Confidence intervals,significance values,maximum likelihood estimates,etc. sharpened into Occam’s razors

Abstract

Confidence sets, p values, maximum likelihood estimates, and other results of non-Bayesian statistical methods may be adjusted to favor sampling distributions that are simple compared to others in the parametric family. The adjustments are derived from a prior likelihood function previously used to adjust posterior distributions.     

地力山土族生计方式与家庭经济结构

地力山是甘南藏族自治州卓尼县杓哇土族乡的一个纯土族自然村。由于特定的历史、自然和社会原因,形成了以农为主牧业为辅的传统生计方式。随着时代的变化,兼事务工成为了传统生计方式的补充。在地力山土族家庭经济过程中,生计方式支配着资源要素的投入方向,而资源要素在不同方向上的配置最终构成其家庭经济的各个形态,形态之间以及具体形态内部存在的动态性,为其进一步调整提供了内在条件。     

BAYESIAN SUBSET SELECTION AND MODEL AVERAGING USING A CENTRED AND DISPERSED PRIOR FOR THE ERROR VARIANCE

This article proposes a new data‐based prior distribution for the error variance in a Gaussian linear regression model, when the model is used for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging. For a given subset of variables in the model, this prior has a mode that is an unbiased estimator of the error variance but is suitably dispersed to make it uninformative relative to the marginal likelihood. The advantage of this empirical Bayes prior for the error variance is that it is centred and dispersed sensibly and avoids the arbitrary specification of hyperparameters. The performance of the new prior is compared to that of a prior proposed previously in the literature using several simulated examples and two loss functions. For each example our paper also reports results for the model that orthogonalizes the predictor variables before performing subset selection. A real example is also investigated. The empirical results suggest that for both the simulated and real data, the performance of the estimators based on the prior proposed in our article compares favourably with that of a prior used previously in the literature.     

中国工业反哺农业的实现机制和路径选择

实施工业反哺农业政策是中国进入工业化中期后的重大战略决策。反哺的主体应当包括政府、企业和社会组织;反哺的实现机制相应地包括市场机制、政府机制和社会机制;反哺的政策取向是“造血”型反哺、重点型反哺、适度型反哺;反哺应当遵循的原则包括统筹协调原则、互利双赢原则、效率公平原则、循序渐进原则。工业反哺农业应选择多条途径。     

论现代编辑手段在高校学报工作中的运用

网络技术改变了高校学报工作模式,传统的"一支笔"、"一张纸"的编辑手段将被计算机屏幕所代替.在这种背景下,学报采取现代编辑手段,把计算机网络技术和编辑工作有机地结合起来,实现网上投稿、网上审稿、网上编辑加工等现代手段,全面提升高校学报的整体质量.     

利用现代教学手段改革传统教学模式

在论文中对大学本科教育中传统教学模式所存在的问题和现代教学手段的优势进行了讨论 ,并对利用现代教学手段改善传统教学模式的必要性和可行性进行了分析 ,针对传统教学模式存在的问题和学院的现状 ,提出了相应的改进措施     

利益导向与社会控制

建立正确的利益导向 ,是实现社会控制和管理的必要条件。平等互利、相互依存、协调发展、以及实现人的利益的全面发展是正确处理个人与他人、个人与国家以及个人各种利益关系的争取的利益导向的内容。给予或剥夺一定的利益是社会控制的核心和实质。综合地运用经济、法律、行政、道德的手段调控人们的行为 ,才能收到预期效果。单纯的运用一种手段 ,边际效果必然递减。     

苏秦“合纵术”的辩证法底蕴

一般地说 ,苏秦“合纵术”被世人冠之以权变之术。但从哲学角度予以考察 ,可以发现合纵术具备的深厚辩证法底蕴 ,主要表现在 3个方面 :合纵术建立的理论依据是客观存在的现实矛盾 ;合纵术构思的思维方法是矛盾分析方法 ;合纵术全面体现了矛盾在事物发展中的作用。因此 ,苏秦的合纵术自发地合乎唯物辩证法的基本要求 ,是处于朴素状态的有效的社会整合方法 ,对我国当前解决社会矛盾、稳定社会秩序 ,意义很大     

我国区域刑事法律冲突初探

我国各民族之间的差异、民族区域自治制度及其自治权的存在是我国区域刑事法律冲突产生的基本原因,而通过制定顾全大局、兼顾特别的变通性、补充性刑法规范,可缓解这一冲突;通过加快少数民族地区的发展步伐,逐步消除民族之间的政治、经济、文化上的差距,进而达到彻底消除这一冲突,实现法制统一的良好局面。     

Bayesian analysis of elapsed times in continuous‐time Markov chains

The authors consider Bayesian analysis for continuous‐time Markov chain models based on a conditional reference prior. For such models, inference of the elapsed time between chain observations depends heavily on the rate of decay of the prior as the elapsed time increases. Moreover, improper priors on the elapsed time may lead to improper posterior distributions. In addition, an infinitesimal rate matrix also characterizes this class of models. Experts often have good prior knowledge about the parameters of this matrix. The authors show that the use of a proper prior for the rate matrix parameters together with the conditional reference prior for the elapsed time yields a proper posterior distribution. The authors also demonstrate that, when compared to analyses based on priors previously proposed in the literature, a Bayesian analysis on the elapsed time based on the conditional reference prior possesses better frequentist properties. The type of prior thus represents a better default prior choice for estimation software.