深度老龄化对我国劳动就业的潜在影响

对我国就业人口现状,2000-2010年城市、城镇、乡村人口就业速度,我国三大产业就业人口变化及人口年龄组劳动参与率变化的研究表明:若退休年龄不变,2030年我国潜在劳动力将比2010年减少14%;若男女退休年龄分别推迟5年,则2030年潜在劳动力仍将与2010年相当。然而,青年劳动力的比例下降快,农村尤其明显;2020年以后我国劳动力递减速度快,2040年我国60岁以上、65岁以上和80岁以上老年人口比例将超过28%、22%和4%。近20年我国经济发展很快,但面临老龄化的严重挑战,老龄化通过劳动力老化、社会保障、生产成本、商品出口、社会消费、货币汇率等途径,对经济持久地产生影响。     

Winnicott’s “Potential Space” and the Jewish Study Hall for social work students,faculty and practitioners

Abstract

The article addresses the potential interface and dialogue between academic and quasi-academic spaces. In particular, it examines the space of the Jewish Study Hall (Beit Midrash) as facilitative of the professional as well as personal development of social work students and practitioners in an Israeli college. We examine how Winnicott’s potential space concept contributes to understanding the Study Hall’s uniqueness as an extracurricular learning space within the School of Social Work. Twenty participants in the Beit Midrash for Judaism and Social Work took part in the study. Thematic analysis of transcribed sessions revealed three themes: (1) The Beit Midrash as a peaceful, safe and inclusive physical space; (2) The Beit Midrash as a space for playing out different realities; and (3) The Beit Midrash as contributing to social work training. Findings indicate that potential spaces that embrace the metaphysical world can help students engaged in religion and spirituality to complement and expand their academic training. We conclude by recommending that Winnicottian potential spaces that embrace the metaphysical world be integrated in social work programmes.     

“一带一路”战略与中国对阿拉伯国家出口潜力分析

欧美的贸易保护主义盛起之时转变外贸地理方向成为我国外贸的一项重要工作,恰逢中国率先提出的“一带一路”战略规划了东亚开放的地区主义,处于“一带一路”交汇处的阿拉伯国家便成为了我们天然的经贸合作伙伴,从而对阿拉伯国家的外贸出口呈现出愈来愈强的重要性。本文基于贸易引力模型,通过中国对阿拉伯国家联盟中的20个国家2001年～2010年间的货物贸易出口数据,测算了同各国间的贸易潜力,基于中国与阿拉伯国家间存在的较大贸易潜力提出了几点结论与启示。     

Central Limit Theorem approximations for the number of runs in Markov-dependent binary sequences

We consider Markov-dependent binary sequences and study various types of success runs (overlapping, non-overlapping, exact, etc.) by examining additive functionals based on state visits and transitions in an appropriate Markov chain. We establish a multivariate Central Limit Theorem for the number of these types of runs and obtain its covariance matrix by means of the recurrent potential matrix of the Markov chain. Explicit expressions for the covariance matrix are given in the Bernoulli and a simple Markov-dependent case by expressing the recurrent potential matrix in terms of the stationary distribution and the mean transition times in the chain. We also obtain a multivariate Central Limit Theorem for the joint number of non-overlapping runs of various sizes and give its covariance matrix in explicit form for Markov dependent trials.     

身势语在英语教学中的运用

在英语教学过程中,为交流信息、传递感情,教师在使用语言交际的同时,还会使用多种非语言交际手段,身势语则是非语言交际中表现力最强也是最丰富的一种,并且在交际中有着口语无法替代、只可意会难以言传的魅力。在英语教学活动中,教师能否正确运用身势语,对能否营造学习英语的浓郁文化氛围,能否激活学生的积极学习兴趣,能否潜移默化地影响学生注意力,都起着潜在的重要作用。身势语是英语教学中潜在的隐性力量,关系着英语教学能否有效进行。     

健康经济研究领域的潜在问题分析

从卫生服务的成本核算与定价、疾病负担与生命质量的测算、健康经济学技术分析方法的改进以及健康投资主体的微观化等六个方面阐述了当前健康经济研究领域的潜在问题。     

论《战国策》的"地理势能"

《战国策》作为战国典籍,在思维上具有发散特征,主张注重对形势的顺应和改造,言辞上磅礴恣肆,较之战国时代其他典籍,有着鲜明的个性特色。作者由《战国策》4种“势”的情况中的地势,引出了“地理势能”这个新概念,认为地理的分裂造成了这种潜在的蓄势力量,从而形成了战国中的外交合和力与张力,对策士的心理和行为产生了影响,并因此造就了《战国策》中的一系列特征。同时还分析了地理势能与4种“势”的关系,其中地理势能与时势、事势是并向的,与人势是对向的。     

浅论环境犯罪危险犯

环境犯罪危险犯从类型上来看，大致可以分为两类：一类是具体危险犯和抽象危险犯，一类是故意危险犯和过失危险犯。当前，西方发达国家多已对环境犯罪危险犯有了完备的刑事立法，现代的环境立法价值取向的转变以及环境犯罪的特点决定了确立环境犯罪危险犯具有必要性，因此，我国也应尽早对环境犯罪危险犯进行刑事立法。     

Monte-Carlo Sensitivity Analysis for Controlled Direct Effects Using Marginal Structural Models in the Presence of Confounded Mediators

In randomized trials, investigators are frequently interested in estimating the direct effect of a treatment on an outcome that is not relayed by intermediate variables, in addition to the usual intention-to-treat (ITT) effect. Even if the ITT effect is not confounded due to randomization, the direct effect is not identified when unmeasured variables affect the intermediate and outcome variables. Although the unmeasured variables cannot be adjusted for in the models, it is still important to evaluate the potential bias of these variables quantitatively. This article proposes a sensitivity analysis method for controlled direct effects using a marginal structural model that is an extension of the sensitivity analysis method of unmeasured confounding introduced in the context of observational studies. The proposed method is illustrated using a randomized trial of depression.     

东盟基础设施的潜在需求及中国的投资对策

东盟众多发展中经济体的基础设施存量已远不能满足国家经济发展的需要,加大对其基础设施领域的投资合作是中国-东盟双方的共同意愿。根据世界银行的最新数据,东盟在电力、交通和通讯基础设施方面存在着潜在需求,这为中国加大对东盟基础设施投资提供了巨大的机会。中国对东盟基础设施领域的投资占中国对东盟直接投资的主要比重,但是投资的行业却高度集中,有待进一步拓展。中国对东盟的基础设施投资应区分不同国家的发展阶段,基于中国的比较优势和竞争优势进行相应的基础设施投资项目,并在政府大力支持下采用多种渠道广泛筹集资金。