清末广东的盗匪问题与政府清乡——从社会治理看清朝统治的末势

盗匪问题是清末广东突出的社会问题,在当时的文献中,常能见到诸如"粤东之盗,甲于天下"的说法。盗匪威胁民众的生命财产安全,造成社会动荡,不少也卷入革命党人发动的反清起义,危及当权者的统治。为消弭匪乱,稳定社会,清政府当局推行严厉清乡政策,以军事手段打击盗匪,而效果却并不明显。清末广东匪患的严重化以及政府于治理上的疲软处境,为我们进一步理解清末社会及清政府垮台的社会基础提供了更广的视角。     

东北作家群的东北情结

由于独有的生存和创作经历,东北作家群的作品呈现出地域文学特色,这种地域文学特色除了在题材、主题和审美追求等方面表现出共性之外,还表现在一些特有的东北情结上,这些情结或隐藏或凸显,总让读者在不知不觉中受到东北文化气息的感染,文化意蕴已经作为内化了的创作驱动力在作家创作和作品文本中表现为地域情结,这些情结无疑为读者提供了极具地域风情的审美享受。     

The Dynamic Pivot Mechanism

We consider truthful implementation of the socially efficient allocation in an independent private‐value environment in which agents receive private information over time. We propose a suitable generalization of the pivot mechanism, based on the marginal contribution of each agent. In the dynamic pivot mechanism, the ex post incentive and ex post participation constraints are satisfied for all agents after all histories. In an environment with diverse preferences it is the unique mechanism satisfying ex post incentive, ex post participation, and efficient exit conditions. We develop the dynamic pivot mechanism in detail for a repeated auction of a single object in which each bidder learns over time her true valuation of the object. The dynamic pivot mechanism here is equivalent to a modified second price auction.     

The Wild West,the industrial East and the outlaw

This paper argues that dominant academic understandings of the Wild West overstate the extent to which it can be understood as a pro-capitalist mythology. The paper begins with an account of the making of the mythic West, particularly in the second half of the nineteenth century. I then consider the cultural economics of this process, noting that, for most of the twentieth century, the Western was the dominant genre across whole swathes of cultural production. This is followed by a consideration of the place of the outlaw and related figures that appear to problematize the legitimacy of new forms of social order, particularly in relation to land and ownership. I conclude with some thoughts on what it might mean to propose an anti-modern and radical reading of the Western, and to connect the cowboy with other social bandits, such as the pirate and the Mafiosi.     

民国时期广东土匪的组织形态分析

民国时期的广东 ,土匪繁多。本文运用社会学与历史学知识 ,对广东土匪的组织形态作了初步探析 ,着重鉴别了其类型 ,探讨了其组织形式 ,分析了其政治化现象     

民国七年山东匪患问题述论

民国七年(1918年),山东匪患猖獗,连年不断,危害巨大。为肃清土匪,以靖地方,政府当局采取了军事剿除、剿抚兼施、举办清乡、筹措省际联防、维护河务路政、高价悬赏主要杆首等等办法。但是,因未能从根本上消灭产生土匪的根源,始终没有铲除此社会毒瘤。     

"盗寇"与宋代潮州社会

本文对宋代潮州地区活动与宋代潮州社会的相关问题加以论述。     

Bayesian adaptive bandit-based designs using the Gittins index for multi-armed trials with normally distributed endpoints

Adaptive designs for multi-armed clinical trials have become increasingly popular recently because of their potential to shorten development times and to increase patient response. However, developing response-adaptive designs that offer patient-benefit while ensuring the resulting trial provides a statistically rigorous and unbiased comparison of the different treatments included is highly challenging. In this paper, the theory of Multi-Armed Bandit Problems is used to define near optimal adaptive designs in the context of a clinical trial with a normally distributed endpoint with known variance. We report the operating characteristics (type I error, power, bias) and patient-benefit of these approaches and alternative designs using simulation studies based on an ongoing trial. These results are then compared to those recently published in the context of Bernoulli endpoints. Many limitations and advantages are similar in both cases but there are also important differences, specially with respect to type I error control. This paper proposes a simulation-based testing procedure to correct for the observed type I error inflation that bandit-based and adaptive rules can induce.     

由张君案新闻报道剖析匪案报道的社会效果

张君案是一个建国以来罕见的暴力集团犯罪案。如果说警方与新闻界是在张君案上打了漂亮仗的话,那么理论界与文艺界便可以说是打了败仗。因为他们本来是可以从破案后青少年的不良反应中剖析出一些有益的经验教训来进行反思和加以补救的,结果却因置身事外而错过了一次机会。     

Optimal stopping for Brownian motion with applications to sequential analysis and option pricing

Herman Chernoff made fundamental contributions to analytical and computational methods for solving optimal stopping problems for Brownian motion. He also showed how these optimal stopping problems are closely related to some basic problems in sequential analysis and singular stochastic control. This paper gives a survey of these and related developments and describes some recent applications to option valuation in financial economics.