造成的健康经济损失可以达到 4 2亿元。同样 ,SO2 和TSP造成门诊患者的健康经济损失分别为 1 5亿元和 0 86亿元