Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

历史变局、国家兴衰与发展之路——三次千年变局叠加下的中国特色社会主义发展道路

每当先进的发展制度开始取代落后的发展制度时，整个世界格局就会进入重大的转换阶段。在中国五千年的发展历史中，有两次重大的历史变局完全改变了中国历史发展轨迹并深远地影响了当前中国的发展模式。新时代下的中国作为前两次历史变局影响的客体，曾经既是先进发展制度取代落后发展制度的受益者，也经历过作为落后发展制度主体而被先进发展制度冲击的过程。目前世界正处于第三次先进发展制度与落后发展制度交替的历史变局阶段，作为第三次重大历史变局的主体，在三次千年历史变局叠加的背景下，能否有效地认识、适应并改造利用前两次历史变局的经验与教训，构建系统性、科学性、可行性、领先性的中国特色社会主义制度，将决定中国在本次历史变局中能否顺利成为先进发展制度的主体从而实现民族复兴。     

Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment

Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.     

高性能可重构DSP处理器的数据通路设计

介绍了高性能定点可重构DSP处理器的数据通路设计。该数据通路以功能强大的16位定点计算单元为基础,搭建起高速16位数据处理平台;并能以单指令流多数据流的方式灵活支持多维向量运算;通过重构的方法有效地支持了32位数据处理。     

论我国法院调解的促进和规范

随着经济的发展 ,法制的完善以及审判方式改革的深化 ,法院调解这一纠纷解决方式以其独特的优点 ,在司法实践中 ,越来越显示其重要性。时代赋予法院调解新的价值的同时 ,也使其原有的法律规定弊端凸现。本文拟从法院调解三原则的地位分析中寻找促进和规范法院调解的途径 ,并运用新证据规则加以落实。     

网络工期成本优化技术

本文提出利用列表和在表上逐步进行修改,最终得到工期成本优化问题的最优解的方法。该方法的特点是直观、易于操作。     

Weakly implementable social choice rules

Previous investigations have shown that a social choice function which is partially implementable must be characterized by pervasive veto power. This paper investigates how much additional latitude in the design of social choice functions, and how much relief from this vetoers result, can be achieved by examining multi-valued social choice rules and relaxing the requirement of partial implementability to a requirement that we call weak partial implementability. We find that the power structures which characterize partially implementable social choice functions, including the veto properties, also characterize weakly partially implementable social choice rules. The conclusion is that invoking multi-valuedness and implementation of appealing social choice rules in strong Nash equilibria. Our results apparently exhaust the possibilities for implementation in strong Nash equilibrium. If any implementation possibility results are to be achieved, they can apparently come only by weakening the equilibrium requirement.     

中国大陆教育哲学25年发展轨迹的回顾与反思

本文从20世纪80年代以来中国大陆教育哲学学科制度建设和学理建设的发展轨迹两个层面入手,回顾了中国大陆教育哲学25年来学科建设的发展轨迹,并对教育哲学学科制度建设和学理发展作了理性反思。     

数控机床功能的扩展

本文主要分析了HEIDENHAIN TNC 310数控铣床系统中圆弧铣削指令及螺纹铣削指令,对螺纹铣削功能进行延伸,扩展到圆弧三轴联动,并对螺纹铣削指令格式进行了修改,从而具有圆弧三轴联动铣削功能。     

民族院校新闻传播学科发展的路径选择

民族院校应该是以全面服务于非主流族群作为自身的基本定位，民族院校的新闻传播学科要在准确理解这一定位的基础上确立自身的发展路径，以鲜明的特色建构来强化自身的学科核心竞争力。