非统计专业统计学教育刍议

针对非统计专业统计学教育目前存在的问题,阐述了提高对统计学重要性的认识是保证统计教学效果的前提;统计学教学环节的改革是提高教学效果的重要保证;统计教师的业务素质是提高统计教学效果的关键。     

Divergence-based estimation and testing with misclassified data

The well-known chi-squared goodness-of-fit test for a multinomial distribution is generally biased when the observations are subject to misclassification. In Pardo and Zografos (2000) the problem was considered using a double sampling scheme and ø-divergence test statistics. A new problem appears if the null hypothesis is not simple because it is necessary to give estimators for the unknown parameters. In this paper the minimum ø-divergence estimators are considered and some of their properties are established. The proposed ø-divergence test statistics are obtained by calculating ø-divergences between probability density functions and by replacing parameters by their minimum ø-divergence estimators in the derived expressions. Asymptotic distributions of the new test statistics are also obtained. The testing procedure is illustrated with an example.     

Proportional reversed hazard rate model and its applications

The purpose of this paper is to study the structure and properties of the proportional reversed hazard rate model (PRHRM) in contrast to the celebrated proportional hazard model (PHM). The monotonicity of the hazard rate and the reversed hazard rate of the model is investigated. Some criteria of aging are presented and the inheritance of the aging notions (of the base distribution) by the PRHRM is studied. Characterizations of the model involving Fisher information are presented and the statistical inference of the parameters is discussed. Finally, it is shown that several members of the proportional reversed hazard rate class have been found to be useful and flexible in real data analysis.     

北魏孝文帝定姓族制度散论

北魏孝文帝实施定姓族 ,首先 ,它既是北魏汉化政策的继续和发展 ,也是北魏历史发展的客观需要 ,在当时具有一定的现实意义 ;其次 ,姓族制度的实施在消除民族间的隔阂、加强北魏政权的统治以及提高鲜卑人的文化水平等方面也起了一定的积极作用 ;其三 ,姓族制度的实施与北魏政权的政治有密切的关系 ,不同时期所发挥的作用不同 ,应作具体分析 ,不能说姓族制对北魏政权的灭亡起了最直接、最主要的作用。     

A Semi-Parametric Quantile Function Estimator for Use in Bootstrap Estimation Procedures

In this note we develop a new quantile function estimator called the tail extrapolation quantile function estimator. The estimator behaves asymptotically exactly the same as the standard linear interpolation estimator. For finite samples there is small correction towards estimating the extreme quantiles. We illustrate that by employing this new estimator we can greatly improve the coverage probabilities of the standard bootstrap percentile confidence intervals. The method does not reqiure complicated calculations and hence it should appeal to the statistical practitioner.     

中国古代时空秩序的修辞建构及其理据

根据日照长短和方向建构时空秩序,是中国古人对与自身生存息息相关的太阳长期细微观察的结果,这里存在着客观参照物的选择、主体思维方式以及学理层面的解释依据。     

In Memoriam: Emeritus Professor Henry Oliver Lancaster, AO FAA 1 February 1913 – 2 December 2001

The death, in Sydney, of Oliver Lancaster marks the end of an era in the histories of the Statistical Society of Australia, which (in its previous existence as the Statistical Society of New South Wales) he helped found in 1947, and of the Australian Journal of Statistics of which he was founding editor (1959–1971). Oliver Lancaster was Foundation Professor of Mathematical Statistics at the University of Sydney (1959–1978), where he spent his life as student and academic. During his academic career, he achieved scholarly distinction in at least four fields: mathematical statistics, medical and public health statistics, the history of medicine and of statistics, and statistical bibliography. With E.J.G. Pitman (1897–1993), M.H. Belz (1897–1975), E.A. Cornish (1909–1973) and P.A.P. Moran (1917–1988) he was part of a cohort of renowned Australian mathematical statisticians who laid the foundation of the glory days of Australian mathematical statistics. This obituary and tribute focuses on some of these aspects, within a broader historical picture.     

Maximum Likelihood Inference for Log-linear Models Subject to Constraints of Double Monotone Dependence

To model an hypothesis of double monotone dependence between two ordinal categorical variables A and B usually a set of symmetric odds ratios defined on the joint probability function is subject to linear inequality constraints. Conversely in this paper two sets of asymmetric odds ratios defined, respectively, on the conditional distributions of A given B and on the conditional distributions of B given A are subject to linear inequality constraints. If the joint probabilities are parameterized by a saturated log-linear model, these constraints are nonlinear inequality constraints on the log-linear parameters. The problem here considered is a non-standard one both for the presence of nonlinear inequality constraints and for the fact that the number of these constraints is greater than the number of the parameters of the saturated log-linear model.This work has been supported by the COFIN 2002 project, references 2002133957_002, 2002133957_004. Preliminary findings have been presented at SIS (Società Italiana di Statistica) Annual Meeting, Bari, 2004.     

Expected sample moments of concomitants of selected order statistics

In this paper, the task of determining expected values of sample moments, where the sample members have been selected based on noisy information, is considered. This task is a recurring problem in the theory of evolution strategies. Exact expressions for expected values of sums of products of concomitants of selected order statistics are derived. Then, using Edgeworth and Cornish-Fisher approximations, explicit results that depend on coefficients that can be determined numerically are obtained. While the results are exact only for normal populations, it is shown experimentally that including skewness and kurtosis in the calculations can yield greatly improved results for other distributions.     

A relation for the covariances of order statistics from n independent and non-identically distributed random variables

We derive a simple relation satisfied by the covariances of order statistics in the i.i.d. case and then generalize it to the case when the variables are independent and non-identically distributed. This relation could be employed successfully either to check the calculations or to reduce the amount of direct computations involved in evaluating the covariances of order statistics from an outlier model.