中国PMI数据的实际应用——PHI的领先性分析

由于指标的同质性,单纯用PMI来预测其他经济指标的变化是不够的.在实际应用中,发现用多个指标间的力量消长变化,即拟合指标可以更提前发现经济拐点.本文从方法论和实际验证的角度,论述在PMI数据体系中,如何在拟合指标应用、领先相关分析与预测、2007年以来的经济下滑与2008-2009年恢复过程的数据验证几方面用PMI数据预先发现经济走势的变化.     

论国际采购与供应链管理

对采购的价值理念进行了论述,研究和分析了当前中国的采购市场与采购环境。提出建立中国采购经理指数(PMI),实现与世界采购评价标准的接轨。通过中外采购管理的对比,发现中国采购管理的不足和其根源。结合贸易自由化给全球采购带来的机遇与挑战以及现代化物流业的发展对中国采购环境的影响,指出了国际采购的发展趋势。     

企业并购整合中的隐性知识共享机制

许多企业在并购对象选择过程中忽视双方隐性知识的匹配程度与兼容性,并购整合过程中没有及时建立健全隐性知识有效转移和共享的机制及其支撑体系,导致人力资本协同受阻,关系资本、品牌资本和组织资本的大量流失和减损。为了实现并购的协同效应,企业应当建立以共享目标、共享空间、共享标准及共享服务为平台的隐性知识转移机制、学习机制、缓冲机制和沟通机制,并且建立有效的技术支持、组织体系、制度保证以及卓越的企业文化氛围。     

How does decision-making involvement affect perceptions of speed during post-merger integration?

This article offers an empirical demonstration of how different employees perceive the speed of change during the post-merger integration (PMI) process. As such, it adds to the growing body of literature on the speed of integration in the aftermath of a merger or acquisition (M&A). It broadens our understanding of the M&A integration process as it goes beyond binary recommendations of ‘fast’ or ‘slow’ integration by highlighting the relationship between an employee's involvement in the decision-making process and their perception of the speed of change.We conducted a multi-level longitudinal study over a two-and-a-half-year period. Our qualitative research on two not-for-profit, higher education institutions, employed multiple sources of process data. Building from this, our article thus provides not only novel theoretical insights into the PMI process, but equally offers valuable managerial advice on how staff morale, turnover and change resistance might be more efficiently managed during PMI.     

中国PMI(采购经理指数)与其他数据相关性研究(二)

在成熟的市场经济国家,领先指标或体系包括,就业指数(新申领失业表人数)、汇率、利率、股票指数、生产者物价指数(PPI)、新屋开工率等,PMI(采购经理指数)是其中非常重要的一个指标.美国在世界上最早开展这项调查,随之欧洲、日本、新加坡等国家都建立了自己的PMI体系, 中国PMI还只有三年的数据积累,业界研究与应用刚刚起步.以中国PMI的数据结果与先行经济数据的相关性研究中国PMI调查结果.从论证结果看,针对采购经理进行调查的PMI数据,从理论上能够提前反映市场的变动情况,实际数据对比也表明指数结果符合生产序列原理.所述分析方法与工具为国内领先与独有的研究成果.     

PKI技术及其在电子政务中的应用

随着经济全球化和信息技术的高速发展,电子政务中的安全问题也显得尤其重要.PKI技术作为信息安全技术的核心,能够有效地解决电子政务中的各种安全问题.本文旨在加深人们对PKI技术的了解,从而有利于解决我国电子政务发展中面临的安全问题.     

基于PMI分解的制造业损失评估

2008年金融危机对我国制造业造成巨大冲击,对危机的影响进行评估对建立科学的危机预防机制具有重要的意义。文章运用X-13A-S模型将我国制造业PMI进行分解,研究各成分在危机期间的波动情况,分析金融危机的动态演变过程并构建本底趋势线进行损失评估,最后划分金融危机的生命周期。结论表明：①X-13A-S模型对指数调整效果较好,长期波动趋势分为三个时期;季节成分波动表现为“三波峰、三波谷”;异常值与危机事件相对应。②全面爆发前期PMI指数损失5.11%,平均损失1.28%,爆发后期指数损失49.31%,平均损失4.11%,本轮危机共损失54.42个百分点。③2008年1月至4月为生成期,2008年5月至12月为全面爆发期,2009年1月至5月为衰退期,2009年6月至8月为消亡期,整个危机持续16个月。④全面爆发时期以8月份为分界点,表现出“前期趋势-循环成分,后期不规则变动”的动态机制。     

Advancing post-merger integration studies: A study of a persistent organizational routine and embeddedness in broader societal context

Studies analyzing organizational routines in post-merger integration (PMI) studies at the micro level are almost nonexistent. To fill this research gap, the author performs a longitudinal exploratory case study of an admissions routine of an art college undergoing a merger with a larger university, drawing on advances in routine dynamics literature. The study enhances understanding of PMI challenges by depicting routines' internal dynamics, their incompatibility, and the role of broader context in shaping their performances post-merger. The findings trace resistance to PMI to routine incompatibility caused by the simultaneous presence of multiple understandings (ostensive aspects) for integration, generated by the quest for efficiency-based synergies and continuity within the university post-merger, and for preservation, inherited from the pre-merger era and the routine embeddedness within the local context. The findings shed new light on the post-merger integration–preservation dilemma by illustrating how the interplay of routine participants’ agency and routine embeddedness within the organization and broader societal context constrains PMI, in spite of an intended full consolidation plan, as routine participants enact the routine in the emerging context.